The merger of Tesla and SpaceX may no longer be a question of &#34;if&#34; but rather &#34;when.&#34; The boundaries between these two core assets under Musk are accelerating their dissolution, and investors who have bought into both companies have always held the same thing in their portfolios—Musk himself.
This Wednesday, Musk presided over Tesla's Q1 earnings call. Despite a year-over-year growth of 16%, vehicle sales were barely mentioned; the company's narrative has fully pivoted to energy storage, autonomous taxis, and the humanoid robot Optimus. More strikingly, Tesla invested $2 billion this quarter to purchase SpaceX shares—a rare signal of cross-company capital flow. Meanwhile, SpaceX is preparing for an IPO with a valuation nearing $2 trillion, having previously merged with xAI, Musk's social media and AI company.
The after-hours market remained largely indifferent to the news, with Tesla's share price unchanged. Investors appear to have already digested everything: betting on Tesla or SpaceX is essentially a bet on Musk.
As capital flows deepen and joint projects materialize, the logic of a merger becomes increasingly self-consistent. The only remaining question is how to handle potential conflicts of interest—with Musk being the largest common shareholder of both companies.
<h2>Tesla: Car Business Becomes a &#34;Side Hustle&#34;</h2>
Tesla's narrative is undergoing a fundamental shift.
During this earnings call, vehicle sales were actively marginalized. Although the automotive business still supports the company's cash flow foundation—operating cash flow of $4 billion and free cash flow of $1.4 billion in the first quarter—management's vision points further ahead: robots, artificial intelligence, and the bipedal autonomous humanoid robot Optimus, defined as capable of executing dangerous, repetitive, or mundane tasks.
A sharp expansion in capital expenditures confirms the intensity of this transformation. Musk and the Chief Financial Officer warned that full-year capital expenditure in 2025 will reach $25 billion for semiconductor production and robot factory construction, far exceeding analysts' prior expectations of $20 billion. According to LSEG data, analysts just a year ago forecasted full-year capital expenditure for 2026 at only $11 billion—a prediction revised upward by more than double in just one year.
Some factories are already being reconfigured to prepare for mass production of robots. This enterprise, once defined solely as an electric vehicle company, is increasingly resembling a comprehensive technology platform centered on Musk's vision.
<h2>SpaceX: Valuation and Ambition Expand Together</h2>
SpaceX's moves are equally impressive.
This week, SpaceX disclosed it had proposed acquiring AI programming tool Cursor for $6 billion; if the acquisition falls through, it would pay a $1 billion termination fee. In contrast, Tesla's purchase of $2 billion worth of SpaceX shares in a single quarter appears remarkably &#34;restrained.&#34;
This scale of investment again reinforces the essential characterization of SpaceX: it is a Musk-style &#34;moonshot&#34;—only grounded in a functioning satellite and rocket business.
If SpaceX completes its planned IPO with a valuation nearing $2 trillion, Musk will simultaneously preside over quarterly earnings calls for both public companies. At that point, discussions about merging the two companies will likely become even harder to avoid—after all, the same person drives both securities.
<h2>Terafab: A &#34;Rehearsal&#34; Before the Merger</h2>
The boundaries between the two companies have begun to intersect on a specific project.
Tesla and SpaceX are jointly building a semiconductor factory named &#34;Terafab&#34; in Texas alongside Intel. Musk stated that this collaboration will be reviewed separately by independent directors from both companies to ensure fairness to all shareholders.
However, this governance arrangement faces a structural challenge: the largest shareholder of both companies is Musk himself.
This is the core conflict of interest that any potential merger must confront. However, history shows that non-Musk shareholders of Tesla have historically granted him significant trust. Future public shareholders of SpaceX will likely do the same—and since Musk is expected to hold super-voting shares, the influence of other shareholders at the institutional level remains extremely limited.
<h2>The Endgame: One Musk, One Security</h2>
Whether it is Tesla or SpaceX, their valuation logic is almost entirely unrelated to recent profits or cash flows. The market prices in Musk's personal long-term vision and execution capability.
The core judgment from a column in the UK's Financial Times is: if shareholders truly seek only exposure to Musk, then integrating the two companies into a single security is the logical endgame.
Currently, there is no official news indicating that merger plans have entered a substantive phase. Yet every cross-company capital flow, every joint project, and every convergence in business narratives pushes this endgame closer. For investors, the question has perhaps never been &#34;buy Tesla or buy SpaceX,&#34; but rather—how much do you truly believe in Musk?

Elon Musk's SpaceX plans an IPO, targeting a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, potentially making it one of the world's most valuable companies. With its Starlink global network and industry-leading position in space launches, SpaceX is attracting global investor attention. Can its vision for space exploration and commercial potential support this astronomical valuation? What are your thoughts on SpaceX's future performance?

Elon Musk's SpaceX plans an IPO, targeting a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, potentially making it one of the world's most valuable companies. With its Starlink global network and industry-leading position in space launches, SpaceX is attracting global investor attention. Can its vision for space exploration and commercial potential support this astronomical valuation? What are your thoughts on SpaceX's future performance?

SpaceX Eyes IPO — Is the Space Economy Ready for Liftoff?

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Tesla purchases SpaceX stock; both companies collaborate on a semiconductor plant; SpaceX plans an IPO at a valuation nearing $2 trillion—the boundaries between Musk's two flagship ventures are rapidly dissolving. The market has long seen through the essence: betting on Tesla or SpaceX is merely the same wager on Musk. A merger is only a matter of time

- The potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX seems to be shifting from "if" to "when" as both companies become increasingly intertwined under Elon Musk's leadership.  
- Recent financial activities include Tesla's $2 billion stock purchase in SpaceX, while SpaceX prepares for an almost $2 trillion IPO, emphasizing a deepening collaboration.  
- As the lines blur between the two firms, the discussion around their merger grows inevitable, with investors effectively betting on Musk's continued influence and vision rather than on traditional financial metrics.

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Will Tesla and SpaceX Eventually Merge? Investors Are Betting on Musk, Not the Companies