Mizuho on Semis pullback: 'we see this as a buying opportunity with $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Credo Tech(CRDO.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), $Dell Tech(DELL.US), and $Lam Research(LRCX.US) remaining well-positioned'.
"We look at the AI semis space after reports of Anthropic and OpenAI CEOs calling for AI development slowdown post Dario Amodei's essay, with the push for guardrails on frontier model adoption. Key points: 1) Anthropic and OpenAI seeking to potentially slow down AI development citing safety concerns, with pushback from US Chair David Sacks challenging their altruistic reasoning, 2) we believe imposing RSI limits combined with a lack of global AI consensus or coordination implies potential AI pacing ineffectiveness, as it risks ceding share to efficient Chinese competition (Ex-2) and, 3) Key to watch - No change to AI DC Capex/GW compute spend from AI labs and CSPs, while AI adoption, while early, remains positive for the AI Semis beneficiaries. With the SOX down ~6% this morning, we see this as a buying opportunity with MU, LITE, CRDO, SNDK, AVGO, DELL, and LRCX remaining well-positioned."
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Goldman Sachs: WFE
Overall Market Growth> Significant Upward Revisions: Goldman Sachs has revised its total WFE forecasts upward, projecting $150B in 2026 (a 6% increase over old estimates) scaling up significantly to $281B by 2028 (+35% vs. old estimates).> Strong Year-over-Year (YoY) Momentum: Total WFE year-over-year growth is expected to peak at +45% in 2027, following a robust +36% in 2026.Segment Breakdown (DRAM & Foundry/Logic Lead)> Foundry/Logic Drive: Foundry and Logic segments account for the largest share, with 2026 spending estimated at $92B (+9% revision) growing rapidly to $162B by 2028.> DRAM Surge: DRAM is forecasted for explosive growth, moving from $48B in 2026 to $97B by 2028, reflecting persistent high demand with YoY growth rates staying above 35%.> NAND Lagging: In contrast, NAND is experiencing downward near-term revisions (-4% to -$13% compared to older estimates), though it is still expected to recover toward $22B by 2028.Regional Trends (China vs. Ex-China)> Sustained China Demand: China continues to command a robust appetite for WFE investments, expected to contribute $44.3B (29% of total WFE) in 2026 and peaking around $60.7B by 2028.> Ex-China Expansion: The rest of the world (Ex-China) accounts for the lion's share of spending, projected to accelerate from $106.0B in 2026 up to $220.2B (78% of the market) by 2028.(Cred @knockouttrader)$Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $ACM Research(ACMR.US) - A
Korea continues to import WFE equipment as it expands and upgrades existing fab capacity. Etch, in particular, has clearly been an area of focus.
But sometimes the data points to a more nuanced picture. Within Etch, the growth story is overwhelmingly concentrated in Dry/Plasma Etch.Why? ๐The dry etch surge lines up with SK Hynix's M15X and Samsung's P4 ramps, and the HBM buildout compounds it: TSV etch adds an extra dry etch step vs conventional DRAM, structurally raising dry etch intensity per wafer.Biggest beneficiary? ๐Lam Research - dominant in memory dry etch, and the TSV etch steps that HBM adds only deepen its exposure.Source: Chips & Wafers
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Semicap DRAM revenue is on fire. New peaks are loading. ASML has been gaining share in DRAM, driven by higher EUV adoption. AMAT stable. Lam and KLA cyclical gainers. TEL has been a share donor and surprisingly underperformed.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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Taiwan DRAM maker Nanya Tech plans to build new 12-inch wafer fabs in Yunlin and Pingtung, Taiwan for DRAM and customized DRAM, media report.
-The Yunlin fab will focus on sub-10nm process node products for AI.-Nanyaโs latest project, the NT$300 billion Linkou 5A DRAM fab, due for mass production in 2028-Media quote a Nanya executive confirming plans for additional new fabs, but declining to comment where. $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Tokyo Electron(TOELY.US) #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
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Nanya Technologyโs board approved to raise 2026 capex to NT$69.7 billion (US$2.2 billion) from NT$52 billion to speed up work on its new Fab 5A, media report, which is ultimately expected to cost up to NT$346.6 billion (US$10.7B) by 2029. Itโs the biggest investment by a Taiwan DRAM maker in 20-years. $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $SSNLF $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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GF Securities is forecasting global WFE to reach $236 billion in 2027 and then $295 billion in 2028.
$ACM Research(ACMR.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) - F
Top movers: $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Starbucks(SBUX.US) $Fortinet(FTNT.US)
Top Losers: $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) $Carvana(CVNA.US) - E
KLA with macro assumptions on the semiconductor industry:
> CY25-CY30E semiconductor industry CAGR of ~11% ๏ง > Wafer Equipment grows ~1 pt. faster than Semi to $215B +/- $20B ๏ง > ~60% foundry / logic, ~40% memory ๏ง > Process Control market grows > WFE$KLA $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) - H
$Lam Research(LRCX.US) | Evercore ISI ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ on ๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ก, ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ ๐๐ญ $๐๐๐
Analyst sees strong fundamentals but advises waiting to add shares, believing near-term positives are largely baked into the high valuation.
