Weekly Recap | TLH.US +0.09%, outpacing the S&P 500

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TLH.US edged up 0.09% to close at $96.69, outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 1.52 percentage points as the benchmark slid 1.43%. The iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF staged a choppy recovery. After dipping to the week’s low of $95.835 on Tuesday (18 Aug), the fund surged on Wednesday (19 Aug) to a high of $97.63 on volume of roughly 2.0m shares — nearly 1.6x the weekly average — before easing back to $96.69 by Friday (21 Aug).

The Week

TLH.US edged up 0.09% to close at $96.69, outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 1.52 percentage points as the benchmark slid 1.43%. The iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF staged a choppy recovery. After dipping to the week’s low of $95.835 on Tuesday (18 Aug), the fund surged on Wednesday (19 Aug) to a high of $97.63 on volume of roughly 2.0m shares — nearly 1.6x the weekly average — before easing back to $96.69 by Friday (21 Aug). The move came without any fund-specific catalysts, largely tracking shifting rate expectations. The latest session saw large-lot traders acting as net buyers.

The Week Ahead

A packed US macro calendar next week offers several potential catalysts for rate-sensitive assets. On Tuesday (25 Aug), the consumer confidence index (prior 90.8, forecast 90.1) and new home sales (prior 628k, forecast 620k) headline alongside the FHFA House Price Index, Case-Shiller 20-city home price data, and the Richmond Fed composite index. The barrage of housing and sentiment readings could sharpen the market’s view on inflation and growth, directly shaping the near-term path for intermediate Treasury yields.

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