PDD

Citi published a research report stating that this year marks the 18th year that major Chinese e-commerce platforms have held the Singles' Day shopping festival, with mainstream platforms having launched promotional campaigns since mid-October. The bank observed that platform strategies are shifting toward direct price cuts without requiring bundled purchases, which is expected to help curb fake orders and reduce return rates. At the same time, subsidies are being directed more toward member groups with higher customer lifetime value, such as 88VIP and JD Plus, while merchants are being encouraged to widely adopt AI to improve operational efficiency.

The bank expects platforms to continue refraining from disclosing total GMV figures this year, with greater focus likely to be placed on category performance, user engagement and AI-driven sales indicators. After industry GMV growth of 4% YoY during the 618 shopping festival in 2026, Citi estimated that overall industry GMV during this year's Singles' Day will rise by low- to mid-single digits YoY, driven by faster growth in Douyin e-commerce, strong performance in JD-SW (09618.HK) -1.400 (-1.399%) Short selling $66.02M; Ratio 31.775% 's services category, and intense competition in quick commerce. Mainland Chinese big data company Syntun forecast that total GMV during this year's Singles' Day will increase 14.2% YoY to RMB1.7 trillion, including a 12.3% YoY rise in e-commerce GMV to RMB1.62 trillion, with Douyin ranking among the top three alongside Tmall and JD.

The bank added that during the first four hours of Tmall sales launched by Alibaba-W (90988.HK), 124 brands recorded GMV exceeding RMB100 million, while 27,681 brands achieved higher first-day sales than the same period last year, benefiting from merchants' AI applications on the platform and surging demand in subsidized categories such as digital electronics and smartphones. JD launched promotions from 12 October through official direct discounts without bundled purchases, with the number of transaction users on the opening day recording double-digit YoY growth. Douyin delivered strong performances in livestreaming and fast-moving consumer goods at the start of the campaign, while KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK) -0.900 (-3.323%) Short selling $108.44M; Ratio 29.836% focused on AI operational tools across its ecosystem and tiered traffic subsidies. In the quick commerce segment, transaction volume during the 618 festival surged 112.3% YoY, driven by MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) -2.050 (-2.879%) Short selling $162.43M; Ratio 22.086% 's MT Instashopping, Taobao Instant Commerce and JD Miaosong.

Citi maintained Buy ratings on Alibaba, JD and PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US) , while maintaining a Neutral rating on Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS.US) . (gc/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-10-29 12:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)