SG Morning Brief | Records Fade as Iran Ceasefire Cracks and Chips Take a Breather

US OvernightThe S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,337.11, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.13% to 25,806.20, and the Dow shed 313.62 points (-0.63%) to 49,596.97 — all pulling back from Wednesday's record closes after oil prices reversed course and Iran accused the US of breaking the month-long ceasefire. Both the S&P and Nasdaq hit new intraday all-time highs before selling off into the close, and the Dow briefly crossed 50,000 for the first time. WTI crude settled at $94.81 (-0.28%) and Brent at $100.06 (-1.19%), recovering from session lows below $90 after Iran said US strikes hit Qeshm Port. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.356%. A US Trade Court ruled against President Trump's 10% global tariff. Initial jobless claims came in at 200,000, below the 206,000 estimate.Key MoversArm Holdings (ARM) -10% — ARM closed at $213.33, down 10.1%, giving back most of Wednesday's 13.6% gain. The post-earnings selloff deepened as investors digested a warning that phone unit growth "flipped to negative" last quarter due to memory chip shortages. Royalty revenue missed at $671 million versus the $693 million estimate. Despite the AI data center outlook being upgraded, the supply gap for the Arm AGI CPU — $2 billion in demand but only $1 billion in secured supply — remained the overhang.SanDisk (SNDK) -5% — SanDisk pulled back from its all-time high of $1,439.70 on profit-taking after a parabolic run — the stock is up over 500% year-to-date and crossed a $200 billion market cap just two days ago. Analysts noted overbought conditions (RSI above 81) and the fact that several new price targets remain below current trading levels despite the blowout Q3.After hours, Datadog (DDOG) +29% — The cloud observability company surged after raising its full-year forecast following stronger-than-expected Q1 results. Datadog's move signals that enterprise software spending on AI-related monitoring and security is accelerating, validating a second derivative of the AI infrastructure thesis beyond chips and servers.SGX PreviewThe STI closed around 4,927 on Thursday, pulling back from midday highs near 4,944 as afternoon selling emerged following the Iran ceasefire breakdown. DBS is trading near S$58.50 after its strong Q1 results, while OCBC was around S$20.19 and UOB near S$22.70. Today's session faces a mixed setup: US futures are pointing slightly lower, oil is volatile around the Iran news, and the nonfarm payrolls report tonight could shift rate expectations. ARM's 10% drop may weigh on local semiconductor-adjacent names like Venture Corp, though the broader tech narrative remains intact.Asia Pre-MarketS&P 500 futures are roughly flat to slightly lower (-0.10%), Nasdaq futures are down 0.15%, and Dow futures are flat. WTI crude is trading around $92-96, volatile amid renewed Iran deal uncertainty — the strike on Qeshm Port complicates but has not killed the 14-point MOU framework. Gold has surged to $4,703 (+2.95%), reflecting safe-haven demand amid the ceasefire fracture. Bitcoin is at $81,540 (+0.2%). The key signal for Asia is that the risk-on momentum from earlier this week has clearly paused, and tonight's payrolls will determine whether markets resume their push or consolidate.Today's US Earnings and Economic CalendarEventTime (ET)Time (SGT)ConsensusNonfarm Payrolls (April)8:30 AM8:30 PM+165KUnemployment Rate (April)8:30 AM8:30 PMTBDNo major earnings are scheduled for Friday.Data Spotlight: Nonfarm Payrolls — April payrolls consensus sits at +165,000, a modest deceleration from March's revised +175,000. A print above 200,000 would reinforce the "no cuts needed" narrative from the FOMC's 8-4 hawkish split last week. A miss below 120,000 would reopen the door for a summer cut and pressure the dollar while boosting gold and bonds.One More ThingThe Iran ceasefire appeared to crack on Thursday, but it did not break. Iran accused the US of striking Qeshm Port, yet the 14-point MOU framework is still being reviewed by Tehran through Pakistani mediators. Markets treated it as a speed bump, not a reversal — oil barely moved on the day. The bigger tell is that the Dow touched 50,000 before pulling back, anchoring a new psychological trading range. If payrolls come in clean tonight and the Iran talks resume over the weekend, next week could see a real push above 50,000. This week's story is clear: AI earnings validated the spending thesis, oil's retreat eased inflation fears, and the labour market gets the final word tonight.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.