Enpro

Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle...

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028.

400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line.

On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2).

TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online...

For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line.

Rather than one-and-done off of one year.

This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.

NPO presents an interim solution under the transition from pluggable to true CPO. NPO has certain benefits over CPO that bypass current production and reliability challenge of CPO, while maintaining most of the benefits CPO provide.

Pros:

🟠 Better serviceability (field replacable)

🟠 Lower blast radius (blast radius limited to the individual NPO module)

🟠 Easier assembly (Optical Engine are packaged separately from the Switch ASIC/XPU)

Let's look at how NPO differentiate from CPO architecturally. (1/3)🧵