<div id="readability-page-1"><div>JPMorgan has raised its forecast for Chinese OEMs' market share in Western Europe to 20% by 2028, from its previous estimate of 10% to 15% by 2030. The bank believes China's auto exports are structural in nature and will increasingly dominate global investor narratives.Among the three target regions of Europe, Asia and Latin America, Europe will be the strategic focus given the rapid adoption of new energy vehicles and substantial market potential. With broader product line-ups including battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), alongside enhanced distribution capabilities, Chinese automakers' market share growth in Europe is accelerating.The bank expects Chinese carmakers' passenger vehicle sales in Western Europe to reach approximately 2.5 million units by 2028, a significant increase from about 1 million units last year. International second-tier brands that have recently lost share in China may face similar competition from Chinese rivals in Europe in the coming years.JPMorgan said overseas markets are expected to account for about 30% to 60% of revenue for certain Chinese automakers in 2026, while volume contribution may represent only about 15% to 30%, reflecting higher average selling prices and profit margins overseas. All else equal, automakers with larger overseas production capacity are expected to benefit the most. BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) +2.000 (+2.022%) Short selling $1.31B; Ratio 37.196% , GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) +0.100 (+0.443%) Short selling $313.72M; Ratio 15.154% and LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK) +0.220 (+0.482%) Short selling $97.42M; Ratio 13.775% , which is expanding overseas through cooperation with Stellantis, are seen as best positioned.The bank's investment conclusions on Chinese auto stocks are clear. First, focus on new energy vehicle makers with high or rapidly rising overseas revenue contribution. Overseas revenue is expected to account for about 50% to 60% for BYD COMPANY, about 40% for GEELY AUTO, more than 10% for LEAPMOTOR and about 20% for XPENG-W (09868.HK) +1.800 (+2.988%) Short selling $293.23M; Ratio 28.630% , while maintaining a hedged stance on state-owned automakers and their joint ventures. Second, focus on automakers delivering stronger QoQ growth in 2Q26 or stronger HoH growth in 2H26.JPMorgan reiterated its preference for BYD COMPANY, GEELY AUTO, LEAPMOTOR, XPENG-W and NIO-SW (09866.HK) +0.660 (+1.434%) Short selling $126.06M; Ratio 40.989% , while maintaining a cautious view on SAIC MOTOR (600104.SH) -0.090 (-0.658%) , GAC GROUP (02238.HK) +0.020 (+0.719%) Short selling $6.35M; Ratio 9.258% , BRILLIANCE CHI (01114.HK) +0.240 (+8.571%) Short selling $17.15M; Ratio 33.798% and LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) +1.600 (+2.358%) Short selling $297.33M; Ratio 42.039% . The bank recently downgraded CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE (000625.SZ) -0.070 (-0.741%) to Underweight. (ss/a)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-06 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)</div>This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation.</div>

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JPMorgan has increased its forecast for Chinese automakers' market share in Western Europe to 20% by 2028, citing structural growth in auto exports. The bank anticipates that overseas markets will contribute 30% to 60% of revenue for certain Chinese automakers by 2026. BYD COMPANY, GEELY AUTO, and LEAPMOTOR are highlighted as well-positioned to benefit from this trend, with expected overseas revenue contributions of 50%, 40%, and over 10%, respectively. JPMorgan maintains a cautious stance on state-owned automakers while favoring new energy vehicle makers with rising overseas revenue.

- JPMorgan has increased its forecast for Chinese OEMs' market share in Western Europe to 20% by 2028, up from 10%-15% previously.  
- The bank anticipates Chinese passenger vehicle sales in Western Europe will reach around 2.5 million units by 2028, driven by new energy vehicle adoption and enhanced production capacities.  
- It favors investments in companies like BYD, GEELY, and LEAPMOTOR, while remaining cautious about others such as SAIC MOTOR and GAC GROUP, reflecting strategic shifts in the market.

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