Alphabet - C

Updating safety and preventive of accident mobile transport are always better if it saves lives in an emergency. The other good comfort or convenience functions are good to have.

A buddy asked me to do a post on how to analyze a specific asset.

Here's a quick overview: Buffett, Munger, and Aswath Damodaran have all explained the methodology clearly.

1. Buying stocks is buying the company and its future cash flows.

2. Key areas to evaluate: business model (sustainability of profitability), moat, team culture (long-term viability), and the CEO (integrity and problem-solving skills).

For example:

1. I buy $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) because I believe it has a strong moat and sustainable profitability.

2. For $Tesla(TSLA.US), I'm bullish on the future business models of Robotaxis and humanoid robots, as well as Elon Musk as CEO; he has overcome countless challenges over the years and will continue to do so. The same logic applies to $SpaceX(SPCX.US).

3. With $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US), I'm betting on Cloud + AI and their ability to generate profits in the AI era.

I won't list every example, but the core idea is believing in the company's products and its future earning power.

Understanding this means that when volatility hits, you still stand by your thesis and happily add to your position 🤔

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Context:

Alphabet (GOOGL) is around 345. The recent pullback is mainly about concerns over huge AI infrastructure spending and rising capex, rather than a deterioration in the core business. At the same time, Q2 was very strong: revenue grew 24%, Search grew 17%, YouTube Ads 13%, and Google Cloud jumped 82%, with Cloud backlog reaching $514B.

Analysts remain broadly bullish. The current 12-month consensus target is around 428, with a range of roughly 340-515. Recent targets include $410 from Rosenblatt, $425 from Barclays, $440 from Roth and $465 from BMO.

My trade:

Currently about my cost price.

Since the position is already around breakeven, I would hold. I would only add aggressively if GOOGL falls toward 325. Above $380, I would stop chasing and let the position run.

Takeaway:

Hold. I like GOOGL here for a medium/long-term position. The AI capex is the main risk, but the underlying business is still accelerating—especially Cloud and AI monetisation.

I would treat 400 as the first meaningful profit taking checkpoint and 425-450 as the area where I'd consider selling 20-30%, rather than selling everything.

I expect $Meta Platforms(META.US) to continue to underperform the S&P 500 near-term as the outcome of a $1 trillion trial in Northern CA overhangs the stock. Like tobacco litigation 30 years ago, $Meta Platforms(META.US) is being sued by California and a multi-state coalition of attorneys general who have argued that $Meta Platforms(META.US) designed Facebook and Instagram to be addictive to children and teens, improperly collected their data, and misled the public about the platforms' safety. The trial in federal court in Oakland before U.S. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers who was appointed by Barack Obama is likely to overhang the stock until the advisory jury renders a verdict in October. The advisory jury is hearing the evidence and issues a verdict; the judge is the ultimate decision-maker on liability, penalties, and remedies. On appeal, the case would go to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which is widely viewed as one of the more liberal circuits in the U.S. federal court system.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) remains the worst YTD performer (-20%) of all Mag 8 stocks, with only $Meta Platforms(META.US) (-15% YTD) which is facing an existential threat to its core business given a $1.4 trillion consumer liability trial that got underway this week also in the red. NDX overall is up +16% YTD, fueled by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (+16%), $Apple(AAPL.US) (+15%.), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) (+12%). TSLA’s troubles are due to lower than expected auto gross margins in its core EV business and a slower than expected scale up of its unsupervised autonomy efforts due to efficacy and safety concerns/an abundance of caution.

$Apple(AAPL.US) While other 'Magnificent Seven' companies spend big on AI, Apple's more conservative strategy has turned the stock into a valuable portfolio hedge against volatility. Apple's "business is built on a consumer hardware and services ecosystem rather than cloud infrastructure or ad-supported platforms." Analysts have speculated for months that Apple could be one of the most resilient Big Tech names. While Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet pour hundreds of billions of dollars into capital expenditures for AI initiatives, Apple hasn't participated in the same level of spending. Earlier attempts to roll out Apple Intelligence back in 2024 largely failed, leading many to see the company as an AI laggard. But Apple's "go-slow" strategy comes in handy on days when investor concerns about AI overspending flare up, insulating the stock from downturns that hit the semiconductor space. By focusing on its hardware products instead of chasing emerging AI technologies, Apple has grown its installed base to over 2.5 billion active devices. As a result, the company now has an unrivaled distribution network to monetize on-device. This is the main reason why I'm holding on to my position in Apple. In the new AI era, Apple has managed to stay relatively competitive even when it does not engage in the AI war with the other Mag 7 companies. I will be looking to add if the share price retraces back to around $280. @Captain's Treasure

Meritz Securities: CSPs flooding requests to secure HBM supply for 2028.

BREAKING: Marvell $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) has issued $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) a warrant to buy up to 58.97M shares at $206.58, equal to about 6.7% of shares outstanding.

Source: amit

$Carmax(KMX.US)#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards

### Trade Recap

My CarMax (KMX) position shows a 1.01% unrealized loss, with an entry cost of $58.235 and a current price of $57.500. The minor pullback moved in line with broad softness across consumer cyclical stocks, as traders reassessed the recovery pace of the US used-vehicle retail market. No company-specific negative news drove the dip; it largely reflects cautious near-term sentiment over auto loan rates and vehicle affordability. I kept the full position intact through the session, treating this mild retreat as normal trading noise rather than a trend break.

### Investment Insight

This small drawdown delivers a straightforward lesson: cyclical recoveries never advance in a straight line. Even when the long-term restructuring thesis stays solid, short-term sentiment shifts can easily produce 1–2% daily swings. Overtrading on such minor fluctuations only racks up transaction costs and eats into potential returns. For retail cyclical trades, patience pays off; real turning points show up in quarterly sales and margin data, not in single-day price moves.

### Risk Control Strategy

I cap KMX at 7% of my total portfolio to contain auto-cycle concentration risk. A 5% hard stop-loss from my cost basis is active to limit downside if the used-car market worsens further. I will not average down on small dips; extra capital will only be deployed if upcoming earnings reports confirm improving unit economics and stabilizing inventory conditions. (Word count: 292)$Carmax(KMX.US)$Grab(GRAB.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Rumor: Intel Malaysia took over some advanced packaging for TSMC due to a surge in orders for CoWoS packaging by a major mutual client, media report, adding ASE, Unimicron, Gudeng Precision and others are also expected to benefit from the move. TSMC is expected to ship more advanced chips as the packaging bottleneck eases. $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Three of Taiwan’s top chip design houses have invested in new data centers for more R&D compute, media report:

Source: Dan Nystedt

Watching $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X is like watching a table of college students at a bar whooping it up as they down Tequila shots. As my wife observing them recently said to me: “They think they’re doing something.”

WSJ: off-balance-sheet commitments across nine big tech filings

> Total: roughly $3.0T, mostly AI related, sourced from filing footnotes

> Composition: $1.2T uncommenced leases + $1.9T purchase commitments (chips, equipment, energy, services)

> $Meta Platforms(META.US) : $347B future lease commitments

> $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) : $811B purchase and contractual obligations

> $Oracle(ORCL.US) : off-balance-sheet lease commitments up about 30x in four years

Note: the $1.2T uncommenced lease figure is roughly 4x the prior year disclosure. None of it is undisclosed. It sits in the footnotes.