0615 ｜Dolphin Research Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. The US and Iran both announced a ceasefire MoU, with Trump authorizing 'free passage' through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade, and the two sides set to sign in Switzerland on Jun 19.A 60‑day follow-on talks window will cover the Iran nuclear file and sanctions. The headline eases Mideast risk in the near term, compressing crude's geopolitical premium and benefiting energy and shipping, but deep disagreements on the nuclear issue remain and the setup is fragile, making negotiation progress the key watch.

🐬 Single Names

1.$Z.AI(02513.HK)

After Anthropic models were hit by US export controls, Zhipu announced full opening of GLM‑5.2, with an API next week and open-sourcing under the MIT license.The model shows strong long‑context and coding capability, driving a sharp rally in the shares. Domestic models are seeing a substitution window, and the open‑source approach lowers enterprise deployment costs, helping Zhipu expand government and enterprise clients; near term, the move looks sentiment‑driven with risk of profit‑taking, while mid‑to‑long term execution hinges on commercialization.

2.$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Media reported Ant is conducting closed tests of an AI version of Alipay (internal name 'Abao'), rebuilding interaction logic and enabling voice/text commands to complete services, while Ant declined to comment and its AI payments have already scaled in commercial use.This is a major step for a super‑app to pivot toward AI agents and could lift user engagement. However, the revamp must align with user habits and will face challenges in risk control and data security.

🐬 Top Gainers

A‑shares: copper, electronic components, and hardware & equipment distributors.

HK: system software, oil & gas storage and transportation, and electronic components.

US: telecom services, drug retailers, and tires & rubber.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1. China May retail sales (YoY) and above‑scale industrial value‑added (YoY).

2. US May import price index (MoM).

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