Serenity

Wow Bitcoin + Ethereum pulled pretty extreme recoveries.

Looks like $Robinhood(HOOD.US) / $Coinbase(COIN.US) / Crypto is back?

On-chain equities trading + regulator exemptions probably put a lot of fuel into the fire for the sector.

That aside... crypto is usually a great indicator for high-beta AI equities believe it or not (they tend to frontrun broader market drops or rallies).

So overall market risk appetite might be coming back despite the rate hikes.

All right $Meta Platforms(META.US) Muse is cooking.

I can hear all the $AMD(AMD.US), $Intel(INTC.US), and $Arm(ARM.US) CPUs vrrrring in the background.

Along with the memory + components (NICs, SSDs, DRAM) needed for all the browsers/VMs

When I ask it to do a bunch of long form tasks…

Intel CEO also said recently that CPU demand is so strong they can only support 50% of what customers need, so there’s some signals there.

I’m also curious how much $Amazon(AMZN.US) or $Nebius(NBIS.US) is involved with running Muse, or if Meta hosts everything inhouse.

Kinda an ADHD post but Meta beat my expectations with this release.

Will keep trying it out

Just floating out an idea to $Broadcom(AVGO.US):

If you lock up $SIVE laser supply for next few years since you need “more laser capacity”.

You could unintentionally cause bottlenecks across your main ASIC competitors:

Like $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) (Celestial), AlChip, Mediatek, GUC (Ayar CPO), first gen deployments.

Where many also seem to be aligned with your best friend $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)…

Maybe it’s worth discussing spending spare change to lock up the remaining merchant laser supply?

I think there’s a gap to fill…

Since I believe retail deserves the same research and early thematic ideas that institutions access first.

I feel like everyone understandably gravitates institutional as they grow.

But helping retail has always been my priority. And that hasn’t changed even as I grew to 1M followers.

I’m excited to see what we can cook up together soon chat.

Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read:

1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030

So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI.

2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027.

Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030.

So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration.

Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $Amazon(AMZN.US) / $Meta Platforms(META.US) / $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028)

3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment

"At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI."

GG computer science majors.

4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario.

So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...)

Whereas -11.5% for knowledge workers in 2030 vs. baseline.

5. Aggregate capital income is ~81% higher than it would have been without AI

Productivity explodes -> aggregate labor income barely changes -> essentially all of the incremental GDP accrues to capital.

So that makes ownership of capital rather than labor... so equities like compute, power, semis, networking, robotics, etc. become pretty important...

TLDR:

- Economic growth go brr

- Jobs that require thinking = unemployment + lower wages

- Physical labor = more important, like electricians.

- AI equities go brrr.

Wait… this was real? I thought this was The Onion type meme.

Honestly would be more bullish on $Meta Platforms(META.US) if they admitted they trained on thousands of adult films… instead of claiming “personal use”.

What could Zuckerberg be cooking?

Is there any other industry... Where every investor is cheering for shortages and price hikes?

SED reported today that: Samsung / $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) "stockpiles have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and a severe shortage could emerge next year, according to a new forecast"

KB Securities said that the memory market next year will see "the tightest supply conditions in history"

KB Securities projects memory's share of AI infrastructure costs to expand from 40% this year to 57% next year, with others like TrendForce placing next year's figure at 68% (total hyperscaler capex, pretty wild forecast attached)

"Both stocks have fallen 38% from their peaks over the past three months, pushing their price-to-earnings ratios based on next year's expected results down to about three times."

Likewise, commentary around Phison stated they expect extremely tight NAND supply in 2027, so hard to see memory flooding the market or prices collapsing next year...

They gave some color that "soaring NAND prices have forced some Chinese consumer module makers to liquidate inventory, giving Phison opportunities to buy lower-priced stock", so it does show some price declines can coexist with broader shortages.

TLDR: KOSPI + read through for other names like $Micron Tech(MU.US) / $Sandisk(SNDK.US) might be happy for 2027 given demand causing shortages + infra spend share increase.

Let me get this straight chat… you have:

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+)

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B

OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) / $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) / $Amazon(AMZN.US) stating compute demand imbalances into next year, with Nvidia projecting $1.3T spend for 2027.

You’re seeing this flow through supply chains from Samsung 70% capacity LTAs into 2031 to Powertech advanced packaging capacity 100% booked into 2030.

Even your legacy players like Winbond are starting 2029-2030 allocations.

Markets always have temporary drawdowns and macro scares… but…

How can anyone not think AI stock go brrr?

Anthropic signs a $35B AI compute deal with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) backed Lambda.

$Hut 8 Mining(HUT.US) / DC, with Lambda / GPUs.

Frontier model demand is rapidly outpacing the ecosystem's ability to build capacity.

It also looks like Anthropic is securing more compute... Which neocloud/colo player is next?

Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today:

- 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total.

- $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor"

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market

If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint:

(UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips)

Revenue usually flows through you.

“Memory is a bubble.” Explain this then, KOSPI bears:

Samsung has reportedly reserved ~70% of its memory production capacity through 2031 via LTAs with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) as main counterparties.

Five years of demand visibility…

Imagine Celestial ($Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) acquisition) was public.

The valuation would probably be astronomical in US markets (if I had to guess, $6-10B)

Because 2028 revenue projections were $500m (q4 annualized runrate), 2029 revenue projections were $1B.

And because Celestial is a core part of hyperscaler CPO programs.

Celestial's 2026 Q2 earnings would have been:

- Close to $0 revenue (Marvell said "revenue and earnings since the acquisition were not material")

- Losing -$12.5M/quarter ($50M/year)

Would people who knew what they were talking about looking at qualification cycle players say...

1. based on Celestial's Q2 P/S numbers and because it was losing -$12.5M a quarter... That it's a worthless meme stock?

Or

2. with CPO hyperscaler opportunities for 2028, it should be valued at $6-10B?

And I think that's a core cultural disagreement between US / EU cultures + markets.

If you knew how to evaluate qualification cycle players, which number actually matters? I'd argue overwhelmingly the latter.

It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X:

- try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it

- get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups

- throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals

When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts.

One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone.

I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth.

But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls.

My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100.

All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to.

I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves.

Many ideas have worked out well: $AXT(AXTI.US), $Nebius(NBIS.US), $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Intel(INTC.US), $EWY, $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US), $Arm(ARM.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), and a lot more.

Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding.

Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $Churchill Capital XI(CCXI.US), $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes.

Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3.

And many like $Jabil(JBL.US) to Murata to $Maxlinear(MXL.US), I just share for fun to see if the idea is right.

Not every idea will be right. That's part of research.

But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it.

Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise.

Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.

I know everyone’s watching $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings right now…

But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?

So now you have:

- $Lumentum(LITE.US) (capacity gone)

- $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) (capacity gone)

- Landmark (capacity committed)

- $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) (capacity for transceivers)

- $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) (not online)

- $Semtech(SMTC.US) (limited)

I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia?

So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players).

Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers).

Let’s see how they execute.

All right back to $Semtech(SMTC.US) movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr":

My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing".

In the current market for optical products.

- No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine.

- I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover:

Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited.

They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp.

- TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) earnings).

Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers.

"We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end.

Very strong statement to make about being majority market share.

- 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI)

q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?"

a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there.

Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility)

Q2 revenue:

- $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected

- adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61

Q3 guidance was most exciting:

$410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue

$1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS.

yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q.

So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.

I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $Bloom Energy(BE.US) up 11.83%. Or Trump...

But you know what else is cool?

FAU bottlenecks for CPO.

I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) / $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CPO roadmaps...

This was some media commentary supporting that:

"It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) FAU supply chain"

"Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs"

In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off)

Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand"

Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US), following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production.

With $Nebius(NBIS.US) the first to adopt through Nebius token factory.

- 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context

- 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative

Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius.

That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures.

Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.

It's been fun to read these US Gov fact sheets (few a week) recently.

Earlier this week was "Golden Age of Space Transportation", with $SpaceX(SPCX.US) hard carrying the launch sector like Faker.

And $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) + other rocket companies as beneficiaries of the 1K launch/reentry goal by 2030.

This month we also had:

- Drone component tariffs

- American Mining / Critical Mineral deals

- Polysilicon supply chains tariffs

and a lot more... So helpful to see what sectors US policy is focusing on.

We got $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Macom Tech(MTSI.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings...

And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated:

Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years.

- "the entire supply chain is out of stock"

- "the supply is still far behind the market demand"

- "the shortage will continue to the next few years"

"Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply."

When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked:

It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.

So just tracking the MLCC cycle:

ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting:

- Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data.

Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing.

- Murata was ~24 weeks in June.

July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks.

This was interesting:

“The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027”

Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term.

Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting:

- $Sandisk(SNDK.US) 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day.

LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030.

- $Coreweave(CRWV.US) signs contracts for 6Y old $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) A100 GPUs through 2029.

For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis

- conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS

read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct.

- Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers.

Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt.

- $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028

Just more nvidia news every day

- $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Maia 300 discussed $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September.

Likely $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now:

- maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp.

- For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $Amazon(AMZN.US) ASIC program H2 2026...

So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries.

- $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"...

Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks.

Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes.

- $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030

(not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting)

- Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries)

- Aside from $Sandisk(SNDK.US), Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3.

- Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply.

Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $SIVE, and $Lumentum(LITE.US) earlier this week, but that's another fun one.

- some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo.

Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this.

TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter.

- "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes.

At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028.

- "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month.

TLDR:

- SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027

- Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028

Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent.

Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.

In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation.

If you’re not familiar, $Oracle(ORCL.US) is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs.

Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SpaceX(SPCX.US) per FT.

Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign.

On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top.

Enterprise is probably having a better time though.

Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors.

Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month.

Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.

$SIVE announces a $3.4M development program with SemiNex!

For CPO, DFB laser arrays, and optical amplifiers.

Early production is targeted H2 2027 (in line with early scale up CPO timelines)

Seemed weird to me at first given product overlap, since SemiNex is a much smaller Series B company...

But then I got reminded of a less explicit version of $SpaceX(SPCX.US) + Cursor relationship (derisking by working together first).

There's probably something interesting Sivers found in this company.

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance...

vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus.

SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings.

That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SpaceX(SPCX.US) + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June..

But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER).

Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.