0820 ｜Dolphin Focus:

🐬 Macro / Industry

1. U.S. Treasury data show total public debt outstanding hit $40.05 tn as of Tue close, the first time above the $40 tn mark. Persistent debt expansion implies structurally higher UST supply, and together with elevated long-end yields, further weighs on global risk-asset valuations. Markets will keep fretting over fiscal sustainability, pushing up term premium and favoring safe havens like gold. Growth-stock multiples face pressure; watch upcoming UST supply calendars and shifts in foreign long-only demand.

2. The Fed's Jul FOMC minutes indicated rising concern over sticky inflation, with several participants supportive of further hikes. The hawkish tilt reduces odds of rate cuts this year, keeping UST yields biased higher and the USD with near-term momentum. Global risk appetite may compress further, constraining growth valuations in HK/ A-share markets. Continue to track CPI and labor data to gauge the Fed's policy path.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)

Minimax launched MiniMax Design, a multimodal creation Agent studio, advancing commercialization on its self-developed H3 model. Targeting multimodal content workflows, it fills out enterprise-facing tools and extends from base-model R&D to the application layer, broadening revenue streams and monetizing the H3 series. Competition in China's multimodal Agent track is intensifying. Whether the product can build defensible differentiation and drive scaled paid conversion still needs order data validation.

2.$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

MRVL said it is expanding its partnership with GOOGL and granted warrants allowing GOOGL to purchase up to $12.2 bn of MRVL shares. The deeper tie-up highlights how Alphabet's compute build-out is driving upstream chip procurement, likely lifting MRVL's LT order expectations, while equity linkage further anchors the supply-chain relationship. Such sizable warrants signal Alphabet's deeper push into comms chips, potentially reshaping industry partnerships. Watch subsequent shipment scale and the pace of earnings uplift.

3.$JD.com(JD.US)

JD unveiled a new robotics strategy, planning to invest tens of billions of RMB by 2028 to support hundreds of brands. Leveraging its logistics and supply-chain scenarios, JD is doubling down on robotics with an industrial focus, distinct from consumer humanoid paths, which helps close the loop on use cases. Such investment may catalyze demand for upstream components over time, but high R&D intensity and long payback cycles will pressure near-term margins. Commercial profitability remains to be seen.

4.$Uber Tech(UBER.US)

UBER, together with Verne and Pony.ai, launched autonomous ride-hailing in Zagreb, Croatia, its first in Europe. This marks a key breakthrough for Pony.ai's AV tech in European mobility scenarios and expands UBER's Robotaxi supply in the region. However, strict regulation and higher operating costs in Europe make scale-up challenging. Monitor fleet expansion and AV safety operations data.

5.$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)

SK hynix reached a preliminary wage deal with labor, agreeing to a 6.3% base pay raise and shifting 60% of bonuses to stock. The agreement removes strike risk, stabilizing operations and safeguarding deliveries of core memory like HBM. Issuing equity-linked bonuses aligns LT employee incentives and reduces current cash outflows, supporting cash flow. Higher wages lift labor costs and may slightly compress margins.

6.$Tesla(TSLA.US)

TSLA integrated the Doubao LLM into its in-car system to power AI-driven cabin interactions and voice assistance. This is a notable localization step pairing a leading domestic LLM with a global OEM, enhancing Tesla's in-market cockpit experience and expanding Doubao's automotive footprint. That said, the cooperation is application-layer focused and does not touch core autonomous-driving models. The incremental biz impact remains to be seen.

7. Dolphin Research: Earnings and Calls

Kuaishou: 'A 'fully ripe' Kuaishou pins village hopes on Kelin', 'Kuaishou (Trans): Core biz faces more pressure in 2H; full-year to stay FCF positive'

Alibaba, Walmart, Atour, and Pop Mart reported earnings.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-share: consumer retailers, gold, biotech;

HK: residential construction, leisure facilities like stadiums, gold;

U.S.: silver, precious metals & minerals, gold.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1) BEKE, GoerTek, and China Duty Free will report earnings.

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure