Breaking: Michael Burry just reversed one trade and doubled another
He:• Bought back 25% of Semiconductor ETF $SMH puts• Bought more Build-A-Bear $Build A Bear(BBW.US)• Doubled Nasdaq 100 $QQQ puts, early 2027 expiryBurry said “I added back what I sold” on the $SMH puts, per his Substack
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Bank of America now sees the Fed hiking at each of its next 3 meetings
BofA economists added a January 2027 hike to their call, on top of the December and March hikes they already expectedThat would take the fed funds rate from 3.75%-4.00% today to a peak of 4.50%-4.75%Their old call was 2 more hikes at a quarterly pace, topping out at 4.25%-4.50%"After Oct CPI, the Fed looks further behind the curve on inflation," BofA economist Aditya Bhave wrote, adding that the Fed "no longer has the luxury of hiking at a quarterly pace"BofA now tracks core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, at 3.3% a yearThe call lands the same morning wholesale prices hit +6.5% YoY, the hottest reading since 2022When one of the biggest bank desks pencils in back to back hikes, the rate cut crowd has officially run out of road. Long duration tech in $QQQ and bonds in $TLT feel that first, and nobody should be surprised if a 5% fed funds rate is the next number the market starts to priceSource: StockMarket.News
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$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$QQQ Put(QQQ261113P661000.US)it’s safer to buy an etf than single stock although the returns might not as phenomenal, but it also won’t be as devastating.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - S
BREAKING 🚨 US wholesale inflation just hit 6.5%, the highest since November 2022
Producer prices rose 0.3% in October, a touch below the 0.4% forecast, after a 1.4% jump in SeptemberGoods prices are up 10.2% from a year ago, the biggest 12-month surge since October 2022Truck freight prices jumped 3.9% in one month and drove more than 80% of the rise in servicesCore PPI rose 0.3%, right in line with expectationsMarkets are still fully pricing a Fed rate HIKE at the December 8 to 9 meetingA softer monthly print is nice, but 6.5% a year on the wholesale side means more price pressure is still in the pipe for consumers, and that keeps the Fed and the 10 year in charge of $SPY $QQQ $TLTSource: StockMarket.News
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Excessive rate hikes would be inappropriate as the energy supply shock is set to abate. - $QQQ $SPY
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US PPI Inflation Data (Oct): $QQQ $SPY
➤ Core PPI MoM: 0.3% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.8%)➤ Core PPI YoY: 5.0% (Forecast 5.0%, Previous 5.0%)➤ PPI MoM: 0.3% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 1.4%)➤ PPI YoY: 6.5% (Forecast 6.6%, Previous 6.3%) - S
The US just ran a $404 billion budget deficit in October, the biggest October deficit in history
That is up 42% from $284 billion a year ago and breaks the old October record set in 2025Spending jumped 12% to a record-for-October $773 billion while tax receipts fell 9% to $369 billionMedicare ($170B), Social Security ($143B) and defense ($129B) led outlays, and net interest alone cost $103 billion in a single monthTreasury says part of the jump is timing, since some military, veterans and Medicare payments were pulled into October because Nov 1 fell on a weekendEven so, fiscal 2027 is starting right after a nearly $2 trillion deficit year, with the 10-year yield already back above 5.1% after weak auctions this weekMore deficits means more Treasury supply, and that keeps pressure on long-term yields, mortgage rates and the valuations of $QQQ and $TLT at a moment when bond buyers are already pushing backSource: StockMarket.News
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US stocks edged higher (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.1%) ahead of October PPI data as traders boosted bets on near-term Fed rate hikes, and shrugged off Jensen Huang’s dramatic exit from Nvidia. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) rose 2.8% on its GPU lead and low valuation (C2027 P/E 10x), while some rivals like $AMD(AMD.US) and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) expected to benefit from NVDA’s leadership crisis fell. Markets now price over 100% odds of a Fed rate hike next month on strong job growth and higher core inflation, though brent crude’s 22% drop in the last two weeks and the likely wind-down of the Iran war could fuel talk of rate cuts in 2027. S&P 2026 EPS of $369 remain solid at +33% YoY, yet the FY2026 P/E of 20.6x and 4.8% earnings yield offers negative risk premium versus 10year treasuries.
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$Spdr Select Tech(XLK.US)
Why buying makes sense: The drop looks driven by sentiment, not earnings. On Nov 5 the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.4% and chips 12%, its worst day since 2020, yet the S&P 500 is still up about 7% for 2026 and corporate earnings are growing strongly. XLK now trades at roughly 21x forward earnings, down from about 32x trailing in October, with estimated 3-5 year EPS growth above 30% (State Street). It closed near $162 on Nov 6, about 18-20% below its 52-week high near $198-203. Historically, tech corrections often find a floor within three to six months.
Why caution is needed: Momentum is negative. The Nasdaq has fallen four weeks straight, the VIX is near 26, and Fed hike odds remain high after a strong jobs report. Nvidia (about 15% of XLK) reports Nov 17, and AI-regulation worries after the midterms could extend the selling.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - D
Dolphin Research Daily | Jensen Huang Out: AMD and Broadcom Feast, Neoclouds Take the Hit!
Jensen Huang has left after all. Is the overhang finally cleared, or will this unearth more problems with more drama to come?
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Dolphin Daily