The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has lasted nearly three months, and the international crude oil market continues to experience a structural shock dominated by geopolitical games and supply-demand imbalances. Currently, Brent crude oil prices are consolidating at a high level around $111 per barrel. On the surface, news of NATO preparing to take control of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a slight pullback in oil prices, but the fundamental supply-demand situation in the global oil market remains tight, and it is expected to maintain a state of severe volatility for some time to come.
(1) Supply side continues to deteriorate, recovery of production capacity is still a long way off
Currently, global crude oil supply is at its &#34;darkest hour.&#34; Affected by conflicts in the Gulf region, OPEC's monthly production has fallen to its lowest point in over 20 years, with daily supply disruptions from Gulf oil-producing countries peaking at over ten million barrels. More troublesome is the physical bottleneck: due to the blockade of the strait, the available tanker capacity in the Gulf region has been halved, reducing about 130 million barrels. This means that even if all parties suddenly shake hands and the strait reopens tomorrow, the extremely scarce capacity will make the recovery of crude oil exports exceptionally slow. Although OPEC+ plans to slightly increase production, this increment is almost &#34;a drop in the bucket&#34; in the face of the actual blockade.
(2) Rapid consumption of inventory, underlying logic remains strong
Corresponding to the supply shortage, global oil inventories are being consumed at a record pace. Over the past two months, global inventories have decreased by approximately 250 million barrels, with a daily consumption close to 4 million barrels. This visible inventory crisis has become the most solid foundation for high oil prices. Although rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have increased corporate financing costs, putting some pressure on the macro market, compared to the visible shortage of spot supply, the negative impact at the financial level has yet to shake the fundamental support for oil prices.
Overall, for investors, the current crude oil market is undoubtedly a tough &#34;hard nut to crack.&#34; On one hand, high oil prices are favorable for upstream oil and gas companies; on the other hand, the instability of the international situation makes it difficult to provide a basis for long-term valuation.
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On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

On May 10, Trump tweeted angrily declaring Iran's latest response "completely unacceptable." Iran, through Pakistan, proposed an immediate ceasefire and the lifting of the naval blockade, while the US insists that Iran suspend uranium enrichment and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides remain fundamentally opposed. Do you think there's any possibility of breaking this deadlock?

US-Iran deadlock returns — is a ceasefire still possible?

CRAK

The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to impact the international crude oil market, with Brent crude prices hovering around $111 per barrel. OPEC production has fallen to a 20-year low, with severe supply disruptions in the Gulf region and rapid depletion of inventories, leading to a global oil inventory reduction of approximately 250 million barrels. Despite the pressure from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the tight spot market supports high oil prices, leaving investors in a complex situation. The oil ETF Huaxia (159189) covers the entire supply chain with low management fees

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The geopolitical deadlock is difficult to resolve, and the oil market is caught in a tug-of-war