On May 20 local time, SpaceX officially submitted its IPO application, planning to officially land on NASDAQ on June 12. The long-awaited prospectus has finally been disclosed, with a fundraising scale exceeding $75 billion and a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history.
Why can SpaceX become the largest IPO in human history? What kind of transformation will this leading company's listing bring to the entire industry? As domestic investors, how can we catch up with this capital feast and share in the dividends of industrial development?
To understand SpaceX's valuation logic, it is helpful to review its growth path. In fact, this itself is a history of &#34;engineering capability + business closed loop&#34; evolution. The early company experienced a dark moment of consecutive launch failures and near-exhaustion of funds, until the successful orbit of &#34;Falcon 1&#34; and securing a major contract with NASA, which marked a key leap from technical validation to business closure. In the following decade, SpaceX significantly compressed launch costs through reusable technology, with the Falcon 9 first-stage booster setting a record of 32 reuses, achieving a cost reduction of up to 68%, establishing a moat of extreme cost-effectiveness. In recent years, with the large-scale operation of &#34;Starlink,&#34; SpaceX has further transformed from a &#34;space hauler&#34; to a &#34;platform subscriber,&#34; establishing a significant first-mover advantage in the global satellite internet race.
Looking deeper, supporting the $1.7 trillion valuation are the clear growth logic of SpaceX's three major business segments.
The satellite business is the profit engine, contributing $11.4 billion in revenue last year, accounting for over 60% of total revenue. Starlink has approximately 10.3 million subscribers in 164 countries and regions, operating about 9,600 low-orbit satellites, combined with the deeply integrated defense-demand Starshield business, forming a stable and high-growth cash flow;
The rocket launch business serves as the technical facade. Although it is still in a loss phase, it continues to secure large orders from NASA and other clients. With technological breakthroughs, the Falcon 9 has a gross margin of 79%, and the next-generation Starship is expected to exceed a 90% gross margin upon mature operation, with cost advantages continuing to expand, and profitability expected in the future;
The space computing business opens up long-term imaginative space. Faced with the physical bottlenecks of ground data centers in terms of power, heat dissipation, and land, space data centers can cost only one-twentieth of ground centers under ideal conditions, providing ample elastic support for valuation. However, this is also the most controversial part, as in 2025, the company's overall capital expenditure is expected to be about $20.7 billion, with AI-related investments accounting for about $12.7 billion, exceeding 61%, surpassing the total capital expenditure of traditional rocket and satellite businesses, and whether commercialization can be achieved in the future remains uncertain.
The listing of SpaceX undoubtedly represents a significant transformation for the global commercial space industry. First, it provides a pricing logic for the industry and establishes a valuation anchor. For a long time, commercial space companies have lacked public market benchmarks, resulting in a relatively vague valuation system. After SpaceX, as an industry leader, enters the capital market, investors can conduct relative valuations of other companies by comparing key indicators such as its price-to-sales ratio, gross margin, and user growth
The market's recognition of its high growth, high gross margin, and high barrier business model is expected to drive the reshaping of the entire industry's valuation system.
The listing has opened up the exit channel for primary capital, activating the investment ecosystem. Early investors such as Founders Fund, Fidelity, and Google will reap substantial returns, and this successful case will greatly boost the confidence of the primary market in commercial aerospace. More importantly, it will create a virtuous cycle of &#34;investment - exit - reinvestment,&#34; encouraging more long-term capital to enter this long-cycle, high-investment track, providing ample ammunition for continuous technological innovation.
Furthermore, the listing has triggered a global capital resonance, accelerating the commercialization process of the industrial chain. Under the catalysis of SpaceX, the capitalization process of companies like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile in the North American market has significantly accelerated. China's commercial aerospace sector is also entering an important window period, with over 10 companies, including Landspace, Galaxy Space, Tianbing Technology, and CAS Space, racing to go public, covering the entire chain from rocket launches to satellite manufacturing and operational services. The improvement of the capital ecosystem will promote the industry's accelerated leap from &#34;engineering demonstration&#34; to &#34;scaled operation.&#34;
Turning back to the domestic scene, China's commercial aerospace is entering a period of accelerated development, with increasingly strong triple driving forces of policy, capital, and industry. On the policy front, the &#34;14th Five-Year Plan&#34; positions aerospace as an emerging pillar industry, and the release of the 1.0 version of the commercial aerospace standard system lays the institutional foundation, providing guidelines for industry access and quality control, with policy orientation shifting from &#34;encouraging exploration&#34; to &#34;supporting scaled applications.&#34; On the capital front, the listing process of leading domestic enterprises is accelerating, with the activity level of the primary market financing and the attention of the secondary market rising in tandem, and the industry's valuation logic is shifting from &#34;thematic expectations&#34; to &#34;performance growth.&#34; On the industrial front, the first generation of satellite networks is concluding, the verification of reusable rockets is intensively advancing, and application scenarios such as direct mobile connections, vehicle communication, and Internet of Things access are continuously expanding, gradually forming a three-pronged driving pattern of &#34;domestic demand foundation, foreign trade expansion, and civilian feedback.&#34;
For domestic investors, if they want to participate in the high-growth track of commercial aerospace, it is recommended to grasp investment opportunities from a full industrial chain perspective. At the current stage, the rocket launch and satellite manufacturing sectors have the fastest technological iteration and the highest order visibility, making them the most direct beneficiaries of the industry's prosperity. However, individual stocks in commercial aerospace are highly volatile, and there are uncertainties in technological routes and launch missions, so ordinary investors can diversify risks through index products.
The Satellite ETF (159218) closely tracks the CSI Satellite Industry Index, selecting no more than 50 listed company securities involved in satellite manufacturing and launching, satellite ground equipment manufacturing, satellite navigation, satellite communication, and other technology research and application segments, to reflect the overall performance of listed company securities in the satellite industry. The combined weight of the satellite manufacturing and launch basic sectors is not less than 50%, aligning with the current stage of industrial development

RKLB

LUNR

SIDU

SpaceX

ARKX

SpaceX submitted its IPO application on May 20, planning to go public on June 12, raising over $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history. The company reduces launch costs through reusable technology, with its satellite business contributing $11.4 billion in revenue, a gross margin of 79% in its rocket launch business, and a promising outlook for its space computing business, supporting its high valuation

同壁财经

Planet Labs

Rocket Lab

Intuitive Machines

Sidus Space

ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF

Procure Space ETF

Alphabet

Alphabet - C

AST SpaceMobile

China Merchants CSI Satellite Industry ETF

SpaceX's prospectus first exposed: Starlink generates annual revenue of 10 billion, three major businesses support a valuation of 1.75 trillion