Contrary to what many on X believe, I am not a $Tesla(TSLA.US) hater. From 2019-2023, $Tesla(TSLA.US) was my largest position. In investing, valuation vs price has to matter and if you’re not regularly calculating the difference, you’re not a serious investor. My issue with $Tesla(TSLA.US) now is that price seems high relative to my estimate of value, so I either wait for future earnings and cash flows to move higher (they are declining right now - see below), or for the stock price to move lower to become attractive again.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) stock has significantly underperformed NDX over the past 1, 3, and 5 years, as 2026-2030 earnings estimates have declined, as automation has become a commodity, and as valuation became stretched. So no, I’m not a TSLA hater; I just don’t care for the current price relative to my estimate of value.
Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF
QYLD----
Share your thoughts
What's on your mind?
0 / 2,000
- M
Michael Burry's complete holdings, per his Substack
Top tier:• MercadoLibre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US) [Long, 12%]• Deckers $Deckers Outdoor(DECK.US) [Long]Second tier (9% each):• Molina Healthcare $Molina Healthcare(MOH.US) [Long]• Temple & Webster $TPW [Long]Third tier (undisclosed %):• JD $JD.com(JD.US) [Long]• Birkenstock $Birkenstock(BIRK.US) [Long]• Adobe $Adobe(ADBE.US) [Long]• HCA Healthcare $HCA Healthcare(HCA.US) [Long]• Fiserv $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US) [Long]• Build-A-Bear Workshop $Build A Bear(BBW.US) [Long]• Veeva Systems $Veeva Systems -CL(VEEV.US) [Long]• Freddie Mac $Freddie Mac(FMCC.US) [Long]• PayPal $Paypal(PYPL.US) [Long]• QXO $QXO(QXO.US) [Long]• Ero Copper $ERO Copper(ERO.US) [Long]• BYD $BYDFF [Long]Call options:• JD $JD.com(JD.US) [Call, 2029]• Zoetis $Zoetis(ZTS.US) [Call, 2029]• Sprouts Farmers Market $Sprouts Farmers(SFM.US) [Call, 2028]Put book (bearish, largest to smallest):• Nasdaq 100 $NDX [Put, Sept 2027]• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) [Put, Sept 2027]• Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) [Put, Sept 2027]• Semiconductor ETF $SOXX [Put, Sept 2027]• Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) [Put, Dec 2027]• Caterpillar $Caterpillar(CAT.US) [Put, Dec 2027]• Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) [Put, June 2027]• Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) [Put, June 2027]• MetLife $MetLife(MET.US) [Put, 2029]Full exits:• Lululemon $Lululemon(LULU.US) [Long] - Swapped for Deckers• Fannie Mae $Federal National Mortgage Association(FNMA.US) [Long] - Entirety into Freddie Mac• Flutter $Flutter ENT(FLUT.US) [Long] - Rotated into Lululemon• Zoetis $Zoetis(ZTS.US) [Long] - Stock swapped for 2029 calls• Sprouts Farmers $Sprouts Farmers(SFM.US) [Long] - swapped 2028 calls• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) [Short] - Rolled into Sept 2027 puts• CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) [Short] - Covered, no puts yet• $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Nebius(NBIS.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Oracle(ORCL.US), $Caterpillar(CAT.US), $SOXX [Short] - All covered, replaced with putsSummary: Burry's book almost entirely puts instead of shorts on the AI basket he's been bearish on. He's "moving timelines up" on when he expects the bubble to burst, and he's using tax-loss season to swap LULU→DECK and FNMA→FMCC while buying into names like Ero Copper, QXO, and BYD outside the AI trade - O
📉 The Market Just Needs a Reason to Sell Off!
📊 Looking at the US futures, the Dow Jones is up 0.73%, the S&P 500 is up 1.12%, and the Nasdaq 100 is leading with a 1.74% gain. But remember, a green market today doesn’t guarantee a green market tomorrow!
🐶 Sometimes, the market doesn’t need terrible news to fall. It just needs a reason for investors to take profits. It could be a bank selloff, board lot changes, disappointing earnings, or concerns about valuations.
💰 My strategy? Stay prepared, keep some cash available, and watch for opportunities instead of chasing prices. When everyone is greedy, I stay cautious. When panic creates attractive valuations, I start looking for bargains. The market loves surprises, and patience is my best weapon! 🐾@Captain Leo
Featured⭐️ Community Spotlight | The Banks Got Cheaper to Buy. Then Everyone Sold Them.On Monday SGX cut the board lot on DBS, OCBC and UOB to 10 shares — one lot of DBS fell from S$7,721 to S$772. By Thursday the same three banks were more than 60% of all short selling on the market, and members had taken both halves apart.
- G
I believe $Tesla(TSLA.US) is a great company with a unique opportunity in front of it to transform how we travel. But loving a company doesn’t mean you should love the stock. Many investors on X don’t get the basic investing concept that valuation matters — even for great companies. TSLA FY’26 P/E of 234x vs +45% forward eps growth (5.2x PEG) is rich by any standard.
5-year returns: $Tesla(TSLA.US) +43%, NDX +111%. - G
US stocks neared fresh highs pre-market Tuesday (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.3%) as Brent crude fell 2% to $98/bbl and the 10-year yield dropped to 5.27%, easing inflation concerns. Equity gains are being driven by earnings and AI infrastructure spending, not multiple expansion. Chipmakers continued to rise after last week’s strong Micron strong results with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) hitting a record high. $Tesla(TSLA.US) gained +0.7% to $380, extending two days of gains on last week’s strong 3Q deliveries. S&P 2026 EPS estimates of $366 (+32% YoY) imply a 21.2x P/E and 4.7% earnings yield, and remain inverted versus 10year treasuries. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) largely due to a stretched valuation, falling longer-term estimates, and continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy.
- S
Nasdaq-100 Hits New Record on Tech Rally, 7x Long DLC Rises 7%; SpaceX Surges 7%
Wall Street rallied on Friday (2 October), as weaker-than-expected jobs data helped to ease concerns over elevated yields.The tech-heavy $NASDAQ-100(.NDX.US) surged 1% to a new record high. Amplifying...
Samsung's Record Profit Can't Lift Memory - O
Featured: My Gold Wheel Strategy — Selling Cash-Secured Puts and Covered Calls on Gold
.🥇 Part 1: My Gold Wheel Strategy — Selling Cash-Secured Puts and Covered Calls on Gold🐶 My Options Puppy Approach to Gold🐶 I have always liked the idea of using options not only to speculate, but als...
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - G
$Tesla(TSLA.US) has now reported two consecutive very strong delivery numbers. On Friday, it reported 3Q delivs of 486.5K vs 462.0K consensus. That TSLA delivs were down just -2% YoY vs TSLA’s record 2025 3Q, when the $7,500 EV credit was expiring, says it all. This followed TSLA’s blowout 2Q, when it delivered 480K vehicles vs WS expectations of 406K.
Investors are now more focused on TSLA’s efforts to scale up unsupervised autonomy in front of competitors, where TSLA’s generalized FSD technology is clearly superior, but its scale up has fallen far short of management’s guidance (current guidance unsupervised autonomous miles compounding at 10%+ per week; prior guidance unsupervised autonomy with no safety drivers in 8-10 metro areas by 2025 year-end, and prior to that in markets addressing 50% of the U.S. population by 2025 year-end). Today TSLA unsupervised autonomy has been approved for use in six U.S. metros across Texas and Florida (Austin, Dallas, Houston in TX; Miami, Orlando, and Tampa in FL) with the San Francisco Bay Area on deck and Las Vegas approved for permit but still not live. Waymo has been authorized for public fully driverless rides in 15 U.S. metros, including Phoenix, the Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Denver, Nashville, and Las Vegas. Waymo operates roughly 4,000+ driverless vehicles nationwide. Tesla had about 589 vehicles registered in Texas as fully autonomous (420 Model Ys and 169 Cybercabs) as of October 2.YTD TSLA -18% vs NDX +22%.Long image
- K
Good in-depth and very informative fundamental analysis. Thank you for sharing.
Featured🏦 DBS Bank Beginner Guide — Part 2🏦 DBS Bank Beginner Guide — Part 2How I Read DBS Quarterly Results Before Looking at the DividendIn Part 1, I explained why DBS interests me as a Singapore bank investor.I looked at its DBS/POSB franc...
- O
Featured🏦 DBS Bank Beginner Guide — Part 2
🏦 DBS Bank Beginner Guide — Part 2How I Read DBS Quarterly Results Before Looking at the DividendIn Part 1, I explained why DBS interests me as a Singapore bank investor.I looked at its DBS/POSB franc...
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
