Oil Prices Expected to Remain Near $100 Per Barrel Amid Geopolitical Tensions

According to Jin10, a recent survey indicates that due to demand being forced to slow down to offset the loss of millions of barrels caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict, the market generally expects oil prices to remain near $100 per barrel over the next year. Most respondents anticipate the average price of Brent crude to be between $81 and $100 per barrel in the next 12 months. Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed believe that oil prices will maintain a persistent risk premium of $5 to $15 per barrel in the coming years, with few expecting it to exceed $20. Analysts suggest that this indicates geopolitical risks are seen as a persistent factor, but not a fundamental reset of long-term pricing mechanisms, with the market expecting supply and demand to gradually rebalance. The survey identifies 'demand destruction' as the primary mechanism to hedge against supply shortfalls, followed by trade flow adjustments, OPEC+ policies, and strategic reserve releases. Most respondents expect global supply disruptions to range from 3 to 7 million barrels per day, with few predicting it to exceed 10 million barrels.