After a sharp pullback in the share price, bearish sentiment on Pop Mart has built quickly. How should we view the stock at current levels? Based on the newly released Q1 data, here is a quick take on $POP MART(09992.HK).
A quick math check: using channel checks and assuming last year's Q1 contributed 40% of 1H revenue (~RMB 5.5bn), and taking the midpoint of a 75%–80% growth range, 1Q26 revenue is roughly RMB 9.8bn.Against last year's peak Q4 (estimated ~RMB 10.4bn, assuming 2H was 45% of full-year), the QoQ decline is single digit.This contrasts with some foreign brokers' expectations for a double-digit QoQ drop and, in our view, constitutes a topline beat.
China: +100%–105% YoY stands out as the biggest surprise, driven by the rapid ramp of newer IPs such as Xingxingren and continued strength in online channels.With category expansion into accessories and desserts, the domestic market is far from saturated, and refined operations still leave ample room for growth.
APAC: +25%–30% YoY remains the core overseas base and the earliest to scale.After two years of explosive growth in SEA, the region has entered a 'high-penetration + high-base' normalized phase, making this growth pace steady and broadly in line.
Americas: +55%–60% YoY / Europe: +60%–65% YoY look soft considering the low base and low penetration a year ago, falling short of the expected high-growth elasticity.Management flagged on the call that both regions are in an organizational upgrade and localization transition, and will temporarily slow the pace of store openings and marketing.This is also the main reason the company proactively trimmed its 2026 growth target.
Taking guidance of no less than 20% growth and the stronger-than-expected domestic Q1, we model a mid-to-high case of +23%, implying full-year net profit of ~RMB 16bn (c. 12x P/E).The market appears to price Pop Mart as a cyclical consumer name 'highly dependent on a single IP, with growth decelerating and margins peaking'.In our view, its core competitive moat remains intact, and the current levels underestimate the platform value.
