<div id="readability-page-1"><div><p>Sustained earnings growth, currency stability and a revival in private capital expenditure will be key triggers for the next phase of market recovery, says <strong>Harish Krishnan</strong>, chief investment officer–equity at Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC. In an interview with <em>Abhishek Kumar</em> in Mumbai, he notes early signs of an earnings upcycle, with improving sales and operating trends across companies. Edited excerpts:</p></div><div><div><div id="article-index-0">  <p><strong>In fast-evolving times like these, how do you manage your funds?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-1">  <p>  Given the large size of our schemes, it is not possible to continuously react to market noise. The core portfolio is also designed with a medium- to long-term view. However, we do take short-term calls with a smaller portion of the portfolio, using this corpus to respond to shifts we expect to play out over the next three to six months. Activity in this segment has been slightly higher in recent weeks, with about 5-10 per cent of the portfolio seeing changes versus the usual 2-3 per cent.</p> </div><div id="article-index-2">  <p><strong>What sectoral shifts did you make in the wake of the US-Iran conflict?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-3">  <p>  The first pocket is energy consumers. These stocks have seen a sharper-than-warranted correction. We believe the impact of the spike in energy prices will be transient, especially for organised players.</p> </div><div id="article-index-4">  <p>  The second is the broader rebuild, or re-industrialisation, opportunity. This extends beyond autos and ancillaries to areas such as pipes and manufacturing. As re-industrialisation gathers pace across regions like Asia, Europe and the US, a wide range of products and inputs will see demand, and we wanted to position for that.</p> </div><div id="article-index-5">  <p>  The third is financials. Our view here is that earnings have not materially changed, but the sector has faced selling pressure largely due to FPI (foreign portfolio investor) outflows.</p> </div><div id="article-index-6">  <p><strong>What key triggers will signal the next phase of market recovery?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-7">  <p>  For us, it eventually comes down to earnings. The first trigger is sustained earnings delivery and greater confidence in double-digit growth. The second is currency stability; while depreciation can support earnings, stability is crucial for broader confidence.</p> </div><div id="article-index-8">  <p>  The third is a revival in private capex. The raw material for future growth is the investment being made today. While companies are generating strong profits, the key question is whether they are willing to deploy that capital. We have seen an increase in the number of companies undertaking large capex over the past couple of years, and we would like to see that trend strengthen further.</p> </div><div id="article-index-9">  <p><strong>What are your earnings growth expectations for the current financial year?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-10">  <p>  At the start of the year, we were looking at earnings growth of around 12-14 per cent for the Nifty 50 companies. Given developments in the energy basket, currency movements, and some near-term disruptions such as inventory losses, there could be some moderation. However, we do not expect the original estimate to be off by more than 1-2 per cent, especially if some of these shocks normalise sooner.</p> </div><div id="article-index-11">  <p><strong>Do you expect foreign inflows to return in the near term?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-12">  <p>  It is hard to predict what global investors will do in the near term, as they operate within their own frameworks. If one believes in India’s economic trajectory, the current positioning presents a relative valuation gap. India’s share of global economic output is currently just under 4 per cent and is likely to rise to 6-8 per cent over the next decade, while its share of global market capitalisation is closer to 3 per cent. Historically, such gaps have tended to correct over time. This should support flows over time, even though the timing remains uncertain.</p> </div><div id="article-index-13">  <p><strong>How do you evaluate current market valuations in light of recent volatility?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-14">  <p>  The value of a company ultimately comes from its competitiveness and its ability to generate returns above its cost of capital while reinvesting efficiently. The key question, therefore, is whether the competitiveness of India Inc has improved or deteriorated over the past 15-18 months.</p> </div><div id="article-index-15">  <p>  Our view is that there have been multiple positive shifts. Domestic demand has been supported by tax changes, and the cost of capital has declined due to both rating improvements and rate cuts. Trade linkages have expanded meaningfully, and the currency has become more competitive for Indian businesses.</p> </div><div id="article-index-16">  <p>  We are already seeing early signs of an earnings pickup, with median companies reporting improved sales and operating profit trends in recent quarters. If this continues, earnings growth should follow.</p> </div><div id="article-index-17">  <p><strong>What’s your view on the information technology (IT) sector?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-18">  <p>  IT services have seen pessimism multiple times in the past. Growth has slowed, and given their size, high double-digit growth may not be realistic.</p> </div><div id="article-index-19">  <p>  However, the argument that AI will structurally erode their relevance does not hold in our view. AI will improve productivity and reduce manpower for some tasks, but it will also expand the opportunity set by enabling broader technology adoption.</p> </div><div id="article-index-20">  <p>  Historically, technology spending has been concentrated in sectors like banking and retail, while much of manufacturing has under-invested. That is likely to change. So while there may be near-term shifts in spending, the broader trend of increasing tech adoption remains intact.</p> </div><div id="article-index-21">  <p>  Also, there have been only a few instances in the past 25 years when IT’s share in total market cap fell below its share of profit pool -- and those periods have typically been opportunities. We believe this is another such phase.</p> </div><div id="article-index-22">  <p><strong>The mid and smallcap allocation in your flexicap fund has risen significantly in recent months. What factors drove this shift?</strong></p> </div><div id="article-index-23">  <p>  We do not take top-down calls on exposure to market-cap segments. The shift is a function of where we are finding opportunities.</p> </div><div id="article-index-24">  <p>  Across sectors where we want to increase exposure -- such as IT services, insurance, banking, chemicals, building materials, retail, and consumer distribution -- we are finding a number of mid and smallcap companies that are actually sector leaders. Many of these businesses offer reasonable valuation comfort along with strong cash flow characteristics, including healthy free cash flow yields.</p> </div><div id="article-index-25">  <p>  As some of the earlier froth in the broader market has come off, these opportunities have become more attractive. As a result, we have increased exposure in areas like chemicals, building materials, consumer durables, retail, and cement, where several niche but strong players exist in the mid- and small-cap space.</p> </div><div id="article-index-26">  <p>To put this in context, our largecap allocation was around 70-72 per cent about 18 months ago, and it has come down to about 56-57 per cent now.</p> </div></div></div></div>

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<p>Harish Krishnan, CIO at Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, anticipates double-digit earnings growth for Nifty 50 firms in FY27, driven by sustained earnings, currency stability, and a revival in private capital expenditure. He notes early signs of an earnings upcycle and sectoral shifts in energy consumers, re-industrialisation, and financials. While expecting 12-14% earnings growth, he acknowledges potential moderation due to energy and currency fluctuations. Krishnan highlights India's economic trajectory and competitiveness as key factors for future foreign inflows and market valuations.</p>

'Still expect double-digit earnings growth for Nifty 50 firms in FY27'