On April 14, the national average price of external three-yuan live pigs fell to 8.7 yuan/kg, the lowest since 2015. On the other hand, funds continued to buy into the &#34;pig farming ETF,&#34; with the China Merchants CSI Animal Husbandry ETF (516670) seeing a net inflow of 137 million yuan for four consecutive trading days.
The sharply falling pig prices are breaking through the breeding cost line across the industry. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, the self-breeding and self-raising model for live pigs has been in a loss for nine consecutive weeks, with losses per head expanding to 423.6 yuan as of April 14, and in some regions, losses per head have exceeded 500 yuan; the losses for the purchased piglet fattening model are even more severe, with losses per head exceeding 600 yuan.
It is noteworthy that this round of losses has spread to the piglet segment, with current losses per piglet approaching 100 yuan, forming a &#34;piglet + fattening&#34; dual-loss pattern, which is a rare situation in recent years. Even for the industry’s strongest cost control player, MUYUAN, its complete breeding cost of 12 yuan/kg is more than 3 yuan/kg lower than the current pig price, resulting in losses of over 300 yuan per live pig when calculated at 100 kg per head.
The ongoing unexpected deep losses have broken the previous stalemate of slow capacity reduction. Data from Zhuochuang Information shows that the sample inventory of breeding sows decreased by 0.98% month-on-month in March 2026, while data from Yongyi Consulting shows a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%, indicating a significant acceleration compared to the capacity reduction speed in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Industry insiders analyze that against the backdrop of dual losses in piglets and fattening, the financial pressure on small and medium-sized farmers has surged, significantly increasing their willingness to passively eliminate breeding sows, while leading enterprises have also begun to gradually slow down their expansion pace and optimize their capacity structure. The speed of breeding sow reduction is expected to accelerate in the second quarter.
Liu Chongjie, the fund manager of China Merchants CSI Animal Husbandry ETF (516670), pointed out that despite the current predicament of continuously low pig prices, although the short-term supply and demand pattern remains relatively loose and pig prices have fallen below the industry's psychological price level, opportunities are gradually emerging. The industry has been in continuous losses for about nine months, approaching the longest loss cycle in history, with small and medium-sized farmers' cash flow continuously consumed and their willingness to actively reduce capacity significantly enhanced, making improvements in the subsequent supply and demand relationship worth looking forward to.
According to calculations based on the breeding cycle, changes in the inventory of breeding sows will be transmitted to the market for commercial pigs in 10 months, which means that the capacity reduction that has been accelerating since March may lead to an initial improvement in the market supply and demand pattern by the end of the third quarter of 2026, when pig prices may gradually stabilize and rebound.
Changjiang Securities believes that the decline in pig prices combined with rising costs has directly led to an increase in the extent of industry losses, with breeding enterprises' cash flow accelerating consumption, and capacity clearance may further accelerate. This round of the cycle may bring about a continuous optimization of the industry competition pattern, with enterprises that truly have cost advantages and cash flow expected to usher in a longer profit cycle, and the pig farming sector is viewed positively overall.
As pig prices hit bottom, the capital market has already begun to speculate on a rebound from the oversold condition. Since April, the CSI Animal Husbandry Index has risen by 5.52%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period. The stock prices of small-cap listed pig companies have been particularly active, with ZHENGBANG TECHNOLOGY and Tech-bank both hitting the daily limit on April 14, and Tech-bank recording two consecutive limit-ups
Related theme ETFs have also seen continuous buying, with the China Merchants CSI Animal Husbandry ETF (516670) receiving a net inflow of 137 million yuan in the past four days, bringing its latest scale to 1.624 billion yuan, a new high since its listing. Its underlying index has a &#34;pig ratio&#34; (publicly listed companies directly related to pig farming) of over 60%, focusing on leading breeding enterprises listed on the A-share market, with a comprehensive fee rate of 0.3%, the lowest among ETFs of the same index.
Risk warning: Funds carry risks, and investment should be cautious

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The breeding industry has suffered losses for nine consecutive months, with the average price of live pigs dropping to 8.7 yuan/kg, the lowest since 2015. Funds are buying into pig farming ETFs, indicating market confidence. The self-breeding and self-raising model for live pigs has incurred a loss of 423.6 yuan, while the external purchase of piglets for fattening has lost over 600 yuan, and losses have also appeared in the piglet segment. Small and medium-sized farmers are facing pressure on their cash flow, leading to an increased willingness to actively eliminate breeding sows, and it is expected that the pace of reduction will accelerate in the second quarter. The supply-demand relationship in the industry is expected to improve by the end of the third quarter of 2026, and pig prices may gradually stabilize and rise

腾讯新闻 - 财经

ZHENGBANG TECHNOLOGY

MUYUAN

WENS

Tech-bank

New Hope

Shennong Group

Aonong Group

Guotai CSI Animal Husbandry ETF

China Merchants CSI Animal Husbandry ETF

China Universal CSI Livestock Breeding Industry ETF

Changjiang Securities

SSE Index

The breeding industry has suffered losses for 9 consecutive months, industry insiders: left-side opportunities may be emerging