Morning Trend | SDHG continues to plunge, can the real estate chain make a comeback?
SDHG (412.HK) has recently experienced a significant drop, with daily death cross signals strengthening, and the overall atmosphere in the real estate chain becoming increasingly bleak. The technical indicators show weak bullish momentum, with short positions continuing to be released. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are consistently trending downward, and the MACD is clearly weakening. Long bearish candlestick patterns frequently appear, highlighting a significant outflow of funds.
Fundamentally, the sentiment in the real estate industry chain is extremely low, constrained by multiple factors such as market deleveraging, tightening financing policies, and declining consumer expectations, putting short-term pressure on SDHG's performance. The policy stimulus for the real estate sector has not met market expectations, leading to continued withdrawal by major institutions and even speculative funds, resulting in low trading volumes and increased risks of a phase-specific sell-off.
From a funding perspective, the sector has attempted to rebound multiple times recently, but the intensity has been limited, and the willingness of major players to engage in speculation is insufficient. SDHG, as a representative stock in the chain, has been further dragged down by the sector's beta. The technical indicators have repeatedly tested previous lows without stabilizing. Unless there are external positive surprises, such as relaxation on the land supply side or rapid easing of credit, a phase rebound is unlikely to sustain.
In terms of strategy, the difficulty for investors has increased, and it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach. If it continues to decline and breaks previous lows, it is recommended to cut losses and exit. If there is a volume-driven rebound that surpasses key short-term moving averages, there may be expectations for a rebound and correction. It is not advisable to heavily speculate on reversals in the real estate chain in the short term unless there is timely policy support, as risks remain significant.
Overall, the judgment is that after the drop, SDHG's short-term sentiment is bearish, and both technical and fundamental factors are unfavorable for strengthening. The real estate chain will need favorable catalysts and increased market activity to stage a comeback, and in the short term, it is advisable to closely monitor fund movements for flexible operations
Technical Forecast·
