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As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

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Trump's Frequent Tech Stock Trades in Q1 2026 Spark Conflict of Interest Concerns

Microsoft plans to launch its largest data center in India in mid-2026

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ADP Weekly NER pulse 42.25K vs 33K last week

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The ADP NER Pulse indicates a rise in private employment, with the current week's four-week average at 42.25K compared to 33K last week. This high-frequency labor market indicator provides real-time insights into hiring trends, influencing Federal Reserve policy. A stronger pulse suggests aggressive hiring, supporting economic growth but potentially increasing inflation pressures, while a weakening pulse may indicate slowing labor demand and expectations for rate cuts.

- The ADP NER Pulse is a new high-frequency labor market indicator that tracks weekly changes in private sector employment using a four-week moving average.  
- It aims to provide real-time insights into recruitment trends, influencing market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and economic growth.  
- A stronger NER Pulse may indicate robust hiring, potentially exerting inflationary pressure and supporting higher yields, while a weaker pulse could signal a slowdown in labor demand, impacting interest rate expectations and the dollar.

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U.S. credit card delinquencies have surged to 13.1%, the highest since 2010, indicating significant financial strain on households. Delinquencies rose 0.4 percentage points in Q1 2026, with a total increase of 5.5 points since Q3 2022. Additionally, student loan delinquencies reached 10.3%, and auto loan delinquencies hit a record 5.6%, reflecting growing repayment stress among consumers.

- Credit card delinquency rates in the U.S. have surged to a 15-year high, hitting 13.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to The Kobeissi Letter.  
- This marks a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a significant rise of 5.5 percentage points since Q3 2022, surpassing trends seen from 2007 to 2010.  
- Additionally, serious delinquencies in student and auto loans have also increased, reflecting mounting repayment pressures on American households.

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Americans Are Falling Behind On Credit Card Payments At The Fastest Pace Since 2010

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US stocks fall further from their records

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US stocks fall further from their records

The Federal Reserve's report reveals that 25% of U.S. workers have used generative AI in their jobs recently, with higher rates among those with advanced education. Most users view AI as a tool for efficiency and career growth. The report also highlights stable financial conditions for U.S. residents, though younger individuals and low-income families face increased financial pressures, with inflation being a primary concern.

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Generative AI Gains Traction in U.S. Workforce, Federal Reserve Report Reveals

Economists warn that the Iran war is increasing inflation expectations, pressuring the Fed to act. A U.S.-led blockade and Hormuz closure have reduced Iranian oil exports, raising global energy prices. Consequently, mortgage and bond yields are rising in the U.S. and Europe as borrowing costs increase amid inflation concerns.

Iran war fuels inflation fears as July Fed hike looms

.DJUS

The Great American Squeeze of 2026 highlights the economic struggles faced by Americans due to rising costs of living, with consumer sentiment at a 74-year low. While the wealthy benefit from a booming stock market, middle and lower-income families are increasingly burdened by debt and inflation, leading to a K-shaped economy where the divide between the rich and poor widens. This situation may signal the onset of a recession as lower-income households cut back on spending.

- The article highlights the economic struggles of American consumers facing rising costs amid stagnant wages, creating a K-shaped economic divide.  
- While wealthier households benefit from stock market gains, middle- and lower-income families increasingly rely on credit to manage basic expenses, leading to financial distress.  
- Experts warn that without significant wage growth, the economic squeeze on lower-income households will worsen, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices.

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The Great American Squeeze Of 2026

.VIX

The 10-year Treasury yield has reached a 52-week high of 4.6%, indicating potential significant market movements. This yield influences borrowing costs and stock valuations, with rising yields typically leading to a shift away from equities. Current inflationary pressures, particularly related to the Iran conflict, may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise rates. Analysts are divided on whether yields will break higher or lower, with implications for future monetary policy and market stability.

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The Bond Market Just Flashed Red

Wall Street's major indices closed lower on Friday, with the Dow down 1%, S&P 500 down 1.2%, and Nasdaq down 1.5%, following a decline in tech stocks and rising U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S.-China summit.

- Wall Street’s major market averages declined on Friday due to a drop in tech stocks and rising U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S.-China summit.  
- The blue chip Dow (DJI) closed down 1%, the S&P 500 (SP500) fell by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) decreased by 1.5%.  
- Investors are advised to monitor three key factors in the market moving forward.

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3 things to look out for on Tuesday

The Federal Reserve may struggle to cut interest rates this year due to persistent inflation concerns, with U.S. PCE inflation projected to stay above 3.5%. Factors such as inflation surprises, a stable job market, and energy price risks from the closed Strait of Hormuz are leading to a cautious policy stance.

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Federal Reserve Faces Challenges in Cutting Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

April inflation surged to 3.8%, exceeding wage growth and diminishing workers' spending power. As a result, 53% of Americans with side hustles report they rely on these earnings, averaging $1,275 monthly, to cover essential expenses. This trend is evident in West Michigan, where residents are starting various ventures, indicating a national shift towards supplemental income.

- April inflation reached 3.8%, outpacing average wage growth and diminishing workers' purchasing power for the first time in three years.  
- A study found that 53% of Americans with side jobs rely on them to cover essential expenses, earning an average of $1,275 monthly.  
- The trend is illustrated locally in West Michigan, where residents are starting businesses ranging from woodworking to dog sitting, aligned with a national shift towards supplemental income.

Inflation surge pushes more Americans into side hustles

Fed's Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of addressing high inflation as Warsh prepares to take over as chair. He notes the stability of the job market but warns that excessive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation. The markets are currently anticipating a 50% likelihood of a rate hike by year-end.

Fed's Goolsbee; Inflation has got to be front of mind when Warsh starts as chair

Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)

ADP Weekly NER pulse 42.25K vs 33K last week

Americans Are Falling Behind On Credit Card Payments At The Fastest Pace Since 2010

US stocks fall further from their records

Generative AI Gains Traction in U.S. Workforce, Federal Reserve Report Reveals

Iran war fuels inflation fears as July Fed hike looms

The Great American Squeeze Of 2026

The Bond Market Just Flashed Red

3 things to look out for on Tuesday

Federal Reserve Faces Challenges in Cutting Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

Inflation surge pushes more Americans into side hustles

Fed's Goolsbee; Inflation has got to be front of mind when Warsh starts as chair