Hang Seng Index

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While the US stock market hovers under the shadow of tariffs, the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven structural frenzy. But is this 'Hong Kong stocks feast' the beginning of a trend revaluation, or a short-lived bubble induced by capital?From a macro perspective, the weak dollar cycle and the abundance of Hong Kong dollar liquidity are the core drivers of the Hong Kong stock market. In May, US tariff revenue surged to a peak of $22 billion, yet the CPI remained stable, coupled with the potential impact of immigration policies on the job market, the probability of a Fed rate cut in June-July is extremely low. The US stock market remains in a tug-of-war between 'chicken ribs market and downside risk.' In contrast, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has quickly slid from the strong-side guarantee to the weak-side edge, HIBOR rates are nearly zero, and the abundant liquidity is flooding into new consumption, innovative drugs, and A/H premium targets, driving both blue-chip dividend stocks and growth assets higher.However, the sustainability of the structural revaluation of Hong Kong stocks is highly dependent on the liquidity environment. The current extremely low level of HIBOR has deviated from the US benchmark interest rate. If the Fed's policy shifts or there are changes in the supply and demand of funds, a liquidity retreat could trigger a valuation correction. More critically, the structural premium of the same asset in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares lacks fundamental support. In a market dominated by southbound funds, caution is needed against the risk of valuation overshoot under 'capital frenzy.'In the short term, as long as the cost of borrowing in Hong Kong dollars remains low, there is still room for liquidity-driven revaluation to continue. However, in the long term, whether Hong Kong stocks can escape the 'capital market' dilemma depends on whether corporate earnings can take over liquidity as the anchor of valuation. Investors need to closely monitor changes in HIBOR rates and maintain sensitivity to risks amid the liquidity feast. $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

Strategy Report

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Hello everyone! I am Dolphin Research. Last week, I emphasized in the Dolphin Research Strategy Weekly that Chinese concept assets deserve a cognitive reassessment. From the asset performance last week, the valuation repair of Hong Kong stocks led by technology has been significant: the PE valuation of the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has repaired to around 10X, reaching about the 60th percentile of the past five years. Next, an important question is, how much more room is there for reassessment? Before answering this question, let's first look at how the external economic data has provided a repair environment. 1. Is the U.S. economy overheating again? 1) Is inflation going to rebound? Since the beginning of the year...

Roundhill China Magnificent Seven ETF

HSCEI ETF

Invesco China Tech

Invesco Golden Dragon China

Chinese Concept Stocks: How Much Longer Can They "Go Crazy"?

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As Alibaba &amp; Hang Seng Technology broke previous highs, here are some insights from Dolphin Research. During the Spring Festival of the Year of the Snake, while everyone is celebrating the New Year, the Chinese stock market, especially the Hong Kong stock market, and overseas markets, is quite vibrant. Taking the Hang Seng Technology Index as an example, from the low point on January 13 to today, it has accumulated a rise of over 25% in just one month, outperforming global capital markets and far better than the generally fluctuating U.S. stock indices during the same period, reminiscent of the significant surge around October last year. In this wave of surge, Alibaba is undoubtedly one of the leading stocks. From January 13 to today, it has accumulated a rise of about 50%. As a trillion-dollar giant, a half-fold increase in just one month is astonishing and has brought substantial returns to investors. Today, both Alibaba and the Hang Seng Technology Index briefly broke through last October's highs (though they have retreated somewhat since), and Dolphin Research would like to share some of our insights: 1) Firstly, the catalyst and main theme of this round of increase are different from last October. The previous surge was due to a policy shift leading to a comprehensive reassessment of Chinese assets. This time can be summarized as follows: DeepSeek has replicated the &#34;singularity moment&#34; of ChatGPT in the U.S. stock market, which has initiated a continuous AI wave. Therefore, the leading stocks in this round are mainly related to AI, including upstream semiconductor chips, cloud computing power providers, and software or hardware applicable to AI (such as smartphones, AR glasses, autonomous driving, etc.). 2) Since the main theme is closely related to AI, borrowing from the experience of the U.S. stock market, the earliest and most benefited from AI investments are the upstream chip hardware (NVIDIA corresponds to China's SMIC). Following closely are cloud computing providers represented by Microsoft (from the low point at the end of 2022 to the mid-2024 high point, trillion-dollar supergiants have seen their stock prices double). With the &#34;replay&#34; of the AI investment theme in China, the demand for cloud computing services from upstream is relatively certain, benefiting from the substantial usage requirements brought by downstream enterprises for both training and inference. Especially after DeepSeek has demonstrated the possibility of low-cost &amp; high-performance AI large models, it suggests that the costs for cloud providers to offer AI services may be lower than previously expected, and downstream demand may be higher than anticipated. This means higher profits + higher revenue potential, which can be said to enhance the market's long-term outlook for cloud providers in the AI era. Under this logic, domestic cloud computing or AI model providers like Alibaba and Baidu are the most direct beneficiaries. The news that Apple will collaborate with Alibaba to provide AI services for domestic iPhone users (which has been confirmed by Joseph Tsai today) has further highlighted Alibaba. Although the details of the collaboration are currently unknown and it is difficult to quantify the benefits, emotionally, the previously somewhat obscure Alibaba large model has been brought to the center of market attention under Apple's endorsement, amidst &#34;has-been internet celebrities&#34; like Wenxin Yiyan, Kimi, and Doubao. In short, the market's reassessment of Alibaba Cloud should be the main contributor to Alibaba's significant surge this time. 3) Additionally, Alibaba's valuation is still largely dependent on its Taobao and Tmall businesses, and the core e-commerce business must not become a drag on valuation. According to the company's guidance for 3QF25, the Taobao and Tmall Group expects CMR to grow by 5% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITA is expected to decline by about 3% year-on-year. Compared to the less than 3% year-on-year growth in CMR and over 5% year-on-year decline in profits in 2QF25, there has been a quarter-on-quarter improvement. Measures like full-site push seem to be starting to show effects in enhancing Taobao and Tmall's TR. Although we currently maintain a cautious outlook on the mid-term trends of domestic e-commerce, the improving state of the core e-commerce business at least won't worry investors about being undermined by a weak-performing e-commerce business while betting on AI and Alibaba Cloud, which is also the foundation for Alibaba's noticeable rise this time. 4) After a rise of about 50%, how do we view Alibaba's current price? Firstly, we want to point out that the aforementioned visions around AI and the reassessment of Alibaba Cloud's performance &amp; valuation are still in the logical and emotional phase, and the actual impact on performance will take time to materialize. In other words, the recent surge is partly driven by valuation expansion, especially the valuation of Alibaba Cloud. We consider two scenarios. Firstly, in a neutral optimistic scenario, we generally keep the valuation of the core Taobao and Tmall business unchanged (corresponding to the unclear prospects of domestic e-commerce), still applying a 10x PE to the adjusted earnings for 2025, corresponding to a valuation of about 1.5+ trillion. For Alibaba Cloud's valuation, we refer to the current implied expectations, applying a 5x P/S for 2025 revenue (slightly lower than the average of about 7x P/S for U.S. SaaS), corresponding to about 570 billion. The total valuation is about 2.1 trillion, roughly corresponding to the current market value. In an extremely optimistic scenario, if we restore the valuation of the core Taobao and Tmall business to 12x PE, Alibaba Cloud's valuation would be raised to above the average of U.S. SaaS at 10x P/S. Then, just the Alibaba Cloud business would correspond to about 1.15 trillion in market value, with the group totaling nearly 3 trillion in market value. It should be noted that this is a simple extrapolation of the valuation range under pure valuation expansion. As seen in the U.S. stock market, after the first wave of emotional surges, it is still necessary to observe the actual performance delivery of each quarter. If the narrative can be transformed into tangible incremental performance, then after raising performance expectations, the final valuation may exceed our above optimistic estimates. If it is just storytelling without performance delivery, then naturally it will &#34;come from nowhere, go back to nowhere.&#34; Of course, Dolphin Research holds an optimistic view on the overall prospects of AI. &lt;End of text&gt; Risk Disclosure and statement of this article: <a href="https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer">Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure</a>

海豚投研免责声明及一般披露 - 長橋證券（新西蘭） - 幫助中心

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Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

Hang Seng TECH Index

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Today’s Key News Recap

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Dolphin focuses on: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Today, both Hong Kong and A-shares were collectively booming, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3300 points and the Hang Seng Index rising over 2.3%. The market is buzzing with &#34;short essays,&#34; mainly focusing on: 1) Two major meetings in December, with rumors suggesting one may be held earlier, as the market speculates on expectations for economic stimulus; 2) It is rumored that the December economic meeting will expand the deficit ratio to 4.5. However, currently, there is no clear evidence supporting these messages, and the direction of sentiment remains difficult to determine...

SSE Index

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Hong Kong, A accelerates explosion! What happened? | Today's important news review

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Countdown to the U.S. election, the answer will be revealed on the 6th if there are no abnormalities, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on the 7th. The National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting will conclude at 8 AM Beijing time. The earnings season for U.S. stocks has just passed its peak, and this week is packed with macro events. Where exactly is the market trading now, and how should we view the future? This article aims to outline the current situation from the perspective of considering responses to different scenarios, rather than making predictions. The first question is to take a look at market trading: 1. U.S. economic data is &#34;slightly cool.&#34; Last week, in addition to the earnings reports from the giants...

NASDAQ Composite Index

SPDR S&P 500

Will the AI infrastructure frenzy backfire, and is the Trump trade coming to an end?

BYD's Denza brand to launch Z9GT and 'Flash Charger' technology in Paris

Baijiu brands are embracing instant retail channels

Tencent Games to showcase multiple cutting-edge technological achievements at GDC 2026

Pony.ai's Robotaxi service is officially integrated into Tencent Mobility Services.

Tencent-backed AI chip company Enflame Technology reportedly plans for a Hong Kong IPO.

Meituan launches a 360 yuan coupon package for 9.9 yuan

BYD is reportedly considering acquiring one of the top 10 car companies

AI shopping becomes a hot trend for the new year; Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen facilitated nearly 200 million 'one-sentence orders' during the Spring Festival

Xiaomi to End Software Update Support for Xiaomi 12 and 12 Pro

Tencent Plans to Launch Built-in AI Assistant in WeChat

Pop Mart will go ex-dividend on May 29, 2026

Pop Mart's new IP receives a cold market reception, raising concerns about its 'dependence' on existing IPs

Pop Mart's lawsuit against Bambu Lab for infringement will be heard on April 2

Alibaba and Tencent jointly invest in brain-computer interface company Jieti Medical for the first time

Online Games and Game Exports Included in China's 15th Five-Year Development Plan

CCTV 315 Gala exposes "exosome" medical beauty chaos, Meituan removes related products

China to Release Key Jan-Feb Macroeconomic Data

China Internet Finance Association Issues Risk Warning on OpenClaw Application Security

Xiaomi officially launches its new SU7 car with a starting price of 229,900 RMB.

JD Launches Online Inspection Service to Improve Home Appliance and Home Service Standards

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HKEX plans to implement a new round of reforms aimed at attracting more companies to list in Hong Kong. The main measures include lowering the financial threshold for "dual-class shares," increasing the ratio of different voting rights to 20 to 1, reducing the financial threshold for secondary listings, expanding the scope of confidential IPO submissions, and strengthening the return mechanism. Reports from Cinda International and China Minsheng Bank International indicate that the Hong Kong stock market has entered a stage of steady growth, with significant industry valuation recovery, and some sectors still have undervaluation advantages

- The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced significant reforms to its listing rules aimed at attracting more companies to list in Hong Kong, including lowering financial thresholds and expanding confidentiality provisions for IPO applications.  
- Since January 2024, Hong Kong stocks have experienced a 25-month bull market, shifting to a more stable growth phase after recent corrections, with the Hang Seng Index stabilizing around its annual average.  
- Industry valuations show a clear recovery in sectors like materials and financials, while technology and healthcare remain undervalued, positioning Hong Kong stocks advantageously compared to global markets.

腾讯新闻 - 财经

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Huatai-PB CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to implement a new round of reforms to attract more companies to list in Hong Kong

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The Hong Kong stock market has repeatedly softened due to the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 61 points at 25,898 points. Nio recorded its first quarterly profit, with its stock price rising by 14.1%. Power and energy stocks performed strongly, with CATL and CALB rising by 9% and 8.7%, respectively. Overall market turnover decreased by 23% to HKD 254.481 billion

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"Hong Kong Stocks" The Hang Seng Index closed down 61 points, Nio surged 14%, and power and energy stocks were favored against the market trend

The Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau announced measures to strengthen the regulation of licensed money lenders, setting a cap on the repayment-to-income ratio for low-income individuals. For those with a monthly income of HKD 6,000 or below, the repayment ratio must not exceed 35%, while the cap for those earning between HKD 6,001 and HKD 12,000 is set at 40%. The measures will be implemented in two phases, with the first phase taking effect in August this year, and the second phase, the "Credit Reference" measure, expected to be implemented in June next year, requiring lenders to provide borrower credit information to the credit data platform every 30 days

- The Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau conducted public consultations from June to August last year to strengthen regulations on lenders and address over-borrowing issues.  
- The measures will be implemented in two phases: the first includes a repayment-to-income ratio limit for low-income borrowers and other restrictions, set to begin in August, while the second phase related to the "Credit Info Hub" will commence in June next year.  
- The Bureau received 150 feedback submissions during the consultation period and aims to continue engaging with various stakeholders to ensure effective implementation of the new regulations.

香港 01

Financial Secretary: Set a repayment income ratio cap for low-income individuals, with a monthly income of 6000 capped at 35%

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In the first two months of 2026, the cumulative increment of social financing scale reached 9.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 316.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. By the end of February 2026, the stock of social financing scale was 451.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. The M2-M1 spread was 3.1 percentage points, further narrowing compared to January

- The People's Bank of China reports a 9.0% year-on-year growth in broad money (M2) and an 8.2% increase in the scale of social financing by the end of February 2026.  
- The total social financing flow for February was 2.38 trillion yuan, while loans increased by 900 billion yuan, indicating a stabilization in credit growth despite seasonal fluctuations.  
- Experts suggest that ongoing financial policies are effectively supporting the economy, with expectations of continued reasonable growth in financial metrics as businesses resume operations post-holiday.

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In February, China's new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year-on-year

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The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.52%, and the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 0.42%

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The Hang Seng TECH Index fell by 0.11%. 51WORLD rose by about 28%, Shandong Molong rose by about 17%, Nio rose by about 14%, HG SEMI rose by about 11%, Geely Auto rose by about 8%, and XPeng rose by about 4%

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The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.24%, and CATL rose 9%

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The Hang Seng Index main futures closed up 0.47% in the overnight session, at 25,481 points. The Hang Seng TECH Index main futures closed up 0.34% in the overnight session, at 4,981 points

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The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.69%, and the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 0.60%

Hang Seng TECH ETF I

Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF(QDII)

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Hong Kong stocks rose in the morning session, with the Hang Seng Index up 396 points at 25,804 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 91 points, and the Hang Seng TECH Index up 69 points. Tencent's stock price increased by 5.7%, reaching HKD 545.5. AI stocks MiniMax and IM Motors rose by 9.5% and 6.9%, respectively. Other tech stocks such as Alibaba and Bilibili also saw increases, while Kuaishou, NetEase, JD.com, and Baidu rose slightly. The total market turnover was HKD 172.007 billion

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Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose 396 points in the first half of the day, with Tencent up 5.7% and CATL rising over 8% after earnings

The latest Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) data shows that the overnight rate is 1.6 cents, an increase of 2.845 basis points from the previous trading day; the one-week rate is 1.67369 cents, up 3.059 basis points; the one-month rate is 2.07583 cents, up 4.601 basis points; the three-month rate is 2.37744 cents, up 0.518 basis points; the six-month rate is 2.60375 cents, unchanged; the twelve-month rate is 2.8 cents, up 2.393 basis points

Latest Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR)

The Investment Promotion Agency and the Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Association jointly held a Chinese New Year reception for Chinese-funded enterprises on the 10th, attracting nearly 800 representatives from Chinese-funded enterprises. The event included a "Mainland Enterprises Going Global Forum," discussing how to leverage Hong Kong as a home port for overseas development. Financial Secretary Paul Chan emphasized Hong Kong's unique advantages in national development, while Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau stated that Hong Kong is ready to support Mainland enterprises in expanding into international markets

Nearly 800 representatives from Chinese-funded enterprises gathered for a forum and cocktail party co-hosted by the Investment Promotion Agency and the China Enterprise Confederation to assist mainland companies in going overseas

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Hong Kong stocks ADR are expected to open 1 point higher on Monday, reporting 25,467 points. The relative stock prices and the premium situation of Hong Kong stocks to the American Depositary Receipts are as follows: CKH HOLDINGS HKD 57.686 (premium 0.98%), CLP Holdings HKD 73.908 (premium -0.42%), Hong Kong and China Gas HKD 7.232 (premium 3.15%), Wharf Real Estate Investment HKD 23.012 (premium 3.34%), HSBC HOLDINGS HKD 122.401 (premium 0.08%), POWER ASSETS HKD 61.209 (premium 0.80%), PCCW HKD 6.036 (premium -0.27%), HENDERSON LAND HKD 30.385 (premium 1.69%), SHK PPT HKD 130.792 (premium -0.30%), NEW WORLD DEV HKD 7.984 (premium 15.98%), SWIRE PACIFIC A HKD 85.708 (premium -0.48%), BANK OF E ASIA HKD 13.327 (premium 2.50%), GALAXY ENT HKD 39.48 (premium -7.65%), HANG LUNG GROUP HKD 9.173 (premium -0.03%), GEELY AUTO HKD 19.118 (premium -8.99%), CITIC HKD 10.614 (premium 6.65%), Cathay Pacific Airways HKD 12.445 (premium -0.92%)

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Hong Kong stocks ADR expect the Hang Seng Index to open 1 point higher on Monday, reporting at 25,467 points

Hang Seng Index(HSI.HK)

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to implement a new round of reforms to attract more companies to list in Hong Kong

"Hong Kong Stocks" The Hang Seng Index closed down 61 points, Nio surged 14%, and power and energy stocks were favored against the market trend

Financial Secretary: Set a repayment income ratio cap for low-income individuals, with a monthly income of 6000 capped at 35%

In February, China's new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year-on-year

The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.52%, and the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 0.42%