ACM Research

Goldman Sachs: WFE

Overall Market Growth

> Significant Upward Revisions: Goldman Sachs has revised its total WFE forecasts upward, projecting $150B in 2026 (a 6% increase over old estimates) scaling up significantly to $281B by 2028 (+35% vs. old estimates).

> Strong Year-over-Year (YoY) Momentum: Total WFE year-over-year growth is expected to peak at +45% in 2027, following a robust +36% in 2026.

Segment Breakdown (DRAM & Foundry/Logic Lead)

> Foundry/Logic Drive: Foundry and Logic segments account for the largest share, with 2026 spending estimated at $92B (+9% revision) growing rapidly to $162B by 2028.

> DRAM Surge: DRAM is forecasted for explosive growth, moving from $48B in 2026 to $97B by 2028, reflecting persistent high demand with YoY growth rates staying above 35%.

> NAND Lagging: In contrast, NAND is experiencing downward near-term revisions (-4% to -$13% compared to older estimates), though it is still expected to recover toward $22B by 2028.

Regional Trends (China vs. Ex-China)

> Sustained China Demand: China continues to command a robust appetite for WFE investments, expected to contribute $44.3B (29% of total WFE) in 2026 and peaking around $60.7B by 2028.

> Ex-China Expansion: The rest of the world (Ex-China) accounts for the lion's share of spending, projected to accelerate from $106.0B in 2026 up to $220.2B (78% of the market) by 2028.

(Cred @knockouttrader)

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GF Securities is forecasting global WFE to reach $236 billion in 2027 and then $295 billion in 2028.

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