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The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond broke through 5% intraday, marking the first time since October 2023; the probability of a Fed rate hike is now around 92% (CME).

Headwinds to stock market prospects include pressure from rising rate expectations, the upward momentum in oil prices, and market skepticism regarding AI investments.

Saudi Arabia closed its east-west pipeline (from Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu) following a weekend drone strike—the route had previously absorbed crude blocked by the Strait of Hormuz; reportedly, Yanbu's inventory can only sustain 5-7 days of exports.

Brent crude weekly close rose over 8%, reclaiming the $100 level.

With oil prices surging, bonds weakening, optimistic CPI data, and forced rate hike signals, will the stock market crash? Exercise extreme caution.

US PPI rose 5.4% YoY (above the expected 5.3%), pushing the probability of a September rate hike to 71%.

The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points.

Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port of Al-Mokha in Yemen, advancing toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—this conflict continues to keep oil prices elevated.

Considering these factors combined, future expectations should not be overly optimistic.

Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo — its first foldable iPhone and CEO John Ternus's keynote debut — priced from $1,999 to a record $3,199. AAPL closed nearly flat, down -0.28% at $315.34.

A new phone launch alone is no longer enough to move the stock; whether Apple has other core technologies will determine the company's future and investor appetite.

I'm quite worried about Apple's future prospects.

Houthi forces attacked Saudi Aramco facilities and a Royal Saudi Air Force base, injuring 73 people, while the US stated it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers.

Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude to $98.61, with Goldman Sachs raising its Brent/WTI crude forecasts by $5.

Airlines have raised fuel surcharges for flights after year-end; this trend may drag down stock prices of aviation fuel and related sectors.

Iran announced the establishment of a maritime "no-navigation zone" near the Strait of Hormuz; shipping traffic there has reportedly collapsed to its lowest level in five months, pushing US gasoline and diesel prices to record highs.

The shipping market is fueling the fire: amid soaring oil prices, large vessels rerouting, and an impending tariff war, freight rates can only be raised further, thereby becoming a driver of inflation.

The August non-farm payrolls released last week increased by 162k, roughly triple the consensus estimate of 56k, marking the strongest performance since March.

This has pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 60.3%. A pullback in the early trading session is anticipated.

The Singapore stock market opened lower on Monday, but should stabilize as the three major banks find footing, facilitating a smooth transition for the Straits Times Index.

Fed Governor Waller stated that if August inflation continues to improve, he supports keeping interest rates unchanged in September, lowering the probability of a rate hike from 63% the previous day to 52%.

The main focus remains on tonight's non-farm payroll results.

Prior expectations for rate cuts or a hold were merely derailed by the odds of a rate hike.

NVIDIA shares rose +3.21% to $224.41, hitting a new high since late August. Various rumors regarding investments in startups and the actual launch of strategic alliance agreements have been driving the stock. However, as the largest tech chip company by volume, it has matured and its volatility is now contained within limits, leaving little room for significant further upside.

The U.S. Central Command struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets on Tuesday; Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in Jordan and Bahrain. Oil prices surged over 5%, with WTI settling up 5.20% at $90.22; Brent crude rose 4.6% to $94.65, hitting a new high.

Geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the economic outlook are causing confusion and reckless bets among investors.

Fears of a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict drove oil prices higher, reaching 88.3, with WTI crude at $83.44.

The US Dollar Index continued its two-month downtrend, while the yen kept falling.

The probability of a Fed rate hike has increased to over 50%.

Local bank stocks saw their volatility narrow after short-term fluctuations.

I think we should wait and see. There might be significant swings in the second half of the week.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered an unexpected hawkish surprise in his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday, warning that inflation trends have not yet "significantly improved" and raising the probability of a September rate hike from about one-third to even odds.

The rate hike news will weigh down the stock market, while bank lending stocks are expected to climb.

Catching this tailwind, shares of Singapore's three major banks are set to see another pullback after dividend payouts.

NVIDIA surged 8.74%, adding $442bn to its market cap in a single trading session, marking the second-largest single-day gain for any stock. Data center revenue reached $89bn (+117% YoY), with Q3 guidance at $108bn.

NVIDIA reversed last week's consecutive declines, which was an inevitable trend; as the industry leader, its position remains unshaken.