Blackstone

BX

----

2026-W372026-09-07

BX.US Weekly Report · 2026-W37

Blackstone declined 5.6% this week, closing at $128.51. Despite price pressure, valuations have compressed to historic lows (P/E in 4th percentile over one year), while institutions updated target price to $144.38 on September 9—implying 12% upside. Concurrently, institutional capital flows remain net positive, earnings growth remained strong (Q2 +57% YoY), though asset disposals signal portfolio rebalancing. The divergence between valuation compression and equity weakness may precede a reversal, though risks remain around whether underlying industry fundamentals are pressured.

Price Action

The week opened at $136.15 (prior Friday close) and closed at $128.51, a decline of 5.61%. Intra-week volatility remained elevated, with a low of $125.03 on Wednesday and recovery to $130.85 on Thursday. Weekly range (high-low) was 4.65%, suggesting early signs of bounce-back after capitulation.

Trading volume averaged approximately 3.99 million shares daily for the week, representing a ~20% reduction versus the 60-day median of ~5 million shares. Declining volume during a rebound typically weakens conviction in trend reversal and warrants confirmation via increased participation.

The candlestick pattern shows early “V-shaped” formation: Wednesday’s sharp selloff to $125.03 was followed by Thursday’s direct rebound to $128.51 with a small bullish candle—momentum shifted but did not yet recapture prior support.

Valuation & Earnings

Current P/E stands at 29.21x. Per valuation data, this stock trades at the 4.4th percentile on P/E over the past year—an extreme low (meaning 95%+ of trading days in the past year were more expensive). P/B is 11.4x, mid-range for the asset management sector.

Consensus EPS forecast for 2026 is $6.42. Q2 reported EPS of $1.5367, marking +57.3% YoY growth. TTM EPS is $4.399. Implied EPS from current price ($128.51 / 29.21) is approximately $4.40, suggesting the market has priced in material deceleration in the back half.

Q2 earnings detail:

Revenue $4.887B, +28.6% YoY, +43% sequential
Net income $1.229B, +60.8% YoY, +88% sequential
EPS $1.5367, versus Q1’s $0.8273, +85.6% sequential

Profit growth outpaced revenue growth, reflecting margin expansion and cost discipline. Yet equities sold off—indicating market skepticism over earnings sustainability.

Capital Flows

Latest capital flow snapshot (Sept 11, 8:00 PM): large institutional net inflow of 378.63, medium institutional net outflow of 160.38, retail net outflow of 145.77. Large institutions accumulate while retail distributes—a classic divergence pattern that often appears during selloffs and may signal institutional bottom-fishing.

Institutional Ratings

As of September 9, rating distribution:

Strong Buy: 9
Buy: 3
Hold: 11
Reduce: 3
Total: 23

Bullish consensus is clear: 52% in Strong Buy/Buy categories, 48% Hold, zero Sell ratings. Current consensus price target is $144.38, representing 12.3% upside vs. current $128.51. Ratings were updated within 3 days, reflecting fresh consensus.

Caveat: ratings often lag price moves; the sell-off may have begun before institutions fully downgraded targets.

Weekly Headlines

This week’s narrative centered on asset dispositions and portfolio rebalancing:

Blackstone Portfolio Exits & Repositioning—Blackstone exited Bumble (dating app) after nearly 2x returns, and is exploring the sale of ZO Skin Health. These disposals suggest the firm is actively pruning lower-conviction positions or de-risking to optimize fund returns.

Real Estate Leadership Transition—Head of real estate Meghji departed before one year tenure; David Levine and Giovanni Cutaia appointed co-heads. Real estate remains critical to Blackstone’s platform; the shuffle may foreshadow strategic shifts in that segment.

Infrastructure M&A & AI Datacenter Push—Enbridge transaction for Pony Express crude pipeline nears close (~$2B). Google-Blackstone Project Braid datacenter partnership faces site selection delays but advances. Blackstone acquired Flow Control Holdings (datacenter liquid cooling components). These moves underscore aggressive positioning in AI infrastructure and alternatives.

Key news (ranked by relevance):

Summary

This week exhibits a textbook “priced-for-pain” setup: near-term weakness (-5.6%), yet valuation and fundamentals diverge sharply. P/E at near-record low, institutional ratings just refreshed to Buy, institutional capital inflow—all point toward capitulation low. However, risks remain:

Volume lacks conviction—declining volume during bounce raises questions on reversal credibility; need to see increased turnover
Asset management sector volatility—Blackstone’s earnings and AUM are highly cyclical; macro headwinds could pressure growth assumptions
Disposition signals mixed message—exiting Bumble, exploring ZO Skin Health sale, real estate reshuffling, Project Braid delays may reflect proactive portfolio rebalancing rather than market-driven panic

Current setup suggests valuation has compressed into attractive territory with institutional interest awakening. However, muted volume and macro uncertainty warrant patience for confirmation. Monitor next week for either volume-backed bounce or continued downside—either outcome will provide clarity on true bottom formation.