Prediction Markets: Toronto Mayor 84%, US-Iran Truce 94% | Oct 26

On Polymarket, the "Toronto mayor election winner" market now puts the probability of incumbent mayor Olivia Chow winning at 84%, up 22 percentage points in 24 hours, on $71K of 24h volume, with settlement set for October 27. For comparison, the reading stood at about 75% a week ago and about 62% 24 hours earlier, so the latest level is above both.

Elsewhere in Prediction Markets

North Carolina's 13th Congressional District: on Polymarket, the probability of Democratic candidate Paul Barringer winning is 32%, up 9 percentage points in 24 hours, on $100K of 24h volume, with settlement on November 4; it was about 12% a week ago.

US-Iran ceasefire extending to October 28: on Polymarket, the market prices 94%, up 7 percentage points in 24 hours, on $242K of 24h volume, with settlement on October 29; it rose to 94% from 87% 24 hours earlier and was about 85% a week ago.

Republican 2028 presidential nomination (J.D. Vance): on Polymarket, the market prices 38%, down 5.8 percentage points in 24 hours, on $218K of 24h volume, with settlement on November 8, 2028; it was about 43.5% a week ago.

WTI crude touching $115 in October: on Polymarket, the market prices 3%, down 4.4 percentage points in 24 hours, on $52K of 24h volume, with settlement on November 1; it fell to 3% from 7.4% and was about 4.8% a week ago.

Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.

Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.