执笔画乾坤--Justin

Commercial space is still in its early stages. Names like $Iridium Comm(IRDM.US), $Procure Space ETF(UFO.US), and $Momentus(MNTS.US) rely on launches and mission milestones to drive them forward. When there's no news, you have to learn to wait.

In the deep end of the Hong Kong stock market, there are a bunch of inconspicuous names, $LUNG FUNG GROUP(02290.HK), $SMART FISH(00139.HK), $BUTONG GROUP(06090.HK), $EKH(02523.HK). These small-cap stocks usually don't make much of a splash. $TRAVELSKY TECH(00696.HK) makes a living from ticket distribution, with low attention and thin liquidity🫥

$Merck(MRK.US), $Abbvie(ABBV.US) - the pipeline stories of these big pharma companies always run quietly in the background. Names like $Viking Therap(VKTX.US), $CRISPR Therap(CRSP.US), and $Crinetics Pharmaceuticals(CRNX.US) have been popping up quite frequently lately in weight loss and gene editing discussion threads. The waters of the pharmaceutical industry are never short of undercurrents.

The story of innovative drugs going global has never truly cooled down this year. Names like $CSPC PHARMA(01093.HK) and $BEONE MEDICINES(06160.HK) are being brought up again, while the medical device sector over at $Boston Scientific(BSX.US) has consistently been a stable performer. The spark in the sector keeps flaring up from time to time.

$CHERY AUTO(09973.HK) There has been ongoing speculation about its upcoming listing, and $CAOCAO INC(02643.HK), a mobility platform, is also queuing up. The story of new forces and mobility in the Hong Kong stock market continues.

The innovation drug going global and CXO sector has never truly cooled down this year. Names like $WUXI XDC(02268.HK), $PHARMARON(03759.HK), $ANTENGENE-B(06996.HK), and $EVEREST MED(01952.HK) have all popped up together again. The potential for pipeline and orders is still there, and the sector's spark could flare up again at any moment.

AI keeps shouting about power shortages every day, and those involved in power generation and storage like $Plug Power(PLUG.US), $Enphase Energy(ENPH.US), $DONGFANG ELEC(01072.HK), and $DATANG POWER(00991.HK) get to benefit from it — the endgame of selling shovels is selling electricity itself, which is absurd but seems to make some sense.

$Intellia Therap(NTLA.US), $CRISPR Therap(CRSP.US) are being talked about again, and $Vor BioPharma(VOR.US), $Summit Therapeutics(SMMT.US), $Absci(ABSI.US) are also popping up on the list. As long as there are new data for the stories of gene editing and AI drug development, the market's sparks can always be reignited.

Iluvatar has fallen by almost five percentage points, and E Fund Asia Semiconductor ETF has also dropped by a similar amount—both China-concept AI chip individual stocks and the Asia semiconductor sector have weakened. Domestic computing power chips have been supported by policies and the narrative of import substitution over the past two years, but this pullback without new news seems more like being dragged down along with the broader market and external semiconductor sentiment.

Rambus rose slightly, Vishay Precision Group edged up, Guanghe Technology basically hovered around the flat line. Among the several semiconductor stocks, those focused on interfaces and passive components showed little movement today 🙃

Without direct AI-driven momentum or significant improvement in end-demand, they just quietly followed the broader market with minor fluctuations, in a state where you can leave them alone without worry.

GSI Technology surged over 30%; sudden movements in obscure small-cap stocks often correspond to orders or acquisition rumors; Swarmer surged over 20%; Antelope Enterprise also rose nearly 20%; Aeluma rose over 10%. All four have extremely poor liquidity, and there's a high probability of a collective pullback at the next day's open. For such movements, would you wait for a pullback to enter or just give up?

Innovent Biologics has recently fallen by nearly 2%. Hong Kong-listed biotech stocks are significantly influenced by foreign investor sentiment. Mingming Hen Mang is a snack discount chain. Its growth logic within the sector is clear, but digesting its valuation will take time. These two have completely different underlying logics, and both require waiting for their respective catalysts.

Lianlian DigiTech rose 2.7%, with stable demand for cross-border payments; OSL Group rose 0.65%, as the gradual clarification of the regulatory framework for crypto exchanges provides medium-term support; HashKey edged up 0.42%; Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell slightly by 0.63%, with trading volume not showing a significant increase, and equity-oriented market sentiment is still accumulating; Webull is moving gently in line with the industry.

The overall trend of crypto-financial targets is linked to the pace of improvement in Hong Kong stock liquidity, with the direction depending on the sustainability of on-market capital activity.

Hushang Auntie and Mingming Hen Mang are both representatives of consumption in the lower-tier market; the former focuses on tea drinks, while the latter focuses on snack discounts, both benefiting from the consumption tiering narrative.

Saturday Fu's gold and jewelry demand forms a tailwind against the backdrop of gold prices breaking through $3100/ounce, with Q1 same-store performance expected to be strong.

The businesses of different groups are relatively niche, with lower liquidity.

The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock consumption sector is about 15 times, lower than the 25-30 times of similar A-shares. The discount is due to a liquidity premium, and narrowing this gap requires an expansion in the scale of southbound capital.

PayPal's recent performance has been lackluster, barely gaining half a point in a day. It feels like the hanging faith is about to be worn away. Interactive Brokers is quite laid-back with little volatility, while Bank of America has been quite spirited these past few days. The financial big brother suddenly becoming so active, is capital about to turn back and chase traditional finance again?

Gold still rose 2.8% after the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, indicating that the market doubts the sustainability of the ceasefire, with some capital insisting on holding gold to hedge against the risk of a "ceasefire breakdown"—this is a clear supportive signal for gold stocks.

Shandong Gold and Chifeng Gold are leading traditional mining companies, highly sensitive to gold price fluctuations; Lingbao Gold has strong cost control capabilities, forming a preference base for risk-averse investors. Laopu Gold belongs to the gold jewelry retail sector, more influenced by domestic consumer sentiment, and its correlation with raw gold prices is weaker than that of mining companies. Zijin Gold International, backed by the Zijin Mining system, has significant synergistic effects.

$SoundHound AI(SOUN.US) This position is really quite delicate—RSI is around 43, having just bounced back from the oversold zone, MACD only turned positive on April 1st, but the entire moving average system is still bearish, with the 20-day line at $6.98 and the 60-day line at $8.38 acting as resistance. The $7.20 level near the current price is a key support; once it breaks, the trend continuation is basically confirmed.

$BigBear.ai(BBAI.US) The 20-day line at $6.78 is providing resistance, but the short-term Stochastic is showing a rebound tendency from oversold levels, and the 200-day moving average is consistently above. Overall, it's still weak, no need to rush in.

$CloudFlare(NET.US)$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) Both of these are in a bearish pattern—CRWD is currently around $398, RSI about 40, MACD negative, at the lower Bollinger Band, but the options flow is bullish, with a call/put ratio leaning long. There's strong GEX hedging pressure near $393; if it holds here, a short-term rebound to the $412 resistance zone is possible. Risk-reward reference: Entry $395 / Stop $385 / Target $412, roughly 1:1.7.

$Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US) The moving averages are still bearishly aligned, with no clear volume support visible, so it's mainly a wait-and-see situation.

New energy has really been like a roller coaster lately: RUN finally showed some improvement today, rising over 4%, but every time I get excited, I'm afraid it will be beaten back down tomorrow. QS fell another two-plus points, which is not surprising at all; I'm used to the high volatility. And small-cap stocks like LTBR keep fluctuating, making them hard to figure out.

$BigBear.ai(BBAI.US) Today's unusual movement has a traceable cause—news related to defense AI procurement spreads quickly on social platforms, and BBAI itself has a small float, so even a slight move by institutions can result in a big green candlestick. 🤔

Trump Media is just like yesterday, purely driven by sentiment, with no fundamental triggers. The corresponding social media buzz is highly synchronized with the political news cycle, and this kind of volatility has historically been intraday.

The trading volume for FIGR and POLA has also increased, but in two different ways—FIGR seems like someone is testing the waters, while POLA looks more like it passively followed BBAI's defense tech sector movement.

$CloudFlare(NET.US) $Adobe(ADBE.US) $Salesforce(CRM.US) $ServiceNow(NOW.US) $Synopsys(SNPS.US)

The divergence among these stocks has been intensifying recently; they can't be viewed as a single sector as a whole:

Cloudflare is seesawing repeatedly near its previous high resistance level. GEX data from the options market shows a thick layer of hedging positions at this level, requiring significant momentum to break through.

ServiceNow has the strongest moving average structure in this group, with a three-line bullish alignment and expanding MACD histogram.

Adobe is currently in a seesawing range around the 200-day moving average, with no clear direction yet.

Salesforce's RSI is rebounding from the oversold zone, while Synopsys's weekly support level is holding relatively firm.

NET and NOW could be considered for entry on a short-term pullback, with a stop-loss set at the low of the most recent weekly candlestick; Adobe should be watched for now while below its moving averages.

The core contradiction of "EV demand + lithium price recovery" lies in copper prices — copper is the best leading indicator of global industrial demand. If copper doesn't rise, it means expectations for EV demand expansion are cooling down, and lithium can hardly strengthen independently outside this framework.

$Albemarle(ALB.US) $Sigma Lithium(SGML.US) $Lithium Americas(LAC.US)

Do you know that for those frantically built AI data centers, what's in the shortest supply isn't chips, it's electricity and cooling? $Vertiv(VRT.US) is exactly the company that solves this problem—providing the full suite of power supply systems, UPS, and liquid cooling equipment. NVIDIA makes the guns, and it sells the bullets.

The Q4 earnings report was a bombshell: single-quarter orders surged 252% year-over-year, the order backlog skyrocketed to $15 billion, doubling from last year, with delivery schedules stretching 12-18 months out. The CEO famously said on the earnings call: "We ain't done yet," meaning it's not over.

The full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $13.25–$13.75 billion, representing 28% organic growth, with adjusted EPS expected at $6.02, a 43% year-over-year increase.

Then, good news kept coming: On March 9, it was announced to be included in the S&P 500 index, effective March 23. The stock price jumped 9.3% that day, subsequently reaching a historical high of $276.78. Inclusion in the index means global passive funds must buy, representing real capital inflow. The next earnings date is April 29; if orders continue to exceed expectations, the target price will be revised upward again.

This is a solid core player in the AI infrastructure track.

The market has been a bit of a mess these past couple of days. The cyclical stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Lingbao Gold saw steady small gains, Muyuan also gave a bit of meat, pig farmers are just chilling and watching; consumer stocks like Haidilao, their rebound strength is just so uninspiring. The most heartbreaking one is still Aixin Yuanzhi, this AI chip track sounds fierce, but today it directly dropped -4%, the brothers who chased the high must be feeling a bit of internal conflict now... Feeling like holding cycles in the left hand and tech in the right, but in the end, it's still gold that keeps you alive, this market is really making people gradually desire nothing 🙏

$GOLDWIND(02208.HK) had another small red candle today. The recent trend in the new energy sector has been really zen. Honestly, the company's fundamentals aren't bad, but the market just isn't giving it much support. This daily grind has me forgetting whether I'm here to trade stocks or cultivate inner peace😂

The long-term direction of green energy is solid, but unfortunately, capital is still hesitating, and so am I. Holding my position, not daring to move much, and lacking the motivation to add. I'll continue as an observer, waiting to see who steps up to lead the charge first🧐

There's been a very interesting phenomenon in the market over the past two days. Tech stocks have been lackluster, but traditional sectors like fertilizers and energy have been exceptionally strong.

Take $CF Industries(CF.US) for example. At its core, it's a nitrogen fertilizer producer. Yet, since the Iran conflict began, its stock price has become one of the biggest gainers in the S&P. Urea prices have recently risen even more than oil prices.

This is essentially a classic case of "supply chain geopolitical trade." The Middle East is a major fertilizer export region. Once logistics get jammed, the global agricultural system is immediately affected.

Furthermore, US natural gas costs are much lower than Europe's, giving US fertilizer plants significant profit flexibility. That's also why capital is now frantically buying companies like $CF Industries(CF.US), $Mosaic(MOS.US), and $Nutrien(NTR.US).

My personal view is:

This wave looks more like a "hard asset rotation," with capital moving out of the volatility in AI and tech and starting to seek certainty.

The question is, how long can this rotation last?