Broadline Retail

Today’s Key News Recap

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1204 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. The Beijing Consumer Association, in collaboration with eight major e-commerce platforms including JD.com, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, Douyin, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, and WeChat Live, signed the nation's first 'Commitment to Promote the Standardized Application of AI Technology.' Addressing issues such as AI digital human live streaming and virtual scene marketing, the core measures include 'transparent labeling, strict review, and traceable responsibility.' It clearly stipulates that AI-generated content must be prominently marked, and there will be a crackdown on fake labels among six major initiatives. The Beijing Consumer Association will track the implementation through volunteer experiences...

Meituan HK SDR 5to1

MEITUAN

LI AUTO-W

NVIDIA

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Meituan

Li Auto

GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF

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YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF

Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF

T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF

T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF

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Salesforce

Micron Tech

Direxion Semicon Bear 3X

Direxion Semicon Bull 3X

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Li Auto releases AI glasses Livis; Micron exits retail storage business to focus on AI | Today's Important News Recap

Conference Minutes

The following are the Minutes of the 3Q25 conference call for $PDD(PDD.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For the financial report commentary, please see &#34;Pinduoduo's Embarrassment: Rapid 'Aging,' but No Buyback.&#34; I. Review of Core Financial Information 1. The company's total revenue for this quarter increased by 9% year-on-year to RMB 108.3 billion, mainly driven by growth in online marketing services and transaction services. 2. Revenue from online marketing services and other businesses reached RMB 53.3 billion, up 8% year-on-year; transaction service revenue was RMB 54.9 billion, up 10%...

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Pinduoduo (Minutes): Still "fierce competition" and "unpredictable performance"

Financial Analysis

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On November 18th, before the U.S. stock market opened, $PDD(PDD.US) announced its Q3 2025 earnings. At that time, few could predict the results, and the once 'forever young' Pinduoduo now seems to have entered a mature phase from various perspectives. This quarter's performance is mixed; the positive aspect is that after the impact of state subsidies waned, the main site's profit began to recover. The concern, however, is that Pinduoduo seems to have completely lost its previously most striking 'growth potential.' Specifically: 1. Revenue appears decent but is actually not: Pinduoduo's total revenue for this quarter was approximately RMB 108.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%...

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Goldman Sachs

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Alibaba

JD.com

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KraneShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF

YieldMax BABA Option Income Strategy ETF

BABA 2x Long Daily ETF - GraniteShares

JD HK SDR 10to1

Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

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Pinduoduo's Embarrassment: Rapid 'Aging,' Yet No Repurchase

Pinduoduo 3Q25 Quick Interpretation: The performance of Pinduoduo, which was once unpredictable with its stock price often experiencing sharp rises and falls, has now become increasingly stable and &#34;predictable.&#34; This quarter's performance is largely in line with expectations, with both positives and negatives. 1. Firstly, this quarter's total revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, slightly outperforming the market expectation of 8.3%. Although the trend seems to have accelerated quarter-on-quarter, the more critical advertising revenue growth rate has further slowed significantly to a single-digit 8% year-on-year. The implied signal here is that either the GMV growth rate of Pinduoduo's main site is slowing faster than expected, or the merchant support program has led to a further year-on-year decline in monetization rate. Dolphin Research has always held the view that the growth of Pinduoduo's domestic main site will return to the industry average. However, since the benefits of state subsidies have started to decline this quarter, the market might expect Pinduoduo's relative disadvantage to be alleviated. It seems that JD.com, Alibaba, and others have attracted some of Pinduoduo's users with massive food delivery subsidies, leading to increased active users and frequency of use. 2. As the impact of tariffs on Temu has largely dissipated, the U.S. business has returned to normal operations, and other regional businesses are expanding rapidly. Driven by this, the growth rate of transactional revenue has rebounded to 10%, slightly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectations, and is also the reason for the rebound in total revenue growth. However, compared to more optimistic expectations from Goldman Sachs (around 59 billion), it seems that Temu's growth is not as strong. 3. This quarter's gross profit performance is basically in line with expectations, continuing to decline due to the impact of the revenue structure. The expectation gap comes from marketing expenses being about 2.6 billion less than expected, thereby leading to operating profit exceeding expectations by approximately the same scale. Dolphin Research believes that the main reason is that as the impact of state subsidies declines, the need for self-subsidized spending has also decreased. Meanwhile, the increase in Temu's marketing expenses may not be as much as imagined. $PDD(PDD.US) $KraneShares 2x Long PDD Daily ETF(KPDD.US)

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1118 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro 1. Today, both Hong Kong and A-shares collectively declined as the market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve continued to decrease. According to CME's &#34;FedWatch&#34;, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped to 42.9%, previously exceeding 70%. Federal Reserve Governor Waller also stated that if the job market rebounds, the necessity for an insurance rate cut will diminish. Additionally, the sell-off pressure on tech stocks and the Japanese bond market faced a sell-off wave due to concerns that the Kishida government will implement a large-scale fiscal expansion plan. Under multiple factors, global markets collectively declined...

Luckin Coffee

Alphabet - C

Alphabet

Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares

Direxion Daily GOOGL Bull 2X Shares

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Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1

Baidu HK SDR 10to1

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Trip.com HK SDR 50to1

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Global Markets Hit by 'Cold Wave'; Google AI Advances in Travel Services Track | Today's Important News Recap

Hot topic

Dolphin Research previously mentioned that although $PDD(PDD.US) has consistently emphasized no dividends or buybacks, any company that transitions from its growth phase to its maturity phase must address a core question: how to utilize the accumulated cash assets? This quarter, Pinduoduo's interest and investment income directly reached the level of 10 billion yuan (mainly from interest and stock investment income), which is already a significant presence compared to the 25.8 billion yuan operating profit from its main business for the quarter. Of course, from the perspective of quarterly volatility, the average single-quarter level is still around 5.3 billion yuan, not much different from the level of each quarter last year...

Earning billions in a single quarter from financial management! Is Pinduoduo aiming to be the next 'Buffett' by 'refusing to distribute dividends'?

The following are the minutes of Pinduoduo's FY25Q2 earnings call organized by Dolphin Research. For earnings interpretation, please refer to $PDD(PDD.US) &#34;Pinduoduo: Back to the Money Tree? Can't Compete with Management's 'Forced Compliance'&#34;. 1. Review of Core Financial Information 2. Detailed Content of the Earnings Call 2.1 Key Information from Executive Statements 1. &#34;Billion Core&#34; Support Plan: a. Merchant Support (Core Investment Direction): Assisting merchants in facing challenges, seeking new growth, and navigating market cycles. Since last August, significant cost savings for merchants have been achieved through fee reductions...

Pinduoduo (Minutes): Once again, they have cut themselves!

$PDD(PDD.US) once again experienced familiar post-earnings volatility. On August 25th, before the U.S. stock market opened, Pinduoduo announced its second-quarter earnings, with profits significantly exceeding expectations, briefly driving the stock price up by 10%. But how substantial is this earnings surprise? 1. Revenue met expectations exactly, with no surprises: After two consecutive quarters of revenue significantly missing expectations, Pinduoduo's total revenue for this quarter was approximately RMB 104 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Although the growth rate continued to slow, it was almost perfectly in line with market expectations. This was mainly due to Temu being affected by tariffs...

Pinduoduo: Back to the Money Tree? Can't Compete with Management's 'Forced Submission'

Pinduoduo 2Q25 Quick Interpretation: The most 'magical' Chinese concept stock, Pinduoduo, is here to deliver heart-pounding excitement again! At first glance, after a major setback in the first quarter, the second quarter marks a dazzling comeback, truly stunning! Pre-tax profit is almost back to its peak, reaching as high as 35.5 billion in a single quarter, over 30 billion in the second quarter. The market can easily calculate an annual profit exceeding 120 billion, and even after tax, it surpasses 100 billion RMB. Considering the company's reliable execution and future growth expectations, a 15X PE ratio comfortably places it above 200 billion USD. However, amidst the excitement, it is important to note that 10.4 billion of the pre-tax profit actually comes from interest income and investment returns. Dolphin Research specifically checked, and unlike other peers who invest recklessly when they have money, the company's investment strategy is very cautious. This portion of income is almost entirely derived from cash management tools, such as buying bonds. Last quarter, possibly because bond investment returns had not matured, there was only 200 million RMB. This quarter, it was realized, thus boosting this part of the income to 10 billion RMB. In fact, averaging over two quarters, it's around 5 billion RMB per quarter, not much different from past quarters. To elaborate: this interest income clearly demonstrates how wealthy an e-commerce company can be when it focuses on its main business, doesn't spend recklessly, and operates with unparalleled efficiency! Calculating single-quarter interest income at 5 billion, it accounts for one-third of the main business profit. In other words, when Pinduoduo needs to distribute dividends, it won't lack funds at all. Excluding the impact of interest income, the actual operating profit is 26.8 billion, exceeding the market expectation of 21.5 billion, still significantly higher than expected, though the level of astonishment is much reduced. Year-on-year, last year's operating profit was 32.6 billion, showing a noticeable decline. The reason is similar to the first quarter, likely due to the main site using substantial funds to compete with other e-commerce platforms more heavily influenced by state subsidies, to maintain Pinduoduo's user perception of the lowest prices online. According to Dolphin Research, in the second quarter, subsidies were likely provided through smart subsidy coupons, and merchants had to pay to bid for the right to issue these smart subsidy coupons, making the distribution of subsidy coupons more efficient. On the expenditure side, generous external marketing expenses remain relatively high, at 27.2 billion RMB for the quarter, with transaction-related income almost zero growth (with low subsidies like TEMU), higher than last year's 26 billion. However, internal expenditures remain quite frugal: R&amp;D saw almost zero growth quarter-on-quarter, even as everyone else invests in AI, and management expenses showed negative growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter (mainly due to reduced stock option incentive expenses). Overall, internal expenditure still validates Pinduoduo as a highly reliable company in execution. In terms of valuation, if the market currently believes that the company's profitability will be maintained as consumer subsidies gradually weaken and Pinduoduo adopts more intelligent subsidies, then the steady-state (without state subsidy impact) annual profit should indeed be above 120 billion RMB. With a nearly 15% growth rate in main advertising revenue, a 15X PE multiple should place the valuation at least around 220 billion USD. Additionally, the company has zero interest-bearing debt, with cash reserves (cash + short-term investments) close to 55 billion USD. When the company starts a dividend mode, the valuation could potentially reach 300 billion USD (of course, this cannot be expected now, as the company needs to fully exhaust its growth story first).$PDD(PDD.US)

In recent days, the instant retail battle triggered by JD.com has seen several new developments. In summary, the boundaries of competition are continuously expanding, and more competitors are being drawn into the fray, either actively or passively.Dolphin Research believes this indicates a scenario where the broad online retail/service platforms may face a level of competition no less intense than the 'Hundred Regiments Battle,' 'Community Group Buying,' or 'Price Wars,' encompassing nearly all major players, entering an 'era of chaotic battles' without clear business boundaries.All major internet companies with significant user and traffic scale may find themselves attacking competitors' core businesses on multiple fronts while also defending against similar incursions into their own core businesses. Historically, during such chaotic battles, almost everyone ends up as losers, and the aftermath is often a 'messy battlefield.'Chronologically, the recent developments are as follows:1. Firstly, JD.com's founder Richard Liu, in a small-scale communication, high-profile confirmed that JD.com will not only enter the food delivery sector but also the hotel and travel OTA sector, establishing a new channel business unit to handle these areas. This marks the expansion of the competition from instant retail to the hotel and travel industry. From Richard Liu's words, Dolphin Research believes there is a significant possibility of further expansion into in-store business.The original text from LatePost reports: 'For the supply chain of catering, the supply chain of hotels, in the future, we will also have the supply chain for beauty, medical aesthetics, hospitals, and all the various formats you see on the roadside like head massage and foot washing. We will provide supply chain services to them through new channels.'2. Last weekend, LatePost reported that Pinduoduo is building warehouses in some first-tier cities, with plans to launch instant delivery services as early as August, delivering goods to the door with timeliness similar to JD.com's express delivery. The report also claimed that Pinduoduo currently has no intention of joining the instant retail battle or involving itself in food delivery.Dolphin Research believes that with Pinduoduo's domestic main site no longer having a clear growth advantage and overseas Temu significantly impacted by geopolitical factors, it is indeed time to consider new investment and growth directions. In this context, optimizing the slightly 'outdated' Duoduo Maicai (next-day delivery under the community group buying model) to a faster instant delivery model is a preliminary entry point. However, Dolphin Research believes that although the company currently denies it, Pinduoduo may not stop there. If the instant delivery business of Duoduo Maicai achieves some success, once the front warehouse network and instant delivery capabilities are initially established, it may not be unlikely to attempt platform-type instant delivery businesses similar to Meituan Flash Purchase, or even food delivery. 3. Finally, today Alibaba also announced the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into the China E-commerce Business Group, reporting to Jiang Fan. Although the announcement did not disclose other information besides the organizational structure change, its intention is clearly similar to JD.com's.Integrating Ele.me into the China E-commerce Business Group is evidently to break the boundaries between product instant delivery (Taobao Flash Delivery) and food instant delivery (Ele.me), integrating resources to better compete in the broadly defined instant retail industry. As for integrating Fliggy (hotel and travel business) into the China E-commerce Business Group, its intention and possible effects are not yet clear. Besides a certain mutual traffic diversion effect, what other synergies can be achieved remains to be seen. What is clear now is that similar moves by Alibaba and JD.com indicate that e-commerce, instant retail, and hotel and travel (which may later include in-store business) will further integrate, with business boundaries becoming more blurred. Future competition in the internet industry may turn into a 'great chaotic battle' encompassing various businesses and players. $PDD(PDD.US) $MEITUAN(03690.HK) $JD.com(JD.US) $BABA-W(09988.HK)

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Chinese Internet Giants Show Profitability in Overseas Businesses, Reports Show Strong Growth

Pinduoduo Achieves E-commerce Market Growth and Adapts to Subsidy Policies

Pinduoduo Sells 53 Degree 500ml Flying Heaven Maotai at 1399 Yuan Per Bottle

Pinduoduo Adjusts Price Protection Rules to Include Bilion-Yuan Discount Coupons

Hel Ved Capital Increased Holdings in Pinduoduo in Q2

Pinduoduo Donates HKD 10 Million for Fire Rescue in Hong Kong's Ma Po Hong Fu Garden

JPMorgan Maintains Neutral Rating on Pinduoduo and Raises Price Target

e-commerce seller required to pay huge tax arrears due to tax compliance issues

Pinduoduo's Q3 Earnings Show Revenue and Profit Growth Slowdown

Pinduoduo Boosts Guizhou Sour Soup Brand Expansion, Dairy Firms Face Revenue Decline and Transformation Pressure

Morgan Stanley Analyst Maintains Buy Rating for Pinduoduo

Pinduoduo's Temu Platform Strategy Adjustments Lead to Overseas Business Recovery

Nomura Maintains Neutral Rating for Pinduoduo ADR

CMB International Upgrades Pinduoduo's Profit Forecast for 2025-2027 and Maintains Overweight Rating

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