ASEAN nations return to fossil fuels, back away from net zero plans

For years, the governments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations faced pressure from international lenders and climate forums to announce fossil fuel phase-outs, moratoria on new plants, and heavy bets on wind and solar. Indonesia and Vietnam secured decarbonization-inspired funding from the Just Energy Transition Partnership. Leaders spoke of achieving net-zero goals by 2050 and exiting coal by 2040 or earlier. Natural gas was regarded as the transition fuel, a supposedly necessary evil to get to a future renewable energy utopia, in which wind and solar would be “scaled up.” Then the confident rhetoric met reality. A sudden oil and natural gas crunch, triggered by the expanding conflict in the Middle East, has laid bare fatal flaws in the net zero program. Gas markets tightened almost overnight. Shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz got risky. Liquefied natural gas prices surged. Supply chains stumbled. Now, ASEAN governments are quietly tearing up their climate pledges and returning to oil, coal, and natural gas — the only affordable energy sources that guarantee uninterrupted power for their growing economies. In short, fossil fuels are back in style. Since mid-April, reports have described a clear pattern across Asia: liquefied natural gas disruption, higher spot prices, and a scramble for dispatchable power that coal can still provide more cheaply and immediately than many alternatives. ASEAN does not run on slogans, and factories, ports, malls, and homes do not operate on wishful thinking. When gas prices jump and supplies tighten, utilities reach for coal because it is available and familiar. This month, Indonesia Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia made it plain: “I decided, let coal continue for now. This is about survival mode and efficiency. We must not sacrifice our people with high electricity prices.” Indonesia has approved higher quotas for coal production and delayed earlier phase-out schedules for coal plants like Cirebon-1. Plans to eliminate coal use sit on the shelf. Affordable power for 280 million people comes first. In Vietnam, coal-fired generation jumped 44 percent month-over-month in March, reaching 16 terawatt-hours. That accounted for 56 percent of the country’s total power output — the highest share in recent memory. Utilities negotiated extra coal imports to fill gaps left by expensive and scarce liquefied natural gas. Thailand took direct action. Authorities restarted two decommissioned units at the Mae Moh coal-fired power plant and ordered existing coal stations to maximum capacity. The added 600 megawatts helped stabilize electricity costs after gas prices soared. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in late March after gasoline prices more than doubled. Coal already supplies about 60 percent of electricity. The government ramped up output from coal plants and considered easing restrictions on new capacity. Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla signaled that temporary reliance on coal would prevent shortages. In Myanmar, there have been long queues at petrol stations. Black-market prices more than twice official rates have slowed rice harvesting and hiked food prices. Although the immediate crisis hits diesel and gasoline, power utilities lean harder on domestic coal reserves to avoid broader blackouts. Malaysia and others eye similar steps to protect industrial output and rural economies. The speed with which ASEAN nations abandoned their net-zero pledges should tell you everything you need to know about the viability of the climate agenda. The moment a real threat emerged, the green energy transition was exposed as a luxury belief held by those who have never had to worry about where their next kilowatt is coming from. Developing economies are rejecting the climate dogma that demands their perpetual impoverishment. They are actively expanding coal mining operations to ensure a steady supply of domestic fuel. This protects their economies from the wild price-swings of imported liquefied natural gas. The irony is obvious. Governments that spent years promising rapid decarbonization are now leaning on coal to keep lights on and electricity prices tolerable. The middle class applauds because the alternative is higher bills, fuel rationing, and lost jobs. For ordinary households, energy security is not a subject for a debate club. It is the difference between affordable electricity and unnecessary, even dangerous, interruptions to modern living. Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition and a former research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia.