dingdongbell

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)

Post 5 Episode 23

Context: What has strengthened my AAOI thesis is that high-speed optics demand is now translating into actual production pressure. In Q2, revenue reached a record $191.9 million, 800G volumes more than doubled sequentially, and management said demand for 800G and 1.6T products is expected to outpace production capacity through mid-2027.

My trade: That changes how I look at AAOI. The question is increasingly less about whether hyperscalers need faster optical links and more about whether AAOI can execute its manufacturing ramp. The company is targeting roughly 650,000 units of monthly 800G/1.6T capacity by year-end, versus capacity approaching 200,000 currently. Its Q3 revenue guidance of $255–290 million also points to another sizeable step-up if execution follows through.

Takeaway: Growth stories become more compelling when the constraint moves from “Can we find customers?” to “How quickly can we build enough product?” For AAOI, the next chapter may be less about proving the AI-optics opportunity exists — and more about executing fast enough to capture it.

@Captain's Treasure

When sentiments are bearish with so many narratives from oil to yields, etc., not putting a dent in the market while the bears keep blabbering, it reminds me that markets top on euphoria. Doesn’t look euphoric to me when there are so many bears around!

$GLD SG(GSD.SG)

Post 4 Episode 23

Context: One advantage of holding gold through the SGD counter is simplicity. I can add or reduce my gold allocation directly in Singapore dollars, without first converting capital into USD. For a portfolio where much of my growth exposure is already USD-denominated, that makes GSD a convenient way to keep part of my defensive allocation operationally in SGD.

My trade: I use GSD for essentially the same underlying gold exposure as GLD, but with the convenience of SGD trading and settlement. That can make rebalancing easier and potentially avoids unnecessary FX-conversion costs depending on the broker. Importantly, though, the SGD counter itself does not remove currency effects — its price should broadly reflect the same underlying shares translated through the prevailing exchange rate.

Takeaway: Sometimes the advantage is not a different investment, but a better way of owning it. GSD gives me gold exposure while letting me deploy and rebalance SGD directly — useful when I already have plenty of USD exposure elsewhere in the portfolio.

@Captain's Treasure

If you think markets are worth investing in, do so. If not sit out. Who cares if rates are that high? Unless you are the US government then of course you need to do something. Haha.

It looks like the market is at a decision point. It needs to decide where it wants to go. Meander here and it might retreat before going higher. We need long white candles to herald the age of the bulls!

$Apple(AAPL.US)

Context: What makes Apple interesting to me is that its biggest advantage may not be any single product. It is the enormous ecosystem already in users’ hands. When Apple introduces a new service, feature or computing layer, it does not start from zero — it can distribute it across an established base of highly engaged customers.

My trade: I see Apple less as a pure hardware story and more as an ecosystem business. The opportunity is in how effectively it can keep increasing the value of each user relationship through devices, services and new software experiences.

However, I believe there is better value and gains in other names with Apple being more of a defensive tech play than growth. Hence it remains a placeholder in my portfolio.

Takeaway: In technology, distribution can be just as powerful as innovation. The company that already owns the customer relationship often has a huge advantage when the next platform shift arrives. However, depending on the investor’s profile, Apple can be an excellent choice if safety is paramount.

@Captain's Treasure

What a rally by AI tech on Muse’s success and proof that AI can be monetised giving further impetus to the AI buildout. This is only agentic AI and only scratching the surface on what this technology is able to do.

Blockchain and Tokenisation will be the new revolution of traditional finance. Not surprising to see some resistance to the Clarity Act from probably the bank lobbyists. But they have to adapt and shape up! Together with AI, the financial landscape is undergoing a revolution.

$GLD SG(GSD.SG)

Post 2 Episode 23

Context: One reason I keep gold in the portfolio is that it gives me something very different from my growth holdings. When equities become volatile, I don’t want every position reacting to the same narrative at the same time.

My trade: I see my Singapore-listed gold position as a form of portfolio optionality. If risk assets come under pressure while gold remains resilient, it gives me a relatively defensive asset that I can simply hold — or potentially rebalance from later when better opportunities appear elsewhere.

Takeaway: A hedge does not always need to make money at exactly the moment stocks fall. Sometimes its real value is giving you the confidence, liquidity and patience not to make a bad decision when markets become uncomfortable. That, to me, is one of gold’s most underrated roles.

@Captain's Treasure

Typical market over reaction to the Fed hikes before realising its all priced in. Institutions wait for retail to sell the news and promptly bought up the sale.

It looks like the Fed has decided to listen to the market and give them what they want. The Fed is not ‘independent’ after all! If they don’t listen to the president, they listen to the market.

$APAC Realty(CLN.SG)

Context: What interests me about APAC Realty is that it offers exposure to Singapore’s property market through transactions rather than property ownership. Through ERA, the business participates across new launches, resale, leasing and other property services, so its earnings are closely tied to market activity and transaction volumes. In FY2025, brokerage contributed more than 90% of gross profit, while the group handled about S$33.3 billion of brokerage transaction value.

My trade: I see APAC Realty as a different kind of Singapore exposure — less about collecting rent or betting directly on property prices, and more about the flow of transactions through the market. That gives me a way to participate when buying, selling and leasing activity improves, while keeping the business model relatively asset-light.

Takeaway: Sometimes you don’t need to own the asset to benefit from the activity around it. In property, the transaction platform can be just as interesting as the property itself.

@Captain's Treasure

Everyone is talking about the Fed’s decision and how they will certainly raise rates. Haha….If I am Warsh I will show who’s the boss and hold or best cut rates. Then hand over to Bessent to wait for the bond vigilantes to move and then buy, buy, buy short squeeze them all, sell Fort Knox’s gold as gold prices spike, throw the kitchen sink at the market!

Imagine the FUD shortlist’s reaction as they scramble to cover.

Mwahahahahaha! 😂

Haha….What a joke asking others to slow down when you have the fastest car around? You slow

down your car first if you are scared you are moving too fast! 😂

Why only now conveniently would you want to ‘slow down’ AI when you are about to launch your IPO? Is it to benefit your company so that others cannot catch up as well as look ‘morally upright’ so that others cannot compete when regulations are placed (if they do) henceforth keeping your company ahead? Only Anthropic can answer this….

And if you believe so, then just do it!