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MSFT

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) 1Q25 first take: As the first earnings report after the change in accounting standards, it does bring some impact on our understanding of the financial details, but it also gives us an opportunity to focus more on the company's overall and most critical comparable business performance. From Dolphin Research's initial perspective, this quarter's earnings report is a pass, but with both positive and negative aspects.1) First, in terms of overall performance, total revenue increased by 16% year-over-year (including contributions from the acquisition of Activision Blizzard), slightly accelerating from the previous quarter's 15.2% and also slightly exceeding market expectations by 1.7%. However, on the profit side, operating profit of $30.6 billion, while better than market expectations, grew only 13.6% year-over-year, lagging behind revenue growth. The operating profit margin declined both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, officially marking the end of Microsoft's profit margin expansion phase, sliding into the contraction phase due to high AI-related Capex.2) At the same time, this quarter's Capex increased quarter-over-quarter to a full $20 billion, nearly 8% higher than expected. We also noted that this quarter's D&amp;A has doubled compared to the same period last year, increasing by over $3 billion. Free cash flow, dragged down by high Capex, has already declined by 7% year-over-year. The pressure of massive AI infrastructure investments on financial metrics has begun to fully manifest.3) By segment, the actual revenue growth of Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and Intelligent Cloud (IC) this quarter was in line with or slightly better than expectations, meeting but not exceeding expectations. On the other hand, the More Personal Computing segment, due to the impact of the Activision Blizzard acquisition and strong advertising business growth (benefiting from Copilot search), exceeded expectations by about 5%.4) For key core businesses, Azure's growth rate was 33%, down 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter, basically in line with market expectations—no surprises. The guidance for the next quarter points to a further slowdown of 2-3 percentage points, not indicating a continued strong rise in cloud computing demand due to AI but rather a continued decline. Combined with profits already starting to decline due to Capex investments, it gives the impression of high investment without a real demand explosion. Another core business, 365 Commercial Cloud under PBP, grew 15% this quarter, flat with the previous quarter. Guidance for the next quarter also points to a slowdown of about 2 percentage points, with no signs of demand explosion from AI features like Office Copilot.5) The only comforting aspect is that the constant currency growth rate of newly signed commercial bookings this quarter reached 23%, up 4 percentage points from the previous quarter, suggesting that incremental demand may indeed exist. However, it is still in the contract stage and has not yet been reflected in financial metrics, leaving room for potential future release.

Microsoft

Intercom Announces $250 Million Debt Financing to Advance AI Customer Service System Development

Hercules Capital Inc. Confirmed to Maintain BBB Investment Grade Credit Rating by DBRS

Ares Management Corp. Acquires Arcmont Asset Management's Private Credit Portfolio

Ares Capital Amends SMBC Facility to Enhance Liquidity

Main Street Capital released FY2025 Q4 earnings on February 26 After-Market EST, actual revenue USD 145.54 M (forecast USD 143.1 M), actual EPS USD 1.4593 (forecast USD 1.3179)

Main Street Capital released FY2025 earnings on February 26 After-Market EST, actual revenue USD 566.39 M (forecast USD 564.04 M), actual EPS USD 5.52 (forecast USD 5.3666)

Ares Management Corporation Reports 2025 Fiscal Year Performance

UBS cuts Ares Management target price to $148

Main Street Capital to Release FY2025 Q4 Earnings on February 26 After-Market EST, Forecast Revenue USD 142.87 M, EPS USD 1.2655

Hercules Capital released FY2025 Q4 earnings on February 12 After-Market EST, actual revenue USD 137.43 M (forecast USD 141.57 M), actual EPS USD 0.4841 (forecast USD 0.4891)

Hercules Capital released FY2025 Annual Earnings on February 12 After-Market (EST), actual revenue USD 532.49 M (forecast USD 536.63 M), actual EPS USD 1.8542 (forecast USD 1.8679)

Ares Management Director Ashish Bhutani Announces Acquisition of Class A Common Stock

Coller Capital Completes Transaction to Extend Ares Management's Private Credit Portfolio Lifespan

Ares Capital CEO Buys Company Shares

Ares CEO expects capital allocation to grow in 2026

Ares Management Q4 Earnings Report Misses Estimates

Hercules Capital to release FY2025 Q4 earnings on February 12 After-Market EST, forecast revenue USD 141.57 M, EPS USD 0.4891

Golub Capital BDC released FY2026 Q1 earnings on February 4 After-Market (EST), actual revenue USD 207.01 M (forecast USD 208.9 M), actual EPS USD 0.2474 (forecast USD 0.376)

Ares Capital released FY2025 Q4 earnings on February 4, Pre-Market EST, with actual revenue of USD 793 M (forecast USD 793.84 M) and actual EPS of USD 0.4092 (forecast USD 0.4977)

Ares Capital released FY2025 earnings on February 4 Pre-Market (EST), actual revenue USD 3.052 B (forecast USD 3.054 B), actual EPS USD 1.8583 (forecast USD 1.9471)

Acurx Pharmaceuticals

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Tradr 2X Long NVTS Daily ETF

Actelis Networks

Roma Green Finance

TanTech

AMC Robotics

Leverage Shares 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF

CVMC

MSSM

MSLC

FNCL

BXMT

In March 2026, the US private lending market faced significant redemption pressures, with major funds like BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund limiting redemptions to 5% despite requests exceeding 9%. Other funds, including those from Blackstone and Morgan Stanley, also experienced similar issues. The wave of redemptions is attributed to structural mismatches, market concerns, and rising default rates. This situation raises systemic risks in the financial markets, reminiscent of the pre-2007 crisis, as private lending approaches $2 trillion in size, potentially impacting asset management firms' stock prices.

CoinLive

Calvert US Mid-Cap Core Responsible Index ETF

Morgan Stanley Pathway Sm-Md Cp Eq ETF

Morgan Stanley Pathway Large Cap Eq ETF

Calvert US Large-Cap Diversity Equity & Inclusion Index ETF

Blackstone

BlackRock

Calvert US Select Equity ETF

ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg

Morgan Stanley

VG Financial

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

Fidelity MSCI Financials Index

Calvert US Large-Cap Core Responsible Index ETF

Blackstone MortgageTrust

How will the wave of redemptions from private credit funds affect the financial and crypto markets?

JABS

DABS

Franklin Resources, Inc. (NYSE:BEN) reported a preliminary assets under management (AUM) of $1.74 trillion for February 2026, up from $1.71 trillion in January. The increase is attributed to favorable market conditions. Additionally, the company is listed among the 14 Low PE High Dividend Stocks to consider for investment.

Janus Henderson Asset-Backed Secs ETF

DoubleLine Asset-Backed Securities ETF

Franklin Resources

Franklin Resources (BEN) reports $1.74T in AUM for February as markets lift assets

Reuters

Morgan Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge

TPG (TPG) has faced significant share price declines, with a 41% drop over the past three months and a 26% drop in the last month. Despite this, the company reports a revenue of $4.67 billion and a net income of $123.77 million. Analysts suggest TPG is undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $68.87, indicating potential for growth driven by expansion into private wealth and insurance channels. However, concerns about fundraising growth and M&A integration could impact future earnings. The current P/E ratio of 54.7x suggests market optimism may be high.

Simplywall

Assessing TPG (TPG) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness And Mixed Growth Signals

Apollo Global Management is enhancing transparency in its private credit holdings by planning to disclose net asset values (NAVs) of its credit funds monthly, with an eventual goal of daily NAVs and third-party valuations. This move comes amid increased scrutiny of private credit valuations following notable company collapses. The $1.8 trillion private credit market faces challenges in asset valuation due to infrequent transactions. Apollo's initiative may encourage similar practices among peers, aiming to alleviate investor concerns. However, Apollo's stock fell 2.1% in trading, reflecting a broader decline in private equity stocks.

Apollo Global

Apollo aims to mark private credit daily, eventually - report

Blackstone and Blue Owl Capital are collaborating on a new investment by acquiring a minority stake in Atlas Holdings, a private equity firm specializing in the turnaround of complex industrial businesses. The financial details of the deal remain undisclosed. This investment is made through Blackstone GP Stakes and Blue Owl's GP Strategic Capital units, which focus on minority interests in established private equity managers. Atlas Holdings, founded in 2002 and based in Greenwich, Connecticut, operates around 30 companies in the industrial, manufacturing, and distribution sectors.

GuruFocus

Blue Owl Capital

Blackstone Teams Up For New Private Equity Bet

513750

Impianti Revises 2026 Financial Calendar and Confirms Key Reporting Dates

Tip Ranks

GF Fund CSI HK Connect Financials(ex Banks) Thematic ETF

Hwabao WP CSI Banks ETF

Huaan CSI Banks ETF

Yinhua CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage ETF

Fullgoal CSI 800 Banks ETF

Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF

Guotai CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage ETF

ChinaAMC CSI Banks ETF

Hwabao WP CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage ETF

ChinaAMC SSE Financials Sector ETF Initiating Fund

WP CSI Banks ETF

E Fund CSI 300 Financials (ex Banks) ETF

China Southern CSI Banks ETF

China Merchants CSI BANK AH Price ETF

Impianti Revises 2026 Financial Calendar and Confirms Key Reporting Dates

Enterprise Group to Release Financial Results for Q4 2025 and the December 31, 2025 Year End on March 12, 2026 After Market Close | ETOLF Stock News

StockTitan

Enterprise Group to Release Financial Results for Q4 2025 and the December 31, 2025 Year End on March 12, 2026 After Market Close | ETOLF Stock News

Blue Owl fell 3.6%, hitting an intraday low since October 2022

Wallstreetcn

JPMorgan Chase has marked down several loans held by private-credit groups, signaling concerns over deteriorating credit quality in the $2 trillion private equity industry. This move raises alarms as it is uncommon for JPMorgan to remark loans negatively. The private credit market, which serves riskier borrowers, is facing scrutiny due to exposure to troubled software firms and recent actions by asset managers like BlackRock and Blue Owl. CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed caution in lending against software assets, highlighting the growing unease in the market.

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long JPM ETF

JPMorgan Chase

More Bad News for Private Credit as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Marks Down Several Loans

KKR-D

KKR & CO INC 6.25% MAND CONV PREF SHARES SER D

FS KKR Capital

KKR's publicly traded private credit fund has seen pressure, CFO says

Apollo is enhancing transparency by providing more frequent updates on the valuation of its private credit holdings. This initiative comes amid rising redemption requests from similar funds, which has created unease in the market. Apollo aims to address investor concerns and improve its financial operations' transparency.

Apollo Enhances Transparency in Private Credit Holdings Amid Market Concerns

JMTG

JP Morgan has marked down the value of loans in its private-credit groups, particularly targeting software companies seen as vulnerable to AI replacement. This move reduces the capital available for lending in the sector, amid warnings from CEO Jamie Dimon about a potential market crisis reminiscent of 2008. The private credit market, valued at $2 trillion, is experiencing a liquidity crisis as investors rush to exit tech-heavy portfolios, leading firms like Blackstone and Blackrock to limit withdrawals amid rising redemption requests.

cityam

JPMorgan Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF

JP Morgan marks down private credit loans amid AI jitters

ARES

Ares Management plans to launch its first local currency private credit fund in Thailand, targeting high-quality corporates. The fund aims to raise capital mainly from local insurance firms and is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for private credit in Asia, particularly as local banks become more selective in lending. This initiative comes amid rising interest in Asia-based private credit funds, seen as a hedge against market turmoil. Ares, managing US$623 billion in assets, is also working on a regional special situations fund.

Businesstimes News

ARES Management LP

Ares plans its first local currency private credit fund in Asia

OBDC

Blackstone and Blue Owl Capital have acquired a minority stake in private equity firm Atlas Holdings, specializing in complex situations. The financial terms were not disclosed. The investment was made through their respective GP units. Atlas, founded in 2002, operates 30 industrial and manufacturing businesses. Blackstone's CIO highlighted Atlas's ability to transform businesses, while Atlas's co-founder noted the strategic support from Blackstone and Blue Owl will enhance their talent attraction and retention. Following the announcement, Blackstone's stock rose 1.1%, while Blue Owl's fell 1.9%.

businessinsider

Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital acquire stake in PE firm Atlas

(Transfer) $Amazon(AMZN.US) exceeded expectations, and like the other three, the margin is good + higher capex, and capex exploded! $75 billion, nearly $5 billion more than market expectations. $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) rose in response, driving $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) up 1%. The 2025 CAPEX guidance was not provided, only stating &#34;we'll spend more than that in 2025.&#34; Market expectations were only $73 billion, likely to be adjusted to around $80 billion. If capex starts to increase in H2 2024, then in addition to AWS competing for H200 and GB200, Marvell's customized Trainium2, which will accelerate mass production starting in H2 2024, will definitely be a procurement focus. Previously, we updated AWS's 2025 CoWoS adjustment at TSMC, consistent with the direction of capex exceeding expectations.AWS's growth rate of +19% slightly missed, but it's okay as profits beat expectations significantly. The revenue guidance is also good, indicating that Q4 is expected to accelerate.Additionally, it was mentioned that AI revenue is in the tens of billions of dollars and still growing at triple digits (doubling), so the estimated growth rate of Microsoft's $10 billion AI revenue for next year is also not exaggerated.

Marvell Tech

NVIDIA

Amazon

Pro Gbl Listed Pvt(PEX.US)

How will the wave of redemptions from private credit funds affect the financial and crypto markets?

Franklin Resources (BEN) reports $1.74T in AUM for February as markets lift assets

Morgan Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge

Assessing TPG (TPG) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness And Mixed Growth Signals

Apollo aims to mark private credit daily, eventually - report