Analysts Predict Wage Growth Trends for 2026

According to Jin10, various financial institutions have provided their forecasts for the average hourly wage growth rates. For the annual rate, Capital Economics predicts a growth of 3.4%, while Citigroup, HSBC, and TD Securities each forecast a 3.7% increase. Dekabank, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Sumitomo Mitsui, Scotiabank, Jefferies Group, and Bank of Montreal all project a 3.8% rise. UBS Group, UOB, and BNP Paribas expect a 3.9% increase, with a Reuters survey also indicating a 3.8% growth. For the monthly rate, Capital Economics, Citigroup, HSBC, and Nomura Securities predict a 0.2% increase. TD Securities and ANZ Bank forecast a 0.3% rise, along with UBS Group, Barclays, Bank of America, Commerzbank, Dekabank, Jefferies Group, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Oxford Economics, Deutsche Bank, Mizuho Securities, Moody's Analytics, Scotiabank, Morgan Stanley, Sumitomo Mitsui, Pantheon Macroeconomics, BNP Paribas, CIBC, UniCredit, Wells Fargo, and Bank of Montreal. A Reuters expectation also aligns with a 0.3% growth.