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Today’s Key News Recap

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0319 | Dolphin Research Watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) On Mar 18 (ET), the Fed kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The latest dot plot now points to just one cut in 2026 (25bps), a sharp pullback from the prior 2–3 cuts.Powell struck a hawkish tone at the presser, saying the oil spike driven by Middle East tensions is feeding into core inflation. He also confirmed that if a successor is not confirmed by Congress in time, he would stay on as 'acting chair'...

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Xiaomi MiMo model scores a hat-trick; COIN targets AI payments with stablecoins | Daily News Recap

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Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of Tencent's FY25 Q4 and full-year earnings call. For our earnings take, please see '腾讯：到了去登味，AI 上火候的时候了'.Key highlights: 1) Shareholder returns: proposed FY DPS of HKD 5.3 (+18% YoY). For FY25, planned buybacks of ~153.4 mn shares (HKD 80 bn total); with AI opportunities in focus, 2026 repurchases may come in below 2025, while the dividend payout will be increased...

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Tencent (Trans): Sees clear opportunity to ramp up AI investment, expects impact on margin and buybacks

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TCEHY: Time to Ditch the Boomer Vibe, Turn Up the Heat on AI!---

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Tencent Q4 2025 First Take: results were broadly in line with expectations and lacked surprises, so the market reaction is likely muted.Focus now shifts to the call, where we look for guidance on this year's growth outlook amid a big game slate and AI tailwinds, as well as plans for Capex and shareholder returns.1) Revenue: games and ads delivered strong growth, while FinTech &amp; Business Services was lukewarm.Games performed well across China and overseas, and ads came in slightly below Bloomberg consensus; several houses had trimmed ad forecasts earlier this year given soft consumption.Based on Dolphin Research's checks, Q4 ads for WeChat Channels, Mini Games, Search, and Tencent Music were solid.By contrast, Official Accounts declined, and media ads across QQ, Sogou, and Tencent News remained a drag.Consumption headwinds also weighed on FinTech &amp; Business Services.Combined revenue for the two segments rose 8%, with enterprise services up 22%; rough math implies FinTech grew mid-single digits, pointing to a slow recovery.2) Profitability: the margin uptrend remains intact, with OP margin up 200bps YoY.Marketing spend tied to AI products such as Yuanbao was notable, with promo expenses up 44% YoY and QoQ spend higher by ~RMB 1.5bn.Beyond limited new game launches, this was likely mainly paid user acquisition for Yuanbao, and Q1 sales &amp; marketing will only be higher.Other expense growth was driven by AI-related server costs and R&amp;D personnel.Overall opex ratio rose another 50bps YoY but was offset by GPM improvement.Gross margin improved across all three segments, helped by a higher mix of self-developed titles (lower revenue sharing) and a greater share of Channels ads.3) Capital allocation: Q4 Capex was HK$19.6bn, up QoQ, while cash outflow was HK$22.4bn due to prepayments.Even on a cash basis, 2025 full-year Capex will be under HK$90.0bn, implying a notably larger budget this year.Q4 stood at HK$19.6bn and full-year at HK$77.2bn; the board announced a dividend of HK$5.3 per share, implying ~HK$48.0bn in total, up 18% YoY.If excess cash is funneled into AI (compute buildout domestically and abroad, and more product/model development), buybacks may remain constrained and potential shareholder yield could stay below ~2.5%.This may disappoint value-oriented funds that came in over the past two years for higher shareholder returns.From Dolphin Research's perspective, AI competition is more urgent and core to the business, with Tencent relatively behind; Tencent's investment stance is conservative and has room to step up (Capex at ~10% of revenue, below global tech leaders).$TENCENT(00700.HK) $Tencent(TCEHY.US) $Tencent Holdings Limited(TCTZF.US)

News

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0318 | Dolphin Research Watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The Fed kicked off its two-day FOMC meeting on Mar. 17 local time. The market broadly expects the policy rate to stay at 3.50%–3.75%.However, sticky inflation (PPI at 2.9%) and a Middle East-driven oil spike (WTI above $100) are tightening expectations for 2026 cuts. Investors are dialing back the number of cuts priced in. If the dot plot due on the 18th indicates just one cut in 2026—or none at all...

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MiniMax debuts M2.7, shows a 'self-evolving' model; META trims 'metaverse' again | Daily News Recap

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Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY2025 earnings call for $Tencent Music(TME.US) and $TME-SW(01698.HK). For our earnings take, see 'Tencent Music: Soda Music's big push — are the easy days over?'I. Key takeaways1) Shareholder returns: announced a FY2025 cash dividend of $0.24 per ADS, with total payout approx. $368mn, a sharp increase vs. last year. The buyback program still has sizable remaining authorization and will continue subject to market conditions...

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TME (Trans): Agile amid intense competition, prioritizing shareholder returns

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On Mar 17 (Beijing time), after the HK close and ahead of the US pre-market, $Tencent Music(TME.US) released its Q4 2025 results. Q4 was a mixed bag. The 'second curve' kept gaining traction, but an unstable user ecosystem slowed subscription revenue growth, so Dolphin Research’s overall read is cautious.1) Users kept slipping. MAU fell by 23 mn QoQ in Q4, a bit worse than typical seasonal attrition. Over a longer horizon, the trend remains down.We think the company may ramp up user acquisition spend. This could include initiatives after regulatory approval of the Ximalaya acquisition...

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TME: Qishui's Blitz, Are the Good Days Over?---

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0317 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Stock #1, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) — NVIDIA's GTC 2026 officially kicked off, and founder &amp; CEO Jensen Huang delivered the keynote.He announced a Vera Rubin Space Module under the next-gen Vera Rubin architecture, designed for orbital data centers, delivering 25x performance vs. H100.He also unveiled a partnership with Groq to co-develop new LPU chips...

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NVDA GTC in focus; Alibaba 'Token strategy' ramps up | Daily News Recap

Yesterday $TENCENT(00700.HK) $Tencent(TCEHY.US) rallied sharply. It was driven not only by the public rollout of the 'Lobster' bundle — Workbuddy (a desktop AI agent workspace for office use, compatible with OpenClaw skills), QQ-bot (an IM-focused bot that connects to the OpenClaw bot), and Qclaw (one-click OpenClaw deployment with WeChat/QQ integration). A report from The Information also helped: a WeChat Agent is coming, with limited testing around mid-year and a full rollout in Q3. The WeChat Agent is not new; Tencent started the project last year, likely built on Mini Programs within the WeChat ecosystem. It appeared in Q2–Q3 channel checks and on Tencent's earnings call, but management held back from spotlighting it given lagging base models, the need to ensure UX, and compute constraints. While broadly expected, the strong market reaction stems from two factors. First, Yuanbao's setbacks in the early-year AI bot race dented sentiment. Second, the leaked timeline for WeChat Agent — unconfirmed — raised expectations; Dolphin Research expects a phased launch prioritizing UX, so actual timing may slip. Amid a proliferation of AI entry points, anchoring the AI narrative around the WeChat ecosystem reignites confidence in Tencent's AI. With earnings next week, attention is also shifting to its solid fundamentals, with meaningful runway in ads and scheduled tentpoles such as 'Honor of Kings: World' and 'Roco Kingdom'. As a result, at an Approx. RMB 4tn market cap and ~13x P/E, sentiment has started to recover. Looking to next week's print, we expect focus not only on ads and games growth in 2024 but also on Tencent's AI progress and roadmap. If, as The Information suggests, WeChat Agent proceeds smoothly and goes full scale in Q3, compute capacity and costs will come under scrutiny. Some investors will also worry about higher spend weighing on near-term profit and shareholder returns.

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0309 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Middle East tensions escalated, sending Brent intraday close to $120/bbl. Nasdaq futures fell 2.32%, while VIX futures rose 7.28%.G7 finance ministers were set to hold an emergency meeting at 20:30 BJT on Mon, aiming to coordinate with the IEA to release oil reserves to steady prices. After the headlines, crude pulled back quickly.The move can cap prices in the short run and help stabilize risk sentiment. However, drawdowns are only a stopgap. If the conflict drags on, supply risks persist and energy and tech could see choppy swings...

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KraneShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF

Global Mkts Roiled by Oil Spike; Tencent's 'Little Lobster' Wildcard Debuts | Daily News Recap

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Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2025 annual earnings on March 18 After-Market (SGT), actual revenue SGD 136.63 B (forecast SGD 137.64 B), actual EPS SGD 4.3896

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2025 Q4 earnings on March 18 After-Market (SGT), actual revenue SGD 35.69 B (forecast SGD 35.59 B), actual EPS SGD 1.1522

Tencent Releases Earnings Report and Adjusts Capital Spending and Repurchase Strategy

Tencent Holdings Reports Record AI Spending of 79.2 Billion Yuan in 2025

Tencent Holdings' Q4 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations at 58.26 Billion Yuan

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 to Release FY2025 Annual Earnings on March 18, 2026 After-Market (SGT), Forecast Revenue SGD 138.71 B

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2025 9 Months Earnings on November 13 After-Market (SGT), with actual revenue of SGD 101.04 B and EPS of SGD 3.2429

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2025 Q3 earnings on November 13 After-Market (SGT), actual revenue SGD 34.95 B (forecast SGD 34.28 B), actual EPS SGD 1.2284

Tencent Holdings Sees Strong Game Revenue Growth in Q3

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 to Release FY2025 Q3 Earnings on November 13 After-Market (SGT), Forecast Revenue SGD 34.36 B

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2025 Semi-Annual earnings on August 13, 2025 (SGT), with actual revenue of SGD 66.1 B and actual EPS of SGD 2.0175

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2025 Q2 earnings on August 13 (SGT), actual revenue SGD 32.84 B (forecast SGD 31.85 B), actual EPS SGD 1.0671

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 to release FY2025 Semi-Annual earnings on August 13, 2025 (SGT)

Tencent Q1 2025 Earnings: Strong Growth in Games and Advertising

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2025 Q1 earnings on May 14 After-Market (SGT), actual revenue SGD 33.25 B (forecast SGD 31.48 B), actual EPS SGD 0.9472

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 to Release FY2025 Q1 Earnings on May 14 After-Market (SGT), Forecast Revenue SGD 31.46 B

Tencent Reports Double-Digit Growth in 4Q24 Earnings

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2024 Q4 earnings on March 19 After-Market (SGT), actual revenue SGD 32.14 B (forecast SGD 31.04 B), actual EPS SGD 1.0177

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 released FY2024 annual earnings on March 19 After-Market (SGT), actual revenue 122.63 B SGD (forecast 120.93 B SGD), actual EPS 3.8047 SGD

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 to Release FY2024 Earnings on March 19 After-Market SGT, Forecast Revenue 120.86 B SGD

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TENCENT (00700.HK) Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call for 2025

Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SG)

Tencent HK SDR 10to1 Stock Performance Chart