My call is 1B 2B 3B. I expect a 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, with three dissenting votes and 12 or more officials still seeing at least one more hike in 2026. The hike itself feels largely priced in, so for me, the bigger market risk is the Fed’s guidance and how firmly it signals that rates may stay higher for longer.
My plan is to stay patient rather than make a big move based on one Fed meeting. Higher rates can pressure growth stocks, REITs and leveraged positions, while potentially supporting USD and keeping Singapore borrowing costs elevated. I would continue accumulating quality companies gradually on meaningful pullbacks instead of chasing volatility, especially in AI and semiconductor names where my horizon is longer term.
What would change my mind is a much more hawkish dot plot or clear signs that inflation is becoming broader and more persistent than expected. If the Fed signals several more hikes and financial conditions tighten sharply, I would slow down my buying and keep more cash available. For now, I see this as a rate-and-guidance reset rather than a reason to abandon my long-term plan.
