佳昊札记

编者按@晓风 morning_wind 是长桥资产及收益率均长期排在 TOP1% 的头部作者，但在长桥社区里，他的简介只有一句很低调的话：「据说现在是牛市，牛市最重要的就是保住战果」这句话不是鸡汤。往前倒十年，2015 年那轮著名的大牛市，他从头做到尾，年底一算账——不但没赚，其实还亏了。从那以后，「保住战果」四个字，才一笔一笔写进了他的仓位纪律里。 晓风长期在科技行业工作...

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)

Do you still remember my initial judgment on SPCX when it went public? At its IPO, the stock was severely overvalued, with prominent risks in its own technology implementation. Coupled with the current market's consensus expectation of a prolonged Middle East geopolitical conflict, rising inflationary pressures further reinforce the logic of interest rate hike trades. Undoubtedly, SPCX will bear the brunt of the pressure first.

However, this sector possesses scarce barriers, and the long-term growth logic still holds. It is suitable for me to make a small, light-position trial-and-error layout.

The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice!

https://longbridge.com/topics/42629585?channel=SH000001&invite-code=7CFYR9&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-HK&share_track_id=2d795be7-81cc-47da-8d4c-8c1176f19075&dialect_language=zh-YUE

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)AI 泡沫论再度刷屏全网，市场多空博弈进入极致白热化阶段。近期美股 AI 赛道剧烈回调，恐慌情绪快速扩散，哪怕是收益稳定、收益率稳前 1% 的资深桥友，也纷纷出现分歧、开始谨慎避险（见附图）。针对当下市场集体恐慌的状态，我系统梳理盘面逻辑、拆解本轮大跌本质，并结合当下行情格局，分享个人最新持仓思路与后市应对策略...

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)AI 泡沫论再度刷屏全网，市场多空博弈进入极致白热化阶段。近期美股 AI 赛道剧烈回调，恐慌情绪快速扩散，哪怕是收益稳定、收益率稳前 1% 的资深桥友，也纷纷出现分歧、开始谨慎避险（见附图）。针对当下市场集体恐慌的状态，我系统梳理盘面逻辑、拆解本轮大跌本质，并结合当下行情格局，分享个人最新持仓思路与后市应对策略...

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)AI 泡沫论再度刷屏全网，市场多空博弈进入极致白热化阶段。近期美股 AI 赛道剧烈回调，恐慌情绪快速扩散，哪怕是收益稳定、收益率稳前 1% 的资深桥友，也纷纷出现分歧、开始谨慎避险（见附图）。针对当下市场集体恐慌的状态，我系统梳理盘面逻辑、拆解本轮大跌本质，并结合当下行情格局，分享个人最新持仓思路与后市应对策略...

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Part Two: Position Control

Yesterday, I talked about risk control in crude language. Today, I'll extend that to discuss position management.

In fact, the core of risk control is position management. As we all know, "don't put all your eggs in one basket," which is particularly important in financial markets. Imagine if you were fully invested in a single stock, and it plummeted due to major negative news, your account would suffer a synchronous sharp decline with no other holdings to buffer or hedge against it.

Managing your position size is crucial. You need to diversify across different sectors while also having a focus on certain sectors to allow your assets to grow steadily through market fluctuations. My personal position allocation is: ① Focus on core AI chip/semiconductor holdings ~50%, ② Allocate to AI infrastructure/energy holdings ~20%, ③ Allocate to stable large-cap tech stocks (Google, etc.) ~20%, ④ Materials and others ~10%.

To be able to attack and defend, maintaining sufficient cash reserves is very important. Personally, I suggest your invested position should not exceed 60%, and for the A-share market, it should not exceed 50%.

Market changes often hit our holdings hard, but isn't that also an opportunity for us? In recent years, the US stock market has given us several opportunities to do day trading to lower costs. If you have no cash, can you buy the dip to average down and day trade when everyone is in despair? The answer is no.

Of course, don't rush to add to your positions during a sharp decline. You need to have certain principles and operating rules, such as: ① Execute in batches: Don't add your entire cash position at once; add 10-20% of your cash at key support levels each time. ② Target weight: The weight of a single stock should not exceed 25%. ③ Trigger conditions: Technical pullbacks of 5%-15%, oversold conditions after earnings reports, negative macro data, etc. For major indices, especially the Nasdaq, when it falls by 5%-10% or more over a period. ④ Cash position control: It is recommended to use the cash position (60%-70%) as the core day trading pool + (30%-40%) as a safety buffer to deal with more sudden intermediate declines. ⑤ Stop-loss and take-profit: Lock in profits and sell when there's a 5-10% rebound or when short-term targets are met; limit single-trade losses to no more than 3-5% and cut losses quickly.

Remember, there are countless paths in finance, but risk control is the first rule. Don't be greedy and chase highs, fearing you'll miss out. Opportunities are always there. Whether it's A-shares or US stocks, there will be geopolitical events or technical pullbacks from time to time. Especially during Donald Trump's administration, I believe there will be even more opportunities, as his business mindset determines that he will inevitably create opportunities for day trading.

The market carries risks; invest with caution. The above is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Profits and losses are your own responsibility.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)

SPCX's Scarcity vs. Execution Technology Risk

1. SPCX's Scarcity.

SPCX is currently the only company in the world capable of mature, large-scale recovery of first-stage rockets. This capability directly reduces launch costs to a fraction of other companies', creating an extremely deep moat. Starlink's low-orbit satellite network also has no comparable rival at the moment.

The market's ability to assign a high valuation to SPCX is largely based on its next-generation fully reusable system, Starship. Starship is SPCX's biggest cost advantage, as both the booster and the spacecraft can be fully recovered and rapidly reused, allowing for repeated operations like an airplane. Starship also possesses the following characteristics: massive payload capacity, orbital refueling capability, and adaptability to multiple missions.

SpaceX has both the main operational rocket Falcon 9 as a primary revenue generator and Starship as a revolutionary next-generation leading technology. This is where the market gives it a premium, representing SPCX's greatest advantage and its core scarcity value.

2. SPCX's Execution Technology Risk

SpaceX's execution technology risk also lies with Starship, due to its far greater complexity compared to Falcon 9.

Although Starship, which has not yet entered mature commercial operation, has enormous potential, its current execution technology risk is too high. Why is that? In fact, Starship is still in an intensive testing phase. Despite multiple test flights, issues like engine failures and landing failures are frequent during testing. It has already experienced four major technical incidents in the first half of this year, indicating that the execution risk is indeed significant.

In reality, the premium the market gives SPCX is largely built on the expectation of technological leadership in reusable systems. However, if Starship's progress is severely delayed, or if there are several more major failures or incidents, investor confidence in its moat will be shaken.

Considering points 1 and 2 above, it's not hard to see that Starship is SPCX's double-edged sword. It can bring scarcity premiums but also severe execution technology risks, leading to significant valuation downgrades.

The end of July and early August will see SPCX's first earnings report and a new round of lock-up expirations since its IPO. Coupled with Starship's consecutive failures this year, the technology execution risk is further amplified. Although the moat still exists, market confidence has already been affected.

In the short to medium term, its scarcity has been clearly suppressed by technology execution risk. Personally, I believe the $2 trillion market cap has clearly overdrawn future expectations, and the stock price is likely to face pressure in the short to medium term. Of course, this doesn't mean I'm bearish on SPCX; I am also very bullish on its long-term value. One day, Starship will truly mature, and its scarcity will be unparalleled.

The above represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice!