What's at stake as Trump and an army of CEOs go to China

By Robert Schroeder

Strait of Hormuz, trade and Taiwan loom large as Trump, Xi meet

China's President Xi Jinping (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump are due to meet in Beijing on Thursday and Friday. Iran, trade and Taiwan are on the agenda.

What's at stake for the world's two biggest economies as the leaders of the U.S. and China meet face-to-face?

In a word: lots. And the outcome of the critical summit won't affect just Washington or Wall Street. President Donald Trump is heading to meet President Xi Jinping with a virtual army of CEOs in tow, suggesting deals could be announced, as the war in Iran simmers and the perpetual issue of Taiwan is expected to be discussed.

Those are just a few of the big-ticket items on the schedule for the summit, which starts Thursday. Here's a quick look at the key issues.

Strait talk

Will Trump be able to persuade Xi to lean on Iran so that Tehran accepts the U.S. terms for peace? Or open the critical Strait of Hormuz?

With oil (CL.1) (BRN00) at uncomfortable highs and markets SPX hypersensitive to any movement in the war, the Iran issue may be the most urgent to sort out over the course of Thursday's and Friday's meetings. But early expectations are low for a quick resolution.

"We doubt that China will (or even can) pressure Iran into a peace deal," Tobin Marcus and Chutong Zhu of Wolfe Research wrote in a note.

"Expect bromides about peace, national sovereignty, and international law, plus potential warnings on Chinese support and U.S. sanctions threats."

Xi will have his own demands. Those could include lifting Iran-related sanctions on China, even as Xi holds back on demanding Trump put an end to the war, which is more than two months old.

China "is more resilient to economic shocks from the Iran War than most of its neighbors," said experts at the American Enterprise Institute, "and reaps some geopolitical benefits from the war and blockade continuing, so Xi is unlikely to strongly prioritize pressuring Trump to end the war at this time."

Speaking to reporters before leaving Washington, Trump said of Xi's approach to the war in Iran: "I think he's been relatively good, to be honest with you."

Trade tension

Trade is another linchpin to this week's superpower summit. Trump and Xi have slapped tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of goods from each other's countries, but the two sides are searching for a trade truce.

Or at least, a path ahead. Enter what's being called a U.S.-China board of investment (or trade), designed to smooth deals between the two countries.

"The 'Board of Trade' (i.e., a 'managed trade' effort where sectors that are not problematic from a national security perspective are identified as priorities for bilateral trade) will be the top of agenda," wrote Raymond James analysts.

Those analysts also expect purchase commitments in areas like aerospaceand agriculture will feature in the Trump-Xi talks.

The chief executives of Boeing (BA) and GE Aerospace (GE) are joining Trump on his China trip, along with more than a dozen other big-company CEOs, including the heads of Apple (AAPL), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Tesla (TSLA).

"The presence of both Boeing and GE Aerospace leaders may increase the probability of China announcing an order for Boeing planes, which has been under discussion for years," said 22V Research.

Farewell to Taiwan arms?

A U.S.-China summit wouldn't be complete without a discussion - or perhaps a clash - over Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing views as part of China.

If Trump has a massive ask of Xi on Iran, Xi's biggest may be over Taiwan and the weapons Washington is selling to it.

"Xi will likely urge Trump to decrease or stop arms sales to Taiwan," wrote the American Enterprise Institute experts, who underscored warnings from China to the U.S. over the issue.

As Trump was preparing to leave Washington, a bipartisan group of senators pressed him to move ahead with a $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan.

"You should make clear to Beijing that as you seek to level the economic playing field, American support for Taiwan is not up for negotiation," they wrote in a letter to Trump on May 8.

China-watchers can stand by for Trump's response. But they can also remember what he said to reporters back in February on this very issue.

"I'm talking to [Xi] about it," Trump said. "We had a good conversation, and we'll make a determination pretty soon," he said in response to a question about Xi's opposition to the arms sales. He added that he has "a very good relationship with President Xi."

-Robert Schroeder

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