Blackstone

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) rose about 7.6% on Monday to roughly $171.09 after Elon Musk confirmed that discussions with TSMC are real, though still in the early stages. The talks follow reports that TSMC is exploring a role in Terafab, the Texas chip venture tied to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, which could eventually invest $119B to manufacture chips for products including Optimus, Cybercab, and future AI infrastructure. The prospect of TSMC participating was viewed as strengthening SpaceX’s long-term AI chip supply strategy and potentially reducing Intel’s future role in the project, helping send Intel shares lower while TSMC reached a new all-time high. A reiterated Morgan Stanley Overweight rating and $300 price target provided additional support for the stock.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) and Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) are reportedly reducing internal use of Anthropic’s Claude as they increasingly shift employees toward their own AI tools, according to The Information. Microsoft had been on pace to spend at least $1B annually on internal Claude usage earlier this year but has since reduced that level by more than one-third. At Meta, the number of Claude Code users has reportedly fallen to about 30,000 from roughly 60,000 earlier this year, while MetaCode now has more than 30,000 users and Muse Code has surpassed 6,000. Despite the shift, Meta still spent more than $105M on Claude Code over a recent 28-day period.

3. JPMorgan expects the memory market $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) to remain supply-constrained through at least 2028, with customer order discussions already extending as far out as 2031. The firm forecasts HBM bit demand to grow 63%, non-HBM server DRAM demand to increase 37%, and CY2027 HBM blended ASPs to rise 54% year over year. JPM also believes Micron’s expectation of having more than 35% of revenue covered by long-term supply agreements through 2030 may prove conservative, noting that several Asian memory manufacturers already have 50%+ of their capacity secured under similar long-term agreements.

4. RBC Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating on Zeta $Zeta Global(ZETA.US) and raised its price target to $40 from $31, implying roughly 22.6% upside. Analyst Matt Swanson said recent investor meetings highlighted growing momentum around strategic partnerships and adoption of Athena, while emphasizing that RBC does not believe these opportunities are materially reflected in either current guidance or the company’s 2030 outlook. RBC also argued that Zeta has increasingly differentiated itself from traditional ad-tech peers and is now being valued more like a software company. The latest increase marks RBC’s third price target raise on Zeta this calendar year.

5. Ondas $Ondas(ONDS.US) secured a $56M order for Electronic Safe & Arm Devices (ESADs) supporting a European loitering munition program. The contract will be fulfilled through Ondas' recently acquired Bron Technologies and GATE Technologies businesses. ESADs manage a munition’s safety, arming, and initiation functions, with production set to move forward using technology that has already been qualified for deployment. The award further expands Ondas’ presence in the growing European defense and precision munitions market.

6. Bank of America, Citi, and Morgan Stanley have begun syndicating a $60B debt package tied to Anthropic’s lease of Google-designed TPUs supplied through Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US), making it the largest chip-financing deal to date. The package includes $42B of senior secured debt backed by Broadcom and $18B of junior debt without Broadcom guarantees, with Blackstone already committing roughly $9B to the junior tranche. The financing is expected to fund Anthropic’s 2027 chip orders, with Broadcom’s support helping reduce borrowing costs and potentially allowing the senior debt to be refinanced into the investment-grade market. The deal centers on Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) TPUs, developed with Broadcom as an alternative to NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) GPUs for large-scale AI workloads, while Broadcom filings also indicate Anthropic could issue up to $42B of convertible notes to Broadcom to cover future lease payments.

7. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories fell another 767,000 barrels last week to 283M barrels, the lowest level since 1982. The decline marks the 28th consecutive weekly drawdown, leaving the SPR down nearly 133M barrels from its recent peak. As a result, America's emergency crude oil reserves continue to sit near their lowest levels in more than four decades, underscoring the limited strategic buffer available despite elevated geopolitical risks.

8. The Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points in September to 81.9, its lowest level since April 2014, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline and an 11.2-point drop over that period. The Present Situation Index declined 7.9 points to 109.3, its weakest reading since February 2021, while the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its lowest since April 2025 and a third straight monthly decline. Confidence has weakened across all age groups and nearly all income brackets over the past six months. Consumers increasingly cited high prices, the cost of goods and services, and oil and gasoline prices as the primary factors weighing on the economic outlook.

9. Brazilian markets rallied after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, with investors reacting positively to the prospect of a more market-friendly policy agenda ahead of the October 25 runoff. Brazilian assets including Nu Holdings $NU Holdings(NU.US), the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF $EWZ, and other Brazil-exposed equities such as MercadoLibre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US) outperformed following the result. The market reaction reflected optimism around potential fiscal and economic policy changes, though the election remains undecided with a runoff still to come.

10. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 4.0M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.2M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 874K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 872K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 844K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 835K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 790K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 502K contracts.

11. OpenAI is reportedly in talks with UAE investment funds, including MGX, and BlackRock $BlackRock(BLK.US) to anchor a new $30B+ funding round at a valuation of roughly $1.4T, according to Bloomberg. UAE investors have discussed contributing as much as $10B collectively, while existing backers Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz are also considering additional investments, alongside discussions with the University of California endowment. Rather than negotiating with a lead investor, OpenAI is reportedly presenting investors with a fixed ~$1.4T pre-money valuation. The fundraising comes as OpenAI continues to delay an IPO until at least 2027 while raising unprecedented amounts of capital to fund AI model development and large-scale infrastructure expansion.

12. Melius upgraded Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) to Buy with a $665 price target, arguing that growing concerns around AI safety are actually strengthening Microsoft's competitive position. The firm said enterprises are increasingly choosing to spend on a secure AI wrapper that can route models to the right tasks, manage AI agents, and provide governance rather than relying directly on frontier AI labs. Melius believes Satya Nadella and Microsoft's leadership are becoming the "adults in charge" for AI security and governance, and now expects Azure revenue growth to accelerate to above 50% by F4Q27.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

The dominoes are falling

Breaking: Blackstone just restricted withdrawals from its $77 billion private credit fund for the second consecutive quarter

They have only returned 50% of investors request

Companies capping withdrawals:

• Blackstone

• Blue Owl Capital

• Apollo Management

• Ares Management

• BlackRock

• Starwood Capital

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: Databricks Raises $5 Billion at $190 Billion Valuation as AI Revenue Surges

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗸𝘀 raises $𝟱 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 at a $𝟭𝟵𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 post-money valuation.

➤ Revenue run rate surpassed $𝟳 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, growing more than 𝟴𝟬% year-over-year.

➤ 𝗖𝗼𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗲 led the financing alongside Blackstone, MGX and T. Rowe Price.

➤ 𝗦𝗶𝘅𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 joined the round as a new investor.

➤ 𝗟𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 surpassed a $𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 revenue run rate.

➤ Funding targets 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘆, Lakebase and Genie expansion.

➤ 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗔𝗜 𝗚𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘆 helps enterprises route models and control token spending.

➤ CEO 𝗔𝗹𝗶 𝗚𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀𝗶 argues AGI has arrived under pre-2022 definitions.

➤ Ghodsi identifies 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 as a major barrier to AI autonomy.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ The $𝟭𝟵𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 valuation signals strong investor confidence in enterprise AI.

➤ Rapid revenue growth suggests enterprises continue expanding 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 spending.

➤ Databricks is positioning itself as a governance layer across 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶-𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 AI ecosystems.

➤ Enterprise AI returns remain critical to sustaining long-term spending and valuations.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:

𝗔𝗹𝗶 𝗚𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀𝗶, Cofounder and CEO of Databricks:

"There's a huge amount of interest in some of our AI technologies, especially since the token-maxing phenomenon has gone crazy," Ghodsi told me in an exclusive interview. "Unity AI Gateway lets you route all of your tokens through one system and set budgets for different groups or individuals. That gives companies a way to control their token spending and avoid simply maxing out tokens. We call it switching from token maxing to value maxing."

𝗔𝗹𝗶 𝗚𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀𝗶, Cofounder and CEO of Databricks:

"Instead of being locked into a single harness, they can move between them, control how those agents operate and manage the costs across them," Ghodsi says. "This is one of our three major bets."

𝗢𝘄𝗲𝗻 𝗟𝗮𝘂, Equity Analyst at Clear Street:

"ARR growing at 50%+ and gross margin stabilizing at 70%+ over the next few years should justify the valuation," says Owen Lau, equity analyst at Clear Street. "The ROI debate at the application layer is still not settled. If the enterprises can't monetize these AI tools or increase productivity, they will likely cut back these data and AI investments."

𝗔𝗹𝗶 𝗚𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀𝗶, Cofounder and CEO of Databricks:

"If that is your definition, then of course it is not here," he says. "It is also unclear whether what the industry is currently building will ever become that."

𝗔𝗹𝗶 𝗚𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀𝗶, Cofounder and CEO of Databricks:

"the world remains largely unchanged, except that token spending is rising. There is a major gap between the intelligence AI possesses and the impact it is having."

BofA: Nvidia's $500B Financing

> NVDA Underwrites Value, Not Debt: NVDA has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with six top financiers (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR) to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital via independent platforms. The financial burden sits with the consortium rather than NVDA's balance sheet.

> GPUs as an Investable Asset Class: With $500 billion of capital treating compute as an investable asset class, residual values must hold. NVDA supplies fungible and transferable compute across operators, and CUDA extends its useful life to keep resell/rental rates high and depreciation curves benign.

> Extending the AI Buildout Runway: Funding—rather than demand—has been the primary bottleneck. A $500 billion pool allows non-investment-grade buyers (such as labs, neoclouds, and sovereigns) to secure hardware at attractive rates, de-risking offtake and supporting long-term AI systems Total Addressable Market (TAM) paths.

> Key Debates and Risks Monitored: Notable cautions remain, including the fact that MOUs are not deployed capital (requiring real end-customers paying real money), potential power and regulatory pushback, input-cost inflation, and the opacity/complexity that new financing structures might introduce to AI buildouts.

FINANCIAL TIMES:

- Nvidia is partnering with Apollo, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs and others on a massive $500B AI Financing Deal.

- Deal could be announced as soon as today

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Goldman Sachs(GS.US) $Apollo Global(APO.US) $Blackstone(BX.US)

looks like some more money is getting ready to help build out these datacenters

Source: amit