Heroic Lifesaver

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Post 2 of Episode 22

Context: NVIDIA has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout, but a great company does not automatically mean an unlimited position size. As the share price appreciated and my portfolio gained exposure to other parts of the AI stack, I became more conscious of concentration and valuation risk.

My trade: I gradually trimmed my NVIDIA position rather than exiting completely. I wanted to lock in gains while retaining some exposure to a company that remains central to AI compute. At the same time, I redeployed capital toward less obvious bottlenecks across networking, memory, optics and power.

Takeaway: You don’t have to stop believing in a company to reduce a position. Sometimes trimming a winner is simply good portfolio management—especially when it creates room for opportunities with a better risk/reward setup.

@Captain's Treasure

The AI buildout is being backed up by actual revenues and profit which keeps scaling up as compute requirements goes up. IMO, that is enough to differentiate itself from a ‘bubble’.

Nice rotation going on. As markets try to read a strong labour market and its effects, capital flows back into sold down AI tech beneficiaries of power, memory and networking ilk.

I believe the Fed chair had to be hawkish last week for credibility and to be fair he was doing the correct thing. The market as usual likes to over react and overthink.

I believe the upcoming job data will be crucial in market’s expectations going forward. A soft labour market is what the bulls want.

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

$GLD

Context: My portfolio is heavily tilted toward high-growth technology and AI-related stocks, so I wanted an asset that could behave differently when macro uncertainty, geopolitical risk or market volatility rises. Gold fitted that role better for me than trying to time every market correction.

My trade: I built and continue to hold my GLD position primarily as a portfolio diversifier and hedge, rather than as a short-term momentum trade. The aim is to reduce overall portfolio fragility while allowing my higher-conviction growth positions room to work.

Takeaway: Not every position needs to outperform the market. Sometimes its job is simply to make the overall portfolio stronger and easier to hold through volatility.

@Captain's Treasure

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

📍 My Call: US$389.50

💬 Why: Broadcom enters earnings with expectations reset after a substantial pullback while AI infrastructure demand remains strong.

I expect Q3 results to broadly meet or exceed guidance, with a constructive Q4 AI outlook restoring investor confidence.

However, elevated bond yields may cap multiple expansion, making a 3–8% post-earnings gain my base case.

p.s: I am unable to vote even though its not yet 3rd September which is when the vote closed so do consider this as my vote: +3 to +8% (up 3% to 8%) 🙏🏼

@Captain's Watch

@Captain Leo

IMHO, the oil chart looks like a bull trap. I have already sold off oil related names like Exxon Mobil and Chevron at these levels.

Everyone are still focused on the chips and the accelerators which to be fair are still relevant. However, I am more concerned with the beneficiaries such as energy, memory and networking etc. I want to see if they are truly benefiting. Companies like Nvidia and AVGO already have growth factored into their price.

Nothing surprising with Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. He has to state what is in line with the data and data does not point to inflation being tamed yet.

Well it is Walsh’s maiden Jackson Hole’s speech, the debut if I may say so. Looking at his style and demeanour as well as desire to stand aside and be different from his predecessors, he would probably not give too much away and say something like ‘We will continue to monitor inflation and are ready to act if we need to. I believe AI will have a deflationary effect on the economy and as such will not be too hasty in our decisions.’

$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

Sandisk will be the 5th chapter of this ongoing trade showcase episode. I thought it apt to close with one of the strong names in the sector named as the short term constraint for the AI buildout.

As we all know, during its earnings details, Nvidia mentioned memory as the short term constraint to scale AI. And in the memory sector, amongst the few behemoths, Sandisk stands out as a complementary provider and one of the very important producers of NAND.

Those who reads into the details will know that HBM is the other often quoted memory component. Both serve different functions and both are important.

So fundamental wise, Nvidia has confirmed the thesis but IMHO, the market is still pricing the memory names as a cyclical rather than embrace the fact that AI has changed this aspect.

Sandisk and Micron are both running PEGs of much less than 1 even at these prices.

Technically, I believe Sandisk is in an uber bullish 12 12 pattern with the market about to reprice and that is what that third wave will do.

NFA though but if supports hold and price is consolidating nicely, the bullish pattern looks pretty awesome.

@Captain's Treasure

It will be Fed chairman Warsh’s first speech at Jackson’s Hole and the market will be closely trying to figure out his stance. Hawkish or dovish? I don’t think he will say much but maintain that the Fed will do what is necessary yadah yadah. 🤓

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Usually I talk about Nvidia at the start of the week. But since Nvidia just posted results, I thought it relevant to do an update post on her as well as participate in the trade showcase event.

Earnings summary

Nvidia’s results beat across the board. Nothing surprising as she always does well. And hence the market always expects more. And the market did sell her off initially (on awesome results at that! What’s up with you Mr Market? 😂).

However, as guidance comes in,

1. It becomes clear that demand is far outpacing supply.

2. Estimates were pulled from 2028 to 2027.

3. Short term constraint is memory.

4. Mid term constraint is power, land and shell.

5. Gross margin drops from 75% to 72% due to memory costs.

Mr Market now seems to like that and is green pre market.

And so as the saying goes - The proof is in the pudding. AI is here to stay and that is confirmed with technicals and price action. The safest route is usually the obvious one.

@Captain's Treasure

Nvidia outperformed as expected and as expected as well, the market demands more (sounds much like Singaporean parents 🤭). I will elaborate more in my trade showcase highlight on Nvidia. 😊