Dolphin Research

Since late 2022, when ChatGPT burst onto the scene, AI has unleashed wave after wave of semiconductor supercycle opportunities. From compute (GPUs) and storage to coordination and scheduling (CPUs), the buildout has already minted a string of $1tn market-cap companies.

0603 ｜Dolphin Research focus: 🐬 Stock 1, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) announced seven in-house, full-stack MAI models at the Jun 2 Microsoft Build developer conference, spanning reasoning, coding, and multimodal vision. The flagship reasoning model, MAI-Thinking-1, is positioned against Claude, while coding performance is on par with Anthropic's top-tier version.

Ride-hailing leader $DiDi(DIDIY.US) reported Q1 2026 results pre-market on Jun 2.

Didi 1Q26 First Take: headline results were weak, with adj. EBITA under RMB 200 mn amid heavy investment.However, vs. expectations the print was better — domestic profit release far exceeded forecasts, and Intl growth was strong while losses came in slightly lower than expected (still sizable in absolute terms).

Breakdown:

1) Domestic GTV rose 10% YoY, with growth easing QoQ but slightly above Bloomberg consensus; order growth showed a similar ~1ppt QoQ deceleration, indicating steady momentum.The standout was profit release, with domestic adj. EBITA near RMB 4 bn, well above the market's ~RMB 3.5 bn.Adj. EBITA margin was 4.6% on GTV, up 60bps YoY.

Domestic platform sales grew ~22% YoY, far outpacing GTV and revenue growth of ~10%.This implies a meaningful uplift in net take rate after driver revenue share and other direct costs, rising from 20.6% to 22.8%.

2) Intl was the highlight on growth, with GTV up 59% YoY; ex-FX, +49%, accelerating by over 10ppt QoQ.Orders rose 27% YoY, with only ~2ppt acceleration and well below GTV growth.Mix shifted toward higher-ticket food delivery, lifting GTV more than orders.

Beyond solid growth, Intl adj. EBITA loss was ~RMB 2.9 bn, still large but better than the market's ~RMB 3.1 bn loss estimate and Q4's RMB 3.4 bn.In other words, loss margin narrowed alongside strong growth.

3) Overall, domestic growth was steady while Intl growth was strong; domestic profit release expanded, and Intl losses narrowed.Company revenue maintained ~10% growth.Absolute profit was still under RMB 200 mn, but vs. the market's expected RMB 500 mn loss, this was a clear beat. $DiDi(DIDIY.US)

Full-stack AI bellwether $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) has seen some recent softness in its share price.

Over the past year, Google raised over $85bn via bond offerings across six markets. This new raise is the largest single round to date.

As for use of proceeds, management outlined a broad plan. The 80bn will mainly go to scaling AI infrastructure, concurrently buying call options to partially hedge future dilution from convertible preferreds, and covering taxes due when employee options vest...

0601 | Dolphin Research Watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) China’s NEV market May delivery data is out, with Leapmotor, Nio, and ZEEKR posting sharp MoM gains as production and sales sentiment improves. Li Auto and XPeng saw YoY declines in delivery volumes, while BYD’s monthly sales were steady. Performance among leading OEMs is clearly diverging.

Below are Dolphin Research's notes from the FY1Q26 earnings call for $MEITUAN(03690.HK). For our earnings take, please see 'Meituan: As AI draws the fire, finally room to breathe?'.

After the Hong Kong close on Jun 1, the last name in the 'Food Delivery Index' — $MEITUAN(03690.HK) — released its Q1 2026 results. Absolute performance remained weak, with revenue roughly flat and the group still in the red.

However, vs. market expectations the print was decent. The key highlight was that the actual loss in Core Local Commerce came in far below prior guidance, implying faster-than-expected loss reduction in the on-demand retail biz.

Specifically: 1) reporting scope tweak. Before dissecting the quarter, note Meituan made a slight adjustment to how it discloses sub-segment revenue; we flag this upfront.

Meituan 1Q26 First Take: Results were not strong in absolute terms, but beat expectations, driven by faster-than-expected loss narrowing in Core Local Commerce.

First, management made minor tweaks to reporting definitions and restated historical data (our charts still follow the old series, so there may be small gaps vs. the latest disclosure).

Implications include: a) it will be harder to parse the performance of to-home vs. in-store businesses from reported data, increasing reliance on color from small-group calls; b) carving out first-party retail allows better tracking of Xiaoxiang Supermarket's growth.

Total revenue was approx. RMB 91bn (+5% YoY), a slight acceleration vs. last quarter and broadly in line.

By segment, revenue for Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives was broadly in line with expectations.

Dolphin Research believes most of the beat came from the to-home (on-demand delivery) business.

Losses in New Initiatives were also smaller than expected, narrowing to ~RMB 2.1bn vs. RMB 4.65bn last quarter.

On costs and expenses, with revenue growth broadly in line and no clear acceleration, loss narrowing mainly reflects lower subsidies and related spending.

Overall, the to-home business is narrowing losses faster than expected.

This week, $PDD(PDD.US) posted disappointing results, sending the stock down nearly 15%.

The new L9 has launched and is now being delivered. Q2 GPM is expected to recover to ~10%.

Li Auto's 'distressed turnaround' still hasn't arrived

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Costco Wholesale(COST.US) FQ3 2026 earnings call. For our earnings take, see 'Inflation Resurges, Costco Still Resilient'.

Global discount retail leader — $Costco Wholesale(COST.US) — reported after-hours on May 29 its FY2026 Q3 results for the period ended May 10. Overall performance remained very resilient, broadly in line with market expectations.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of DELL FY27 Q1 earnings call. For our earnings analysis, see 'Dell: AI is surging, legacy is warming up, fully fired up!'.

1) Key takeaways for $Dell Tech(DELL.US). Shareholder returns: DELL returned $2.1bn to shareholders in Q1, repurchasing 11 mn shares at an Avg. price of $147 and paying a dividend of approx. $0.63 per share. The company reaffirmed its capital return framework, with buybacks to remain strong.

In after-hours trading on May 29 (Beijing time), DELL.N reported FY2027 Q1 results (quarter ended Apr 2026).

Costco F3Q26 First Take: results remained steady with no major surprises. As usual, the print is a clean read-through on US and global consumption trends. Specifically:

1) For F3Q26 (ended May 10), sales rose 11.6% YoY, the first double-digit growth since 2022. Companywide comps increased 9.8% vs 7.4% last quarter, a multi-year high.

That said, traffic grew just 2.4% vs 3.1% in the prior quarter, while Avg. ticket jumped 7.3% YoY. The strong sales were driven by higher fuel and goods inflation after Middle East tensions flared. Traffic, a better read on spending willingness, softened.

Ex fuel and FX, comps grew 6.6%. That was slightly below last quarter's 6.7%, underscoring softer underlying demand.

2) Membership fee revenue grew 10.7%, down from ~14% in the prior three quarters. Paid members increased by approx. 0.8 mn (vs 0.7 mn last quarter), and the North America renewal rate, after roughly a year of sequential declines, ticked up 10bps QoQ. Membership growth and renewals thus appear resilient despite merchandise inflation.

This fee-per-member uplift began in Q3 last year, creating a high base. Fee revenue growth should therefore continue to ease toward member growth of ~4–5%.

3) While inflation accelerated tickets and sales, it also pressured costs, as Costco typically absorbs inflation before passing it through to consumers. This dynamic weighed on margins.

Specifically, GPM fell 21bps YoY. Efficiency gains and lower HQ costs reduced the opex ratio by 20bps, limiting OPM compression to just 1bp. As a result, OPM was 28.2%, with OP up 11.3% YoY, slightly below revenue growth.

DELL 1QFY27 First Take: Results beat across the board, with revenue up $10.5bn QoQ and growth reaccelerating. The quarter’s upside was driven mainly by ISG (servers) shipments.

AI revenue reached $16.1bn, up $7.2bn QoQ and ahead of the raised consensus (~$15.6bn). New AI orders were $24.4bn vs. market expectations of $10–15bn, taking backlog to $51.3bn by quarter-end and laying the groundwork for sustained high growth.

Street expectations for AI servers had already moved up ahead of the print. The biggest surprise came from traditional servers, where revenue hit $8.5bn (+92% YoY), far above the ~$5bn the market expected and the primary source of the beat.

The market had assumed traditional servers would be steady with a mild uptick. Demand is now clearly inflecting higher.

Guidance was the real positive surprise: next-quarter revenue is guided to $44–45bn, well above the Street’s ~$37.6bn. The midpoint implies QoQ growth of $0.2–1.2bn. Based on the current ~$50bn backlog and order visibility, we estimate AI revenue could be $15.5bn+ next quarter, likely a modest QoQ dip as the business remains ‘supply constrained’.

Shares have rallied on rising expectations for DELL’s AI servers. The platform is transitioning from GB200 to GB300, directly lifting ASPs. DELL currently benefits from both volume and price tailwinds, alongside a recovery in traditional servers, with AI outperformance pushing valuation beyond its historical range.

Management raised the full-year guide to $165–169bn, up $17bn vs. the prior $138–142bn. This quarter alone exceeded the previous quarterly guide by roughly $10bn. We view the new FY outlook as conservative, leaving room for further upward revisions.

Overall, DELL’s AI business is accelerating while legacy segments are clearly recovering, allowing the company to fully participate in this AI cycle with both earnings and valuation moving higher. For more, follow Dolphin Research’s subsequent takes and Trans. $Dell Tech(DELL.US)

Q2 overall GPM is expected to be roughly flat vs. Q1. Approx. 20.6%.

New-vehicle Cycle: Early Inflection

XPeng 1Q26 First Take: results modestly beat a low bar.

Q2 sales and revenue guidance came in above expectations.

Details below.

1) ASP reached RMB 175k, slightly above the street’s RMB 172k, up RMB 11k QoQ, driving auto revenue to RMB 11 bn vs. consensus RMB 10.8 bn.

2) Auto GPM was 12.1%, down 90bps QoQ as scale benefits faded and upstream materials costs rose, yet still above the street’s 11.3%.

3) Non-GAAP net loss was slightly wider than expected (actual -RMB 1.78 bn vs. -RMB 1.66 bn), mainly on higher R&D QoQ.

On Q2 guidance, where investor focus is higher, XPeng offered constructive signals.

1) Q2 deliveries guided to 100k–106k units, ahead of the street’s 97k.

2) Q2 revenue guided to RMB 19.6–20.8 bn, also above the street’s RMB 19.3 bn, primarily on stronger volumes.

Below is Dolphin Research’s Trans of the $Salesforce(CRM.US) FY27 Q1 earnings call. For our analysis, see 'Salesforce: neither growth nor profit — can the AI story still hold?'

I) Key takeaways: 1) Record shareholder returns. The company executed a $25bn accelerated share repurchase (ASR), the largest in its history and half of the $50bn buyback authorization. The ASR reduced diluted shares outstanding in Q1 by 10% YoY...

0528 | Dolphin Research Focus 🐬 Stock 1, $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) — Supply chain checks indicate that, on surging AI compute demand and fully loaded 3nm lines, TSMC plans to raise 3nm foundry pricing by up to 15% in H2, with a further 5–10% hike likely in 2027. Current 3nm capacity is approx. 160–175k wafers per month and remains in shortage.

As the legacy SaaS bellwether under pressure from the 'AI replacement' narrative, $Salesforce(CRM.US) reported FY27 Q1 (ended Apr.) after the U.S. close on May 28. Overall, the print was muted.

The quarter was fine, with most metrics roughly in line with the Street. There was little to flip the narrative.

Forward guide skewed soft. With no clear sign of revenue re-acceleration, management trimmed the margin outlook.

Specifically: 1) Growth remains uneventful. Core subscription revenue was approx. $10.6bn, up 12% YoY on a CC basis...

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of Marvell's FY27 Q1 (FQ1 2027; period ended May 2, 2026) earnings call. For our earnings analysis, see 'Marvell: AI mega-interconnects bring another opportunity — can it support the Little Broadcom dream?'.