markypots

The most interesting PM observation across the three: how each one is monetising AI. Tencent has gone aggressive on Cloud AI compute pricing (+5% recently). BABA is rolling out HappyHorse commercial in May (its agentic product). JD is using AI primarily in logistics optimization. Three different productisation strategies, three different revenue paths. The earnings calls will be more informative on AI revenue contribution than the headline number. Listen to language carefully

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) Meituan Set to Report Q4 & Full-Year 2025 Earnings — All Eyes on Core Local Commerce Pressure

Revenue Outlook

Q4 revenue is expected at RMB 92.1 billion, up ~5% YoY, with full-year revenue around RMB 380 billion — growth slowing amid fierce competition.

Core food delivery orders are projected to grow 7–10%, while Flash Purchase (instant retail) is expected to deliver over 20% growth, helping offset weakness in the in-store, hotel, and travel segments.

New businesses — including Keeta's overseas expansion and community group buying — are forecast to contribute RMB 25–28 billion, though subsidies continue to weigh on gross margin.

Profit Outlook

A full-year net loss of RMB 23.3–24.3 billion is expected, swinging from profit to loss. The core local commerce segment is estimated to post an operating loss of RMB 6.8–7.0 billion, driven by a sharp rise in ecosystem investments amid intensifying competition.

Adjusted net profit for Q4 is expected to show a loss of RMB 1.0–1.5 billion, following the RMB 16 billion loss recorded in Q3.

If subsidy pressure persists, gross margin could dip below 15%, potentially delaying the profitability recovery timeline.

Core Business Breakdown

Food delivery remains resilient, holding over 60% market share with strong user stickiness — though price competition is squeezing margins to historic lows.

Flash Purchase & on-demand retail are scaling fast, hitting 20 million daily orders and surpassing 500 million transacting users, positioning it as a key growth driver.

New businesses have narrowed losses to under RMB 1 billion. Keeta's overseas expansion and supermarket global expansion show long-term promise, though they remain a near-term drag.

Bull vs. Bear

Bear case: Intense competition (e.g., aggressive subsidies from Douyin) is eroding core profitability — a trend that looks hard to reverse. The stock is already down 22%, wiping out billions in market cap. Caution advised near term.

Bull case: Meituan's moat remains intact — 800 million users, strong logistics network, and algorithm advantage. Flash Purchase penetration plus overseas expansion could unlock long-term value. A re-rating may follow once the competitive landscape stabilizes.

My Play

As a Hong Kong trader, I'm staying neutral for now. I'll look to build long positions in batches after Q4 results confirm a bottom in losses, with a stop at HKD 75.

For those trading options (US/HK listed), selling out-of-the-money puts (strike HKD 70) could be a way to collect premium — targeting 5–8% returns, with position size capped at 10% of the portfolio for risk control.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) Just saw Xiaomi dropped a new AI model (MiMo-V2) last night.

Honestly? Pretty impressive timing right before the SU7 event tonight. It's apparently ranking #2 in China on some leaderboard, and the wild part is—someone anonymously uploaded it to OpenRouter days ago and everyone thought it was DeepSeek's new model😂

What I like: they're pricing it aggressively (cheap tokens), promising to open source it, and it's already integrated into WPS. That's actual distribution, not just tech demos.

Kinda feels like Xiaomi is quietly building real AI capability while everyone's focused on the car hype. Anyone tried it yet?

$Oracle(ORCL.US) technicals: broke above $150 resistance today, now $152.30. 52-week range $118.86-$345.72, currently 56% below highs. RSI recovering from oversold, MACD bullish crossover forming. Oppenheimer upgrade catalyst. $185 PT implies 21% upside. Bottom fishing season? 🎣

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) 52-week range $481 to $697, currently $681 . Near highs but still below ATH. Question for the group: Trim here and take profits or hold through 2026? FOMC minutes today could decide direction . Mixed signals everywhere.

$SPDR S&P 500.US at $693.95, sitting on 20MA $685, 50MA $668. Feb low $692, Jan high $700. Chopfest 2026 continues. Volume 44M vs avg 41M. Waiting for catalyst. 📊

Wolfe Research just slashed $Circle(CRCL.US) target to $40, Underperform. Morgan Stanley says $66 Equalweight, Mizuho $77 Neutral, Compass Point $60 Neutral.

Yet consensus still $132. 22 analysts, 4 different worlds. Stock at $56.63. Someone is very wrong. I know which side has been upgrading recently. 🤔

$ASML(ASML.US) $1,406.87, -2% yesterday, volume 1.45M vs 2.16M avg. 50MA $1,233, 200MA $1,022. 52weeks high $1,493 from Jan 28 . Pullback from ATH is only -5.8%. RSI ~55, not oversold. IV crush post-earnings. This is consolidation, not distribution. I’m adding at $1,380

$iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) just added 19.73 tonnes yesterday, now at 16,236.18 tonnes . AUM US$51.48B . 2026 deficit forecast 300 million ounces, 6th year of shortage . Retail sentiment ‘Very Positive’, +23.9% holders in 30 days . Price still 30% off the highs. This is accumulation, not distribution.

$DBS(D05.SG) recently showing strong fundamentals again, record profit and steady dividend story still intact. Feels like typical SG blue-chip slow grind up, not exciting but very “shiok” for income investors :)

I feel like $Apple(AAPL.US) is in an awkward phase...? Fundamentals stable but lacking excitement. Market waiting for real AI features in devices, while near-term growth looks flat. Hard to be bearish, but also hard to get excited.

Even though Musk is bearish on $ASML(ASML.US), who knows if it'll fall in the future

$Oracle(ORCL.US) Lets fly to the moon tonight🚀🚀🚀

DJT reminds me that some stocks live entirely in the news cycle. Miss one update and the price already moved without you.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) Why does it keep falling...?

AAPL is holding support well — if services and iPhone upgrades stay healthy, this could grind higher.

$Oracle(ORCL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Will tonight's trading session repeat yesterday's story?

$ASML(ASML.US) Long-term, how does the growth of chiplet designs affect EUV demand? Possibly positive?

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) Never selling my core UNH position. It's the anchor that lets me weather storms in the rest of my portfolio

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) Optum is the growth engine within this giant. It's what makes it more than just an insurance company.

$Apple(AAPL.US) JPMorgan's “Overweight” rating makes sense. This is a smart way to buy time and bridge the gap until their own AI stack is ready in 2026/27

$ASML(ASML.US) Morgan Stanley's bull case sees 70% upside to €2000! The ultimate AI infrastructure bet

$Coreweave(CRWV.US) awesome, one-man show, soon catching up with nebius's unit stock price