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Great Wall Motor's Sales Rise 12%, Output Climbs 9% in January
Bank of China International downgraded Great Wall Motor's rating to "Sell," with a target price reduced to 9.5 yuan. The report pointed out that Great Wall Motor's revenue is expected to grow by 13% to 69.2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025, but net profit is expected to plummet by 44%, mainly due to seasonal bonuses, inefficiencies in the direct sales model, and tax policy impacts. The sales target for 2026 requires over 45% growth, facing competitive pressure and weak market demand, with significant profit risks. Great Wall is lagging behind its peers in the transition to new energy, with a high valuation, and the forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 is 12.5 times
Citi has lowered the target price for Great Wall Motor to 15 yuan, maintaining a "outperform" rating. Great Wall Motor's preliminary performance for 2025 shows a revenue growth of 10%, but a net profit decline of 22%. It is expected that domestic sales in 2026 will be affected by weakened domestic demand, with ongoing impacts from the Russian market. The net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down by 19% and 3%, respectively
Citi has placed Great Wall Motor on a 30-day watch for stock price decline catalysts, with a target price of 18.9 yuan. It is expected that by the end of 2025, traditional fuel vehicle inventories will be at a high level, and a destocking cycle will occur in the first quarter, with retail sales expected to decline by 26%. Great Wall Motor's wholesale sales in February slightly decreased, facing pressure from rising raw material costs and increased R&D expenses. The export volume in January was 40,300 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 30%. The firm has given Great Wall Motor a "Buy" rating
GWM sold 90,312 vehicles in January, marking an 11.59% year-on-year increase, despite a 27.18% decline from December. Overseas sales surged by 43.77% to 40,278 units. Haval led sales with 50,513 units, a 4.03% increase year-on-year. However, new energy vehicle sales fell by 19.02% year-on-year. GWM anticipates a 21.71% drop in net income for 2025, projecting RMB 9.91 billion. Additionally, GWM is planning to establish a European plant with a target capacity of 300,000 cars by 2029.
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