UBS: Meituan's market share in instant retail rose in March, indicating the industry is entering a normalization phase

UBS published a monthly tracking report on instant retail (quick commerce) in mainland China, utilizing QuestMobile's application traffic statistics to identify industry growth trends, competitive dynamics, and the activity and overlap of delivery riders and merchants. As of the latest data on April 12, the channel survey shows that the average daily takeaway order volume of the three major platforms, MEITUAN-W (03690.HK), Alibaba-W (09988.HK) under Taobao, and JD-SW (09618.HK), reached 122 million orders in March, compared to 116 million orders in January and February this year (and 122 million orders in December last year). The recent growth mainly reflects the recovery of merchant activities after the Spring Festival, while industry subsidies may continue to weaken under higher subsidy thresholds.

The bank noted that on April 17, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed a total fine of 3.6 billion RMB on e-commerce and takeaway platforms for food safety violations. With the new regulations from the market regulator taking effect on June 1 and a reiterated stance against takeaway subsidy wars, the bank believes the industry will continue to move towards a more sustainable development direction, emphasizing execution and operational efficiency.

In terms of competition: MEITUAN's market share has increased; the unit economic gap has widened due to the rebound in average order value. The bank uses the proportion of rider time as a proxy indicator for platform order volume share. In March, MEITUAN's share increased by 2 percentage points compared to the first two months, marking the most significant increase since competition intensified in April 2025. This growth came at the expense of Taobao (-1.1 percentage points) and JD (-0.9 percentage points).

UBS estimates that the average daily takeaway order volumes for MEITUAN, Taobao, and JD are approximately 62 million, 52 million, and 8 million, corresponding to market shares of 53%, 41%, and 6% (February: 52%, 41%, and 7%). As MEITUAN's orders exceeding 30 RMB account for over 60%, the bank believes its share growth in gross transaction value (GTV) may be even larger.

The bank's stock preference in the industry: Alibaba (BABA.US) > JD > MEITUAN. Overall, the bank believes the industry is entering a normalization phase and continuously improving profitability. As platforms focus on quality, business sustainability, and cross-selling opportunities, MEITUAN may stand out among its peers