DSBJ

Expert Takeaways: Meta's Optical Demand

> Meta signed a $6B deal with Corning for MPO fiber cables to power its next-gen AI data center infrastructure.

> Zhongji, Eoptolink, and Cohr lead Meta’s optical supply chain, with new entrants Dongshan, Cambridge, and Lumentum gaining share across 800G & 1.6T.

> Low risk of a full FCC ban, but if hit, Meta plans to buffer 6+ months of optical inventory and pull forward CPO adoption by 6–12 months.

> Meta shifts to NPO starting 2027 (85% non-optical port mix) before fully scaling Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) around 2029–2030.

> Broadcom powers Meta's NPO silicon photonics platform, with Cohr, Zhongji, Eoptolink, Lumentum, and Dongshan supplying optical engines.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Corning(GLW.US)

Citi: EML Output

> Industry Shift Toward 200G and CW: Across almost all listed companies, there is a marked transition away from 100G EML production by 2028, with a significant ramp-up in both 200G EML and CW output.

> AXT, Inc. Growth: AXT, Inc. shows a substantial increase in its 200G EML and CW output, with its 200G EML output projected to grow from 13.54 million chips in 2025 to 157.82 million chips by 2028.

> Rapid Expansion in China: Companies such as Source Photonics (Dongshan Precision) and the "Other China" category show dramatic growth in CW output. Source Photonics, for example, is projected to increase its CW output from 14.66 million chips in 2025 to 161.77 million chips by 2028.

> Sumitomo Electric: Sumitomo maintains high production levels, particularly in the 200G EML segment, which jumps from 28.93 million in 2025 to 128.58 million in 2028.

(h/t: @yulin98434)