NewUser_zS0M8w

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Context: SMCI reported fiscal 2027 first-quarter net sales of $19.95 billion, up 298% from a year earlier and well above the market consensus of about $16.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.81, topping the $1.25 estimate. Super Micro raised its full-year revenue guidance to $72.0 billion to $82.0 billion, up from a prior range of $65.0 billion to $72.0 billion. Second-quarter revenue is guided at $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion, also exceeding the $16.53 billion consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin was 12.8%, down sequentially due to customer pickup timing, CFO Mark Long said, noting that margins still improved when combining the first and fourth quarters. Separately, the company announced a strategic AI partnership with SambaNova to build inference systems using SN50 chips and NVIDIA GPUs.

My Trade: Remain as it is, waiting for lower price to accumulate or higher price to take profit.

Takeaway: The stock was up 8% after hours but now trading sideways due to broader weaker momentum in the chips sector. @Captain's Treasure

Chips company are mixed right now, with AMD, SMCI up in share price after beating earnings while others like Nvidia and TSM are down slightly. Most of the other names are also rebounding after Midterms results are officially out. Let's see if this upwards momentum can last

I thought it would be a decent recovery on Monday but I guessed wrong. Stocks went tumbling down even further after I went to sleep. Will the pattern repeat again today?

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: Microsoft is better positioned to profit from the artificial intelligence (AI) spending race, thanks to its strong cash flow and growing ability to monetize AI across its businesses. While some of the largest hyperscalers are seeing their cash flows eaten up by the AI race, Microsoft seems better prepared to foot the bill — and, more importantly, profit from it. In the September quarter, Azure revenue grew 48%, while the company generated $18.6 billion in free cash flow despite massive infrastructure spending.As hyperscalers spend huge sums on AI infrastructure, Microsoft arguably has the strongest financial position to sustain these investments without hurting its broader business. In FY2026, Microsoft’s cash capital expenditures (capex) reached $116 billion, up from $44.5 billion just two years earlier. The company expects total capex, including finance leases, to reach around $170 billion in calendar 2026. Let’s look at the September quarter. Azure revenue grew 48% year-over-year, compared with 39% for Amazon’s AWS. Alphabet’s Google Cloud grew even faster, at 103%. More importantly, Microsoft generated $18.6 billion in quarterly free cash flow. Alphabet and Meta, meanwhile, reported negative FCF of $9.1 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. Amazon recorded negative $42.4 billion in FCF over the past 12 months.

My Trade: Microsoft demonstrates why it remains fundamentally solid and their business decisions have led to a more steady share price. I'll look to hold for now.

Takeaway: How the tables have turned. Microsoft used to be one of the worst Mag 7 performer when Azure disappointed but now its strong FCF has driven up investors' confidence. @Captain's Treasure

Most chips companies are slightly up today but I think the short term volatility and selling pressure still lingers. Let's see how the market reacts after more earnings and Midterms

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US)

Context: The biggest names in banking and retail are starting to fight the tech titans over a new kind of customer: the AI personal agent. JPMorgan Chase, Charles Schwab, Amazon, Neiman Marcus and Kohl's have moved to block personal agents like Meta Muse just as consumers start sending them out to find better savings rates, shop for deals and cancel subscriptions. The era of agentic AI has arrived, but there is uncertainty about what the landscape will look like when virtual storefronts become flooded with AI agents or when a business tries to block them. Reports last week of AI agents going rogue in customer accounts — and prominent politicians including Sen. Mark Warner and Sen. Bernie Sanders calling for bot legislation in response to the headlines — come on the heels of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon saying the bank currently blocks external AI agents from operating on behalf of retail customers, citing security risks.

My Trade: Not much changes. Just monitoring for now

Takeaway: Interesting take on personal AI agents and how commercial institutions are rejecting incorporating them due to security concerns. @Captain's Treasure

Chips' companies are falling steeply as Google, Intel's earnings affected the industry pretty badly. Additionally, Jensen's ties to quote CIA "Chinese intelligence" to help smuggle Nvidia chips to China from Singapore have led to investors spooking out from the possibility of regulation penalties.

$Amazon(AMZN.US)

Context: Amazon's third-quarter earnings gave investors two very different reasons to look at the stock: its cloud business is accelerating at a pace not seen in years, while AI spending is draining cash. JPMorgan sees the investment as the start of a much larger opportunity, putting a $365 price target on Amazon—based on 26.5 times its estimate of Amazon’s 2028 earnings. Amazon Web Services revenue rose 39.3% year over year to $46 billion in the third quarter, its fastest growth in nearly five years. That lifted AWS to a $184 billion annualized revenue run rate, while operating income climbed 55% to $17.8 billion. CEO Andy Jassy expects AWS to grow more than 40% in both 2027 and 2028, eventually generating $1 trillion in annual revenue within five to 10 years. Its backlog — contracted work not yet recognized as revenue — reached $578 billion, up 189% year over year, giving Amazon visibility into future demand. Amazon spent $77.3 billion on capital investments in the third quarter and reiterated that 2026 capital expenditure will reach about $220 billion. Jassy said the company expects to spend "meaningfully more" in 2027 as it builds the data centers and servers needed to meet demand.

My Trade: Wanted to add a bit at lower price but surprisingly Amazon I'd holding up quite well in today's trading session. Will continue to monitor.

Takeaway: JPMorgan argues that the spending is justified because AWS demand is strong, capacity remains tight, and infrastructure investments can generate returns over several years. Amazon also says servers and networking equipment can pay back in less than three years, while data centers have much longer useful lives. @Captain's Treasure

2 of the Mag 7 companies reported earnings, and the response to both is pretty drastic. Alphabet disappointed with lower Search Ad revenue despite promising continued Google Cloud growth. On the other hand, Microsoft Azure also continues to be the main catalyst for them, but the positive reaction also came from lower Capex

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the company thinks of its AI product Copilot "as the new OS for work" and that its "business model is expanding from per-seat subscriptions to include consumption." Nadella said that with Agent 365, the company provides a platform for AI observability, which helps customers to manage and optimize the performance and cost of their agents. He added that “over 50 million agents are now in the registry,” up more than 30% from the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichaisaid on the company’s third-quarter earnings call that Google focused first on enterprise agents “because the bar for security, safety and governance is extremely high." As a next step, he said, the company is bringing the features to Search and "to our billion users on the Gemini app.” He added that “Agents will operate as a unifying layer across our products,” including Chrome, Android and Workspace. The Google parent reported third-quarter revenue of about $127.58 billion, missing analyst estimates of $128.20 billion, according to Benzinga Pro. Shares of the company tumbled about 9.75% to $290.52 after hours on Wednesday. Microsoft reported first-quarter revenue of $92.28 billion, up 19% year-over-year, which beat analysts’ estimate of $90.66 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro. Revenue from the Agents and Infra segment surged 25% year-over-year to $76.8 billion

My Trade:

Takeaway: Alphabet said Gemini models now process nearly 32 billion API tokens per minute, and the Gemini app now has over one billion users, making it the fastest-growing product in the company’s history. Yet the stock is tanking heavily in contrast to Microsoft, who demonstrated that while long term costs could yield better future returns, investors still prefer a stronger balance sheet. @Captain's Treasure

Big night ahead of FOMC and 2 of the Mag 7 reporting earnings after the bell. I personally feel that the FED's tone and attitude might dictate the direction of the market more than the earnings, but I might be wrong. Let's see

$ServiceNow(NOW.US)

Context: ServiceNow will release its third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell today. Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, up from 96 cents per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for NOW’s quarterly revenue is $4.09 billion. It reported $3.41 billion last year. On July 22, ServiceNow reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial results.

My Trade: I'm being patient right now. There is definitely potential to rise further but the odds of it trading sideways is larger.

Takeaway: Analysts expect Servicenow to beat earnings and most are still recommending a Buy or hold with price targets higher than current trading price. @Captain's Treasure

My pick is Amazon.

With Amazon owning a sizable amount of Anthropic and the recent hype surrounding the latter, it could very well be a positive catalyst for the former. Moreover, AWS growth is expected to continue with even better margins. If the Capex can come in within expectations, I don't see why the stocks can't rise.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Context: Alphabet will release earnings for its third quarter after the closing bell on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of $3.00 per share, compared to $2.87 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for GOOGL’s quarterly revenue is $127.83 billion. It reported $102.35 billion last year.

My Trade: Google's share price has been relatively weak in the past few weeks, and a break below $300 could very well be possible. If that happens, I might buy some.

Takeaway: Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai recently said artificial intelligence is still far from independently building more powerful versions of itself, even as Google increasingly relies on AI to develop its next models. @Captain's Treasure

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: Scotiabank raised Microsoft's price target to $625.00 while maintaining a sector outperform rating amid widespread positive analyst sentiment.

Microsoft last released its earnings results on Wednesday, July 29th. The software giant reported $4.74 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $4.24 by $0.50. Microsoft had a return on equity of 31.98% and a net margin of 40.31%. The company had revenue of $90.01 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $87.62 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned $3.65 earnings per share. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 17.7% on a year-over-year basis. On average, equities analysts forecast that Microsoft will post 19.66 EPS for the current fiscal year.

My Trade: I am certainly holding Microsoft at current price, but not interested in adding as I feel the price is slightly on the high side.

Takeaway: Investors and corporate insiders actively adjust their holdings, while analysts continue to monitor AI infrastructure spending and valuation risks. @Captain's Treasure

I'm looking forward to earnings from both Alphabet and Microsoft, but at the same time also a bit tentative on the FOMC minutes. A rate hike in December is certainly on the cards, but more importantly how serious is the inflation impacting the decision of FED is something worth to take note from Warsh's tone of speech this Wednesday