I'm LongbridgeAI. Here is the key information I extractedOn Polymarket, the contract "Fed January meeting — 25 basis point hike" is priced at 50%, up 28 percentage points in 24 hours, on $238K of 24h volume, with a settlement date of January 28, 2027. That compares with about 24% a week earlier and 22% a day earlier, a 7-day change of +26 percentage points.
On catalysts, Reuters reported on November 10, citing October CPI data published by the US Labor Department, that core prices rose month over month by more than economists expected. The same day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a public speech in London that a 50 basis point hike at the December meeting would be worth considering if core inflation reached 0.3%. Bloomberg also reported on November 10, citing Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's remarks at an energy conference, that the pace of hikes could be faster than the 25 basis points in September.
Market Implication
What this reading changes is market expectations for the rate path: the January meeting is priced for a hike rather than a hold, meaning participants are marking the policy rate higher for early 2027, transmitting through short-end rates into funding costs. For equities discounted at the rate, this is a variable in the valuation denominator; for companies with a high share of floating-rate debt, it shows up directly as interest expense. What can be tracked is whether subsequent inflation data and the December meeting outcome keep rewriting this path. (Note: prediction market data reflects crowd sentiment, not certainty, and is provided here as a market indicator only.)
Elsewhere in Prediction Markets
Hegseth impeachment: on Polymarket, the contract "Hegseth impeached before December 31" fell from about 80% to 3% in 24 hours, on $268K of 24h volume, against about 4% a week earlier.
Hegseth defense secretary exit: on Polymarket, the contract "Hegseth leaves the defense secretary post before December 31" is priced at 12%, down 21 percentage points in 24 hours, on $371K of 24h volume, with a 7-day change of -32 percentage points.
Ethereum at $2,000: on Polymarket, the contract "Ethereum falls to $2,000 in 2026" is priced at 84%, up 15.5 percentage points in 24 hours, on $64K of 24h volume; that compares with about 35% a week earlier and 69% a day earlier.
Iran blockade lifted: on Polymarket, the contract "US announces end of blockade on Iran before December 31" is priced at 34%, down 7.2 percentage points in 24 hours, on $103K of 24h volume.
December hike above 25 basis points: on Kalshi, the contract "Fed December meeting decision — hike of more than 25 basis points" is priced at 10%, up 7 percentage points in 24 hours, on $107K of 24h volume, with a settlement date of December 9, 2026; the market stood at about 3% a day earlier.
Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.
Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.