CTG DUTY-FREE

Tonight $CTG DUTY-FREE(601888.SH) released its Q1 2026 results. With the annual report just out, the thesis is largely unchanged, so Dolphin Research will keep it brief.

1) Revenue growth underwhelmed. Total revenue was approx. RMB 16.9bn (+~1% YoY), with a slight QoQ deceleration.

In the first CNY peak season after Hainan's customs closure, CTG Duty Free's sales growth was lackluster. By contrast, the offshore duty-free sector overall delivered much stronger sales...

0429 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The Fed will hold its policy meeting in Washington this week, with the decision due Wed 2:00pm ET (Thu 2:00am Beijing). Markets will focus on the rate decision, policy stance and forward guidance on the easing path.

On the evening of Mar 30, $CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE(601888.SH) released its FY2025 annual report. Since a preliminary earnings flash was already published, there is no expectation gap (Bloomberg consensus was simply not updated in time). Dolphin Research therefore reads the results from two angles: ① the latest trend signals emerging from quarterly performance; ② granular data points disclosed only in semi-annual/annual reports. Details below: 1) On the top line, CTG Duty Free delivered total revenue slightly above RMB 13.8bn, up 3% YoY — the first positive growth since 2024. Policy stimulus and progress toward Hainan's customs seal-off are clearly driving an improving trajectory...

0224 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry. Trump signaled a preference for a diplomatic deal over military action on the Iran issue. Geopolitical tensions cooled quickly, and the Geneva talks on Feb 26 remain on schedule.

0120 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industries 1) On Jan 20, the State Council Information Office held a press briefing on implementing the Central Economic Work Conference. The goal is to ensure a solid start to the 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030).

1230 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector. HK and A-share robotics stocks rallied in tandem today.

1219 Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry.

BOJ raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%, in line with market expectations, marking a 30-year high and the second hike within 11 months since Jan 2025, as core inflation has stayed above the 2% target for 44 straight months and a weaker yen is fueling imported price pressures.

Twenty-four leading AI firms, including Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and OpenAI, ...

1105 ｜Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. China has made adjustments to its tariff policy on the United States, announcing the suspension of the previously imposed 24% tariff rate on certain imported goods originating from the United States, while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate. The policy adjustment focuses on balancing trade costs and domestic demand, specifically covering a range of goods including machinery and electronic components. In the short term, the policy will alleviate market concerns about the 'escalation of the tariff war,' while in the long term, further adjustments to tariffs will need to be assessed based on the progress of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations...

A few days ago, China Duty Free Group (CDFG) released its Q3 2025 financial report. Due to previous conflicts with other financial report release times, Dolphin Research is providing a brief commentary today: 1. After a year and a half of continuous decline, revenue growth has finally stabilized: In Q3 2025, the company's total revenue was approximately 11.7 billion yuan, roughly flat year-on-year (partly due to the increasingly lower year-on-year base). This finally marks a stabilization. Consistent with Dolphin Research's previous view, after six consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, the worst period is likely over. The overall performance of the offshore duty-free market is similar to that of the company, with the total offshore duty-free sales in this quarter declining by 2.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow...

1030 ｜Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. On October 29th, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced its second rate cut of the year by 25 basis points, lowering the interest rate range to 3.75%-4%, and scheduled to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st. However, the decision saw rare dissent, with one vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut and one vote opposing the rate cut. Powell stated that a rate cut in December is 'far from certain.' U.S. stocks rose first and then fell, with increased uncertainty in December's policy, coupled with high valuations in U.S. stocks, sector rotation may intensify. It is necessary to closely monitor subsequent employment and inflation data...