Semiconductors

NVIDIA

Today’s Key News Recap

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1219 Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry.BOJ raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%, in line with market expectations, marking a 30-year high and the second hike within 11 months since Jan 2025, as core inflation has stayed above the 2% target for 44 straight months and a weaker yen is fueling imported price pressures.Twenty-four leading AI firms, including Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and OpenAI, ...

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MSFT, GOOGL and other giants rally behind US 'Project Genesis'; TikTok US plan finalized | Daily News Recap

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1217 | Dolphin Research Watchlist. 🐬 Stock 1: $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)On Dec 17, Xiaomi partner and Group President Lu Weibing said at the 2025 Xiaomi 'Human-Car-Home' ecosystem partner conference that the company will invest RMB 200 bn in R&amp;D over the next five years. It expects to spend approx. RMB 40 bn in 2026.Funds will target consumer electronics, smart EVs, on-device AI, and upstream smart manufacturing. This supports its 'Human-Car-Home' strategy and ambition to be a global hard-tech leader...

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Xiaomi commits RMB 200 bn to R&D; BYD ramps up internal testing for L3 mass production | Daily News Recap

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In our prior piece 'AI's Original Sin: Is NVIDIA the stimulant AI can’t quit?', Dolphin Research argued that the key shift for the AI supply chain in 2025 is the extreme upstream capture of value, which has thrown the system out of balance. This imbalance is reshaping incentives and risk-taking across the stack.With FOMO running high, AI spend keeps climbing, while rivalry among core players has become more explicit. Capital allocations are increasingly concentrated at the top of the chain.As the internet enters the AI era, regardless of how shifting inputs reshape bargaining power along the value chain, one ultimate question remains. After front-loaded investment in heavy capex, deep tech, and top talent with an approx. five-year depreciation cycle, is this ultimately a bubble?

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2026's Harsh AI Question: after bns AI Capex, Where will Returns Come From?

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1215 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector. MIIT granted the first L3 autonomous driving type approvals to Changan's Deepal SL03 and ARCFOX Alpha S6. The two models, tailored to urban congestion and highway scenarios, will run public-road pilots in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing, marking a move from tech testing to commercial pilots for L3 in China.NBS data show Nov. retail sales of consumer goods at RMB 4.3898tn (+1.3% YoY). That is the lowest monthly growth since 2023 in the post-Covid period...

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First L3 autonomous-driving models approved; retail sales growth retests the lows | Daily News Recap

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The following is Dolphin Research's compiled earnings call Trans for Broadcom (AVGO) FY2025 Q4. For our earnings take, please see 'Broadcom: Calling out NVDA, but did the pioneer blink first?'AVGO fell after-hours as management struck a cautious tone during the discussion. Topics included the AI order outlook and progress with new customers and orders.1) AI orders: The total AI backlog for AI-related components and heterogeneous processors (XPUs) topped $73bn, slated for delivery over the next 18 months (six quarters). They then explained...

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AVGO (Trans): Anthropic adds another 10bn;  73bn order is the floor

Financial Analysis

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In the early hours of Dec 12 Beijing time, AVGO released its FY2025 Q4 results after the U.S. close. The quarter ended Oct 2025.1) Overall performance: Revenue was $18.0bn, up 28.2% YoY. This beat the Street's $17.5bn.Revenue rose $2.0bn QoQ, driven by AI-related demand. AI remained the key driver.GPM was 68%. Excluding acquisition amortization and restructuring costs, adj. GPM was 76.6%, down 17bps QoQ...

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AVGO vs. NVDA: Did the challenger blink first?

AVGO First Take: Revenue and GPM were in line with market expectations this quarter, with growth largely driven by AI. AI revenue reached $6.5bn, up $1.3bn QoQ on increased TPU volume ramp. On an operating basis, excluding acquisition-related amortization and restructuring, GPM was 76.6%, down slightly QoQ. The decline reflects a mix shift toward lower-margin ASIC. For next quarter, the company guided revenue to $19.1bn, above Street estimates, driven by AI. AI revenue is expected to reach $8.2bn (vs. Street $7.0–7.5bn), implying a $1.7bn QoQ increase. Despite a solid print and guide, investors are more focused on progress with new customers and orders for next year. Given the previously disclosed large AI wins, the market is watching the company's growth trajectory into next year and beyond, including whether it can secure additional customers and orders. With Google's Gemini performing well, it offers an alternative compute stack beyond NVIDIA. Investors also expect Broadcom to win share in AI chips, a view reflected in its top-tier valuation. As a result, the focus this quarter is on management's updates and outlook for AI order flow next year and beyond. For more, follow Dolphin Research's subsequent notes and management Trans. $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

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Horizon Robotics: An NVDA alternative for high-end autonomous driving?

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Horizon Robotics: Can China’s AD substitute chips unseat NVDA?

应用材料AMAT

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Dolphin Research’s prior deep dive on AMAT outlined the company’s core product lines and its positioning across key equipment sub-sectors.This note links AMAT’s outlook and valuation to wafer fab capex trends.As $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) operates in semiconductor equipment at the top of the value chain, its demand is highly sensitive to upstream investment cycles.Its customers are wafer fabs across logic (TSMC, Intel) and memory (Samsung, SK hynix).Hence, our forecasts for AMAT’s performance...

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Memory Upcycle, AI Capex: Is AMAT Finally Set to Break Out?

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Rumors and media chatter had been building for weeks, including reports that Jensen Huang sparred with White House conservatives and warned that H200 sales to China might still be blocked. President Trump nevertheless announced that the U.S. Gov. will allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China.Nvidia's peers may also sell chips with H200-class specs to Chinese customers. The permission covers H200-class products only.The latest Blackwell architecture and the next-gen Rubin are not on the list. The U.S. Gov. will impose a 25% levy on each sale. As for Nvidia in Q4...

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H200 Greenlight: The Breakout Catalyst on NVDA's Path to $6tn?

NVIDIA Rumored to Begin Shipping H200 Chips to China in February 2026

NVIDIA's Head of Generalist Embodied AI states Tesla's FSD v14 passes the 'Physical Turing Test'

Exclusive: ByteDance to pour US$14 billion into Nvidia chips in 2026 as AI demand surges

NVIDIA to Showcase AI and Robotics Progress at CES 2026

DIGITIMES reviews the 10 defining moments that shaped Nvidia in 2025

xAI to Acquire New Building to Boost Data Center Capacity to Nearly 2 Gigawatts

RoboTechnik announces the completion of reliability testing for the 300mm double-sided wafer test platform jointly developed with NVIDIA and TSMC

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to Deliver Keynote at CES 2026

NVIDIA May Acquire AI21 Labs for up to $3 Billion

State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Promotes Digital Transformation with AI

NVIDIA releases GeForce 591.59 WHQL graphics card driver

Nvidia is already in talks for its next AI deal after Groq

Mizuho reiterates Outperform rating and $245 price target on Nvidia

Analysts predict 35% upside potential for Nvidia stock

Wall Street analyst raises NVIDIA's price target to $235, citing momentum from recent acquisitions

Nvidia Extends 100-Hour Monthly Cap to Most GeForce Now Users

Argent Capital Management LLC Boosts Holdings in NVIDIA

NVIDIA is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Israeli AI startup AI21 Labs.

Investment Bank Wedbush is Bullish on AI, Lists NVIDIA as a Top Pick

Media Previews NVIDIA's 'Feynman' GPU Planned for 2028

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Nvidia (NVDA) Ends Year Strong With $14B AI Chip Boost From ByteDance

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call