0813 ｜Key Watch by Dolphin Research:

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. US Jul CPI slowed to +3.4% YoY (prev. 3.5%), with core CPI at +2.5% YoY (prev. 2.6%), and all MoM prints in line with consensus. Housing remained the primary inflation driver. Disinflation was modest, trimming the market-implied odds of a Sep hike and pulling UST yields lower. However, core inflation is still well above the 2% target, leaving the Fed’s hawkish bias intact, while short-term valuation pressure on growth stocks eased at the margin.

2. MSCI announced the Aug 2026 quarterly index review: MSCI China will add 31 A-shares and 2 HK stocks, and remove 25 A-shares and 7 HK stocks, with AI and semis making up most of the additions. The changes take effect at the close on Aug 31. The index mix tilts further toward hard tech and AI, with inclusions set to receive passive inflows. Deletions may face passive selling pressure and near-term price headwinds, while mid-to-long-term performance remains a function of fundamentals and liquidity.

3. Late on Aug 12, DeepSeek quietly launched the V4 Pro API without advance notice, featuring 1M context and much stronger Agent capabilities, benchmarking top overseas models, alongside a previously flagged API price hike now in effect. Domestic LLMs continue to close the gap with global leaders, and the stealth roll-out underscores intensifying competition. With API price hikes, the industry is shifting from low-price competition to a balance between compute costs and monetization, which favors vendors with ample compute capacity.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$BIDU-W(09888.HK)

BIDU Smart Cloud launched an OPC support program, committing 200 mn in compute and traffic resources to back AI Agent startups, and opened a Chengdu ecosystem base to strengthen developer support. BIDU is reinforcing cloud-side AI moats and using Agent toolchains to attract developers, aiming to drive Smart Cloud revenue. Near term, higher 投入 lifts costs, while over time a larger developer ecosystem can broaden monetization channels.

2.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

GOOGL unveiled the full Pixel 11 lineup with a $100 price increase, cutting Pro RAM to 12GB from 16GB and only expanding base-model storage, using spec cuts to offset memory chip inflation. Rising upstream memory costs are passing through the chain, and Google is protecting pricing via downgrades, compressing hardware margins. Gemini is deeply integrated across the lineup, making AI features the key differentiator and helping cushion hardware GPM pressure.

3.$Apple(AAPL.US)

According to foreign media, AAPL is negotiating multi-year licensing deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars, with pay-per-use terms, to source licensed content for training and real-time Q&A in the next-gen AI Siri. Big Tech is formalizing a paid AI copyright model, ending the industry practice of free content scraping and benefiting content IP owners. AAPL is committing meaningful spend to enhance Siri’s information capabilities, addressing content gaps in its AI ecosystem.

4.$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Musk’s SpaceXAI released the new Grok 4.6 model, enhancing long-horizon agents, coding, and vision vs. 4.5. On multiple benchmarks it matches GPT-5.6, surpasses Claude Fable 5 on some metrics, prices its API at roughly half of top peers, and goes live on Cursor and the Grok Build platform for paid-user testing. Grok’s capabilities place it in the global first tier, and an aggressive pricing strategy should quickly capture developers, filling gaps in the AI agent race. This could lift SpaceX and X platform valuations in the near term.

5. Earnings & Calls on Radar

Tencent: 'Tencent: Is AI Spend Going Full-Throttle? One Last Push to ‘Rejuvenation’' and 'Tencent (Trans): Heavy Near-Term Spend Is Not Sustainable Over the Next Two Years Despite Optionality'.

JD, Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl, and China Mobile reported results.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Life Sciences Tools & Services, Commercial Printing, Biotechnology.

HK: Transaction & Payment Services, System Software, Storage Hardware & Peripherals.

US: Telecom Services, Communications Equipment, Heavy Electrical Equipment.

🐬 Watch for Tomorrow

1) Applied Materials reports earnings.

2) US Jul retail sales MoM, US Aug 1-yr inflation expectations (prelim), US Jun business inventories MoM.

Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure