Currencyshares JPY Trust

The U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ended poorly, with the 20-year Treasury yield breaking 5% and the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5%, advancing to 4.6%. The outcome aligns with Dolphin Research's analysis in the weekly strategy report: once the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5% and continues to rise, U.S. stocks follow with a correction. Regarding the surge in Treasury yields, Dolphin Research also noted in the report that while Trump claims to be a fiscal hawk, his tax cuts ultimately result in significant deficit policies.This means the deficit issues from the pandemic-era stimulus remain unresolved, and the federal government is adding more debt. The lack of market confidence naturally led to lower auction prices for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, strange developments are occurring with Japanese bonds: Japan was the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, but now Japan and the U.S. are negotiating, with the U.S. pushing for yen appreciation. From a trading perspective, yen appreciation against the dollar would expose Japanese private institutions holding U.S. Treasuries to exchange rate risks. Japanese insurers, similar to those in Taiwan, previously did not hedge against currency risks during the dual rise of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Thus, the optimal move during yen appreciation is to repatriate funds: sell U.S. Treasuries and buy Japanese bonds.However, the latest news indicates the negotiations failed, meaning trades based on expected agreements must now be unwound—buying U.S. Treasuries and selling yen. The result is a yen correction and rising Japanese bond yields.$VG Long-Term(BLV.US), $ProShares Shrt QQQ(PSQ.US), $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US), $Currencyshares JPY Trust(FXY.US), $Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF(UDN.US)Additional note: Overseas creditors hold about 30% of U.S. Treasuries, with over 15% held by foreign private institutions rather than official entities. Japanese private institutions hold an even larger share, giving them greater pricing power in Treasury transactions than official entities.<figure class="image"></figure>The chart shows Japan was indeed selling U.S. Treasuries in April, but by the week of May 17, it had shifted to net buying. In other words, without Japanese buyers, Treasury yields might have risen even higher. If Japan and the U.S. eventually reach a trade agreement and the yen appreciates, Japanese buyers may further sell U.S. Treasuries.<figure class="image"></figure> The weakening trend of the dollar is certain in this process. If the U.S. continues large-scale Treasury financing under these conditions, it’s no surprise that investors are betting on the 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 5%.Reference: &#34;Big but Ugly&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34;: Will U.S. Stocks Suffer Again Due to Treasuries? https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29808412

“大而美”=“大赤字”，美股又要被美债连累了？ - LongPort

Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF

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US Dollar to Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Dropped to 158.88

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The Monday open indicative forex prices for 16 March 2026 indicate limited changes from late Friday, with a slight decline in the USD. Weekend markets lack wholesale participation, and significant trading activity is expected as major markets open. Further relevant news will be provided soon.

- The article discusses the lack of wholesale participation in the "weekend market" until real trading begins in the foreign exchange market.  
- It notes that wholesale liquidity will become increasingly significant as major markets open in the subsequent hours.  
- Currently, there has been little change since last Friday night, with the US dollar experiencing a slight decline.

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Monday open indicative forex prices, 16 March 2026

Japan and South Korea expressed concerns over the rapid depreciation of their currencies, the yen and won, during their annual meeting in Tokyo. They are prepared to act against excessive foreign-exchange volatility, particularly as the US dollar strengthens due to rising crude prices and geopolitical tensions. The yen has reached a 20-month low, nearing 160 yen to 1 US dollar, while the won has breached 1,500 won to 1 US dollar for the first time since 2009. Both countries are closely monitoring the situation and are ready to respond to protect their economies.

Taipei Times

ISHRS MSCI S Korea Capped

Japan, South Korea  share volatile currency concerns

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2525

1346

The finance ministers of Japan and South Korea expressed concerns over the excessive depreciation of their respective currencies and confirmed that measures will be taken to address market volatility. Both countries emphasized the importance of regional financial security and bilateral cooperation, reiterating their commitment to closely monitor the foreign exchange market to prevent disorderly fluctuations in exchange rates. The parties discussed the impact of the situation in the Middle East on financial markets and explored the possibility of promoting investment. The Japanese yen reached a 20-month low against the US dollar, while the South Korean won fell below the psychological barrier of 1500 won per US dollar. The Japanese finance minister stated that the government is ready to take necessary measures to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations at any time

- South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol and Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki expressed concerns over excessive currency depreciation after their recent meeting.  
- They highlighted the importance of regional financial safety nets and bilateral cooperation in response to significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.  
- Both parties agreed to remain vigilant and flexible in their policy actions to support economic growth and maintain financial stability amid geopolitical risks.

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Asset Management One Co., Ltd.

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives Group

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

The finance ministers of Japan and South Korea are concerned about excessive currency depreciation and are taking appropriate measures to prevent disorderly fluctuations

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Nikkei 225 reached a record high of over 59,000, driven by AI optimism and banking sector gains, while European shares remained cautious near record levels. The Japanese yen recovered slightly, and gold prices increased due to safe-haven demand. The market is now focused on geopolitical risks and upcoming US jobless claims data. In Europe, mixed performances were noted, with Schneider Electric gaining 3% and Syensqo dropping 22.6%. The US dollar remained stable amid political uncertainties, while the yuan surged to a three-year high.

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Markets Today: Nikkei clears 59000, Gold holds high ground, FTSE 100 prints fresh highs. US jobless claims up next

HEWJ

The finance ministers of Japan and South Korea have pledged to take measures to defend their currencies, which have depreciated against the U.S. dollar. Following their meeting in Tokyo, they emphasized the need for vigilance and agility in policy decisions to support economic growth and financial stability. The ministers expressed concerns over the rapid decline of the Korean won and Japanese yen, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. They committed to monitoring foreign exchange markets and addressing excessive volatility in exchange rates.

businessinsider

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iShares Cur H MSCI Japan

Japan, South Korea vow to fight forex volatility

S.Korea, Japan finmins affirm that they will closely monitor FX markets, take appropriate measures on excessive volatility and disorderly movements -S.Korea ministry

marketscreener

S.Korea, Japan finmins affirm that they will closely monitor FX markets, take appropriate measures on excessive volatility and disorderly movements -S.Korea ministry

S.Korea, Japan finance ministers express deep concern about rapid currency depreciation in both countries - S.Korea ministry

S.Korea, Japan finance ministers express deep concern about rapid currency depreciation in both countries - S.Korea ministry

SCHO

GOVT

The USD/JPY outlook is pressured by rising US yields and escalating energy prices due to the Iran conflict. The yen is vulnerable as Japan relies heavily on energy imports, leading to a currency slide. The correlation between USD/JPY and US Treasury yields has strengthened, indicating interest rate differentials are driving the currency's movement. The Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting may reveal shifts in policy sentiment, with a potential tightening expected in April. However, intervention risks are rising as authorities monitor excessive currency fluctuations.

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USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Rally pressures Japan as yields surge ahead of Fed, BoJ

The US dollar is strong, with the renminbi testing 6.95 and the yen weak. The US dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark, with the offshore renminbi once reported at 6.8783 against 1 US dollar, and the yen against the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in 2024. Analysts expect the US dollar index to remain strong above 100 in the short term, with the yen hovering between 156 and 160. Currency exchange shops have seen yen exchange amounts reach 750 million, as rising oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns. The Japanese Finance Minister stated that necessary measures will be taken to address yen exchange rate fluctuations. The market predicts that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates ahead of schedule

The strong US dollar pushes the renminbi down to test 6.95, the yen weakens, and Hong Kong exchange shops exchange 750 million in a single day

The Middle East war has prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets, with the US dollar strengthening on Friday, marking its second consecutive week of gains. The US Dollar Index recently rose by 0.8% to 100.495. The dollar against the yen recently rose to 159.71. Every 100 yen exchanges for 4.90 Hong Kong dollars. The euro against the dollar fell to 1.142. The pound against the dollar fell to 1.322. The dollar against the Swiss franc rose to 0.791. The dollar against the Canadian dollar rose to 1.372. The Australian dollar against the US dollar fell to 0.698

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"Foreign Exchange" The US dollar rises above the 100 level, increasing for two consecutive weeks

Dollar hits strongest level against yen since July 2024; dollar/yen up 0.2% at 159.65

Dollar hits strongest level against yen since July 2024; dollar/yen up 0.2% at 159.65

Rising oil prices may pressure global financial markets by straining Japan's currency, impacting the yen carry trade and U.S. Treasury flows, warns Martin Pelletier of TriVest Wealth Counsel. He highlights Japan's vulnerability to these changes, suggesting significant implications for investors.

Japan’s energy import shock could ripple into yen carry trade and US Treasuries, Pelletier says

USDJPY at the Crossroads: Intervention Shadows, Policy Divergence, and the Battle for 159.2

Barchart Option

USDJPY at the Crossroads: Intervention Shadows, Policy Divergence, and the Battle for 159.2

The USD reached new highs against the EUR, JPY, and GBP but is experiencing corrective action ahead of key economic data releases. At 8:30 AM ET, PCE is projected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, with core PCE at 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Durable goods orders for January are expected to increase by 1.2%. The video discusses potential risks of disappointment for the major currency pairs as the dollar backs off from its highs.

The EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD each extended to new 2026 extremes but backed off

The yen is weakening despite rising interest rate expectations in Japan, as the country faces rising energy prices that drive inflation. This situation limits the Bank of Japan's ability to tighten monetary policy effectively. In contrast, the US dollar remains strong due to its higher interest rates and safe-haven status amid geopolitical tensions. The ongoing capital outflows from yen assets, driven by carry trades, further pressure the yen's value. As long as the interest rate differential persists, the yen is likely to continue depreciating in the short term.

TradingKey

Why Is the Yen, Amid a Wave of Interest Rate Hikes, Still Being Abandoned by the Market?