By Claudia Assis and Andrew Keshner
Three-quarters of Americans say their home-energy costs have climbed in recent years
Energy affordability is a political flashpoint amid surge in demand.
As NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announced plans to merge Monday, the potential rise of a utility giant has investors cheering and consumer advocates concerned - and it's underscoring the two shockwaves coming for America's electric bills these days.
There's surging power demand - mostly due to massive build-out in data centers to fuel AI - that's upended a once sleepy corner of the market. Now, Wall Street is poring over which companies will be the winners in the race to meet that increased demand.
Then there's Main Street's worries about increasingly expensive power bills. Energy affordability and the risk of power outages are a political flashpoint ahead of the midterm elections.
Reflecting that political juggle, NextEra and Dominion are proposing to give $2.25 billion in bill credits to customers to sweeten the deal with federal and state regulators.
&#34;The affordability debate is really important, and it's a bit more front and center in this transaction,&#34; said Alex Kania, an analyst with BTIG. A combined company would be in a good position to accommodate that surge in demand and it could be effective in shielding customers from the spike, he said.
NextEra (NEE) has agreed to pay $67 billion in an all-stock deal for Dominion (D). The companies expect the deal to go through in 12 to 18 months, pending federal and state approvals.
A combined NextEra and Dominion would be a power behemoth serving residential and commercial customers in Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia, including Dominion's hold on Virginia's &#34;Data Center Alley,&#34; where hundreds of data centers operate and dozens more are in development.
But can the company hold down utility bills? The track record isn't promising, according to Karim Marshall, director of climate and energy policy at the Consumer Federation of America.
Merged power companies gain scale and customers, but they don't pass along savings, he said. &#34;There is no historical precedent that the merged entity will share that increased profitability with customers in the form of lower prices or noticeably increased reliability, unless required to,&#34; he said.
There's plenty of consumer skepticism that utility companies are watching out for them. Three-quarters of people said their home-energy costs have climbed in recent years, according to the Pew Research Center this month. Almost two-thirds of people who paid more said the major reason is because utility companies want to make more money.
Rate-increase discussions take about a year in most jurisdictions. After utilities file their rate cases to states' utility commissions, there's a lengthy period for consumer groups and regulatory staff time to evaluate their petitions, which often include open hearings.
It's indisputable that power demand is rising at a pace not seen in decades. Data centers and AI have been getting the blame, but the reality is more complicated. An influential research paper from the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab pointed at infrastructure and much-needed upgrade costs as the possible main culprits behind higher bills, at least for the moment.
A deal would give NextEra a foothold in the Mid-Atlantic region, where the biggest grid operator in the U.S. has called for a major overhaul as it balances surging power demand from data centers against worries about high residential electricity costs and the risk of power outages.
Dominion's stock was the best performer on the S&amp;P 500 Index SPX on Monday, rising more than 9% to close at its highest point since Nov. 3, 2022. Shares of NextEra dropped nearly 5% and ended at their lowest since Feb. 3.
&#34;This is a unique situation where one plus one equals three,&#34; NextEra CEO John Ketchum said on a call with analysts following the merger announcement. If approved, the deal would create a company with &#34;unmatched scale, capabilities and opportunities across the utility and energy infrastructure sectors, enabling us to keep bills affordable over time.&#34;
The proposed $2.25 billion in bill credits would go to Dominion Energy customers in Virginia and the Carolinas, spread out over the first two years once the deal closes. The company would have dual headquarters in Florida and in Virginia.
Brennan Gilmore, executive director of Clean Virginia, a political advocacy organization formed to counter Dominion Energy, urged state officials to scrutinize the deal. Virginia's new governor, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, ran on a campaign last year pledging to tackle everyday costs like rising utility bills.
The &#34;one-time credits are a down payment on political goodwill, not a guarantee of affordability,&#34; Gilmore said.
Both companies are power-generation developers and utilities. NextEra owns hundreds of power plants and transmission lines as well as Florida Power &amp; Light. Dominion is a utility in Virginia and in the Carolinas, and its energy-generation portfolio includes natural gas-powered power plants as well as a nuclear power plant in Connecticut. Both have inked deals to provide power to tech companies such as Meta Platforms (META) and Amazon.com (AMZN).
Related: Trump says AI will pay its fair share for electricity. Don't expect cheaper power bills soon.
Bigger debate over electricity bills
Americans paid an average of $154 for their December electricity bill, according to the Urban Institute. That's an 8.5% jump from the same point one year prior and a 28% jump from five years ago, according to the analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
In dollar terms, consumer spending on electricity rose 48% in the March-ending quarter from the same period in 2018. In that time span, wages and salaries of private-sector workers rose about 35%.
Americans have spent a tad less on electricity as a percentage of all their spending in recent years. That's not because electricity bills haven't increased - especially in higher-cost states such as California, Hawaii and New York - but because the cost of other essentials have risen faster.
&#34;My concern is that when utilities become this large, they effectively become the elephant in the room wielding enormous economic and political influence during a period of rapidly rising electric prices,&#34; said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.
Consumers need someone to watch out for them, he said. Americans are now behind on their utility bills by around $25 billion and their costs will increase in the coming months. Households will pay an estimated $778 on average to cool their homes this summer, according to the NEADA. That's an 8.5% increase from last year's projections.
Jeffry Bartash contributed.
-Claudia Assis -Andrew Keshner
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-18-26 1919ET

NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announced a $67 billion merger, aiming to address rising energy costs amid increasing demand, particularly from data centers. The deal includes $2.25 billion in bill credits for customers, but concerns remain about whether savings will be passed on to consumers. The merger could create a significant utility provider in the Mid-Atlantic region, but skepticism exists regarding affordability and reliability of service. The deal is pending regulatory approval and is expected to close in 12 to 18 months.

Dow Jones

Dominion Energy

Nextera Energy

Nextera Energy Partners LP

ISHRS S&P Glb Utilities

Select Sect Spdr Util

S&P 500

NEXTERA ENERGY CAPITAL HLDGS INC 5.65%JNR SUBORD DEB 01/03/2079 SER N

NEXTERA ENERGY CAPITAL HLDGS INC 6.5% BDS 15/04/86 USD1000

NEXTERA ENERGY INC 6.926% CORPORATE UNITS 01/09/2025

NEXTERA ENERGY INC CORP UNIT 01/11/2029

NEXTERA ENERGY CAPITAL HLDGS INC 6.5% BDS 01/06/85 USD25

NEXTERA ENERGY INC CORP UNIT 01/06/2027

NEXTERA ENERGY INC CORP UNIT

What NextEra and Dominion's giant utility merger means for your electric bill